The Golden State Warriors may officially be headed for a Jonathan Kuminga nightmare scenario that rattles both their present and future.

To answer your question: No, this worst-case outcome is not letting him walk for nothing in restricted free agency. Make no mistake, that would not be ideal. But there is at least a finality to it. The Warriors could take their medicine, and attempt to move on.

The actual worst-case scenario for Golden State? That would be Kuminga signing his qualifying offer, and playing out next season on a one-year contract.

Current circumstances could convince Kuminga to sign a qualifying offer

Golden State will tender its 22-year-old a $7.9 million qualifying offer when the offseason officially begins. This is considered a formality for useful players entering restricted free agency. But Kuminga has the option of signing that qualifying offer, which would leave him to play out next season on a one-year deal, with a no-trade clause, before entering unrestricted free agency in 2026.

Players seldom go this route. Though the end result gives them more say in where they go, it’s a huge risk. Kuminga could suffer an injury, or continue to see his market value fluctuate inside the Warriors’ system.

And yet, this could be a path worth considering if he believes his value outstrips what Golden State is offering, and if no other teams have long-term deals of their own on the table.

As it turns out, this is the exact situation in which Kuminga finds himself. League sources told The Athletic’s Anthony Slater that the combo forward still fancies himself a future All-Star, suggesting he has the self-belief necessary to sign a qualifying offer. What’s more, the free-agency landscape isn’t conducive to another team giving a contract to Kuminga. The Brooklyn Nets are the only NBA team with more than the non-taxpayer mid-level to spend, and as Slater also notes, people around the league don’t believe they are interested in a Kuminga pursuit.

So unless the Warriors are prepared to pay the No. 7 overall pick from 2021 what he deserves, there’s a real chance he considers the most extreme option.

Kuminga signing his qualifying offer would trap the Warriors

Having Kuminga on his qualifying offer seems like it beats losing him for nothing. That’s to some extent true. When you really think about it, though, the end result is the same.

If Kuminga is on his qualifying offer next year, the Warriors cannot trade him without his approval. Beyond that, his Bird rights will not transfer to another team. This essentially means anyone acquiring him must have cap space in 2026. And if they need cap space to keep him, they aren’t going to give Golden State a ton for him in any midseason deal.

Figuring out sign-and-trade possibilities this summer is the obvious (and preferred) workaround. But the Base Year Compensation rule complicates those scenarios, particularly at a time when most teams don’t have a boatload of flexibility. (We break down more about the BYC issues here.)

Realistically, then, the Warriors can find themselves in a situation where Kuminga signs his qualifying offer, can’t be moved for any real value, and then leaves for nothing next summer.

That is more disastrous than losing him for nothing now, if only because it simply delays the inevitable, preventing them from moving on immediately. This says nothing of the distraction his one-year deal becomes, especially knowing he’ll be looking to maximize his market value next summer over fully integrating himself into the Dubs’ long-term programs.

Ideally, none of this will be an issue. The Warriors will either find the right sign-and-trade, or work out a contract with Kuminga that they deem fair, and that preserves him as a trade asset moving forward.

Still, if Kuminga truly believes in himself and can’t get the money he wants, he has the power to box Golden State into a corner—one that can delay, limit or even entirely eliminate their ability to capitalize on what may be an inevitable departure.