After a strong 2024 campaign that was delayed due to offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip, New York Mets starter David Peterson is proving that his breakout last year was no fluke. With injuries crushing the rest of his rotation mates, Peterson was deservedly added to the NL’s All-Star pitching staff.

Peterson has unquestionably pitched like an ace this season, and with only one year of team control remaining, it might be time for David Stearns to consider locking the southpaw up with an extension before his price tag inflates any further.

How much would such an extension really cost? What would the terms look like? And what can Mets fans expect should news of the two sides talking about a deal actually emerge?

Here’s a realistic breakdown of what it would take for the Mets to lock up David Peterson

In order to price out what it would cost to extend Peterson, a few pertinent factors need to be considered. First is where he is in the arbitration process. The Mets will only be buying out one year of arbitration, meaning that any salary beyond 2026 would come in at near-market rates.

Second, is precedent. Many pitchers over the last few years have gotten extensions from their clubs, but that doesn’t mean that all are fair comps. A lot depends on the player’s age, track record, remaining years of control, and even his handedness.

Third, there are David Stearns’ preferences to consider. Since taking over the Mets front office, Stearns has exercised caution when it comes to the contracts he hands out to starting pitchers. Three years seems to be his line in the sand, so we’ll take that as a cue. That makes sense for Peterson as well. The southpaw turns 30 in September, so a three-year extension would take him through the 2028 season when he will turn 33.

Lastly, the pitching market has exploded in recent years, with hurlers like the Angels’ Yusei Kikuchi landing a deal that pays him $21 million annually despite entering the year with a career 4.57 ERA. That deal doesn’t look half bad now, with Kikuchi being selected to the AL All-Star team.

A relatively clean comp for what we can expect with Peterson is the deal the Tampa Bay Rays gave their now former starter, Jeffrey Springs. Like Peterson, Springs was approaching his 30th birthday, had one additional year of arbitration remaining (and had been playing on a salary that paid him $4 million, similar to the $4.63 million Peterson is making this year), and had a spotty track record of staying healthy and productive prior to his breakout.

Springs’ 2022 season saw him log 135.1 innings and post a 2.46 ERA, not unlike the 109 innings, 3.06 mark that Peterson has compiled this season, nor the 2.90 ERA he recorded over 121 innings last year.

Springs’ deal paid him $5.25 million for what would be his final arbitration year, and then back-to-back $10.5 million seasons in 2025 and 2026, and also includes a club option for $15 million in 2027. Using that as a baseline, we can forecast the following for Peterson.

A salary of $6 million for 2026 to cover his final arbitration year. 2027 would be his first free-agent year that is being bought out, and that will come at a price of $12.5 million. Finally, the third and final year of the deal would come in at $15 million. If Stearns was feeling generous, he could throw in a club option for another $15 million in 2029, with a $1.5 million buyout if not picked up.

That would put the total value of a hypothetical Peterson extension at three years for $33.5 million, with the potential to rise to four years, $48.5 million should the option get picked up. If Peterson continues to pitch the way he has, it would be an incredible value for the Mets. If he follows in Springs’ footsteps, it could turn into a significant overpay.