Roki Sasaki Likely to Spurn Dodgers for Unlikely Reason

The Los Angeles Dodgers are fresh off a World Series championship, have two Japanese stars in their clubhouse, and have a strong track record of developing major league pitching talent. What better place for a rookie pitcher from Japan to begin his major league career, right? Perhaps not.

Roki Sasaki Makes Decision About Joining MLB Sasaki’s choice to leave NPB now, at age 23, limits his earning potential to the major league minimum salary in 2024 plus whatever signing bonus he’s able to extract from teams’ limited amateur bonus pools.

If he signs on Jan. 15 or later, that effectively limits him to something in the $5.1 to $7.6 million range. If he signs earlier, it’s even less. Japanese players – notably Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani – have been able to recoup much of their income via endorsement earnings.

Ohtani’s $65 million in endorsement earnings dwarfs that of every other baseball player on the planet. Sasaki won’t earn that kind of endorsement money, at least not in his first year in MLB.

But playing for the Dodgers dramatically increased Ohtani’s endorsement profile after six years with the Los Angeles Angels.

Could moving to L.A. actually hinder Sasaki’s endorsement potential?

According to Jim Bowden, the former general manager of the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals, it’s possible.

Roki Sasaki’s Camp Telling Teams His Destination is ‘Not a Foregone Conclusion’: Report “In Los Angeles, he’d be in the shadow of both Ohtani and (Yoshinobu) Yamamoto, which would lessen his endorsement ceiling,” Bowden wrote Thursday, via The Athletic.

“Yamamoto has experienced this to a degree, as being on the same team as Ohtani has led to Kodai Senga of the New York Mets drawing more endorsement deals than Yamamoto, according to a league source. It only makes sense that Sasaki will consider this factor in making his decision.”

Bowden lists the San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Mets, and Atlanta Braves as more likely teams to sign Sasaki than the Dodgers.

So why are the Dodgers viewed as the betting favorites to sign Roki Sasaki? Jim Allen, who has covered Sasaki extensively in Japan, offered a concise explanation Thursday: “He might have made up his mind to play for the Dodgers, but if he has, I’m guessing it’s not because of the money, but because he believes they can help make him the best pitcher he possibly can be.”

Allen notes that Sasaki could have made more money by leaving at age 25, when he would not have been bound by international amateur spending limits.

He could have competed with MLB’s best domestic free-agent pitchers for top dollar. For that reason, Allen believes, money is unlikely to motivate Sasaki’s decision of where to sign.

If anything, giving all 30 teams to make their pitch on how they would let Sasaki develop allows him to choose more paths than he would by limiting his market to a small handful of well-heeled bidders. Between his age and relative affordability, Sasaki’s market will be robust.

At 20 years old, Sasaki threw a 19-strikeout perfect game for Lotte in 2022. In his next start, he threw eight more perfect innings. In the 2023 World Baseball Classic, his fastball sat 100 mph.

Sasaki went 10-5 with a 2.35 ERA in 18 starts for the Chiba Lotte Marines in 2024, with 129 strikeouts in 111 innings.