When the Red Sox made the surprising decision to issue the qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta last week, it was assumed by many that the right-hander was a strong candidate to accept it and return to Boston for 2025. A new report, however, suggests his market is strong enough for him to decline — and then sign a lucrative deal elsewhere.

According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, that’s what Pivetta intends to do ahead of Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline with the prospect of a three-year deal awaiting him.

“He almost certainly won’t accept the qualifying offer to return to Boston; at least a three-year deal awaits Pivetta in free agency,” Passan wrote Tuesday. “Teams believe his stuff plays like a frontline starter, and whether it’s the Cubs, Orioles, Braves or others, Pivetta is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter.”

A recent projection from Passan’s ESPN colleague Kiley McDaniel has Pivetta landing a three-year, $63 million deal, which would represent roughly the same average annual value as the qualifying offer, which is valued at $21.05 million over one season (2025). A bidding war between teams could increase the ceiling of Pivetta’s eventual deal; he earned just $7.5 million last year. As Passan noted, teams are banking on the upside of Pivetta — who owns a career 4.76 ERA in eight seasons and pitched to a 4.14 ERA in 145 ⅔ innings in 2024 — rather than rewarding him for stellar performance in the past. Houston and Tampa Bay have long been enamored with that upside and could be involved in the bidding, too.

With the qualifying offer attached, any team that signs Pivetta will have to forfeit a draft pick or two, increasing the already hefty price for a mid-rotation arm. The Red Sox would recoup a pick if he were to sign elsewhere and would likely be thrilled with that outcome as they pursue top-of-the-rotation arms on a market that includes free agents Roki Sasaki, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried and trade candidates like Chicago’s Garrett Crochet.