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For anyone worried that the Baltimore Orioles’ somewhat inexplicable series win over the New York Yankees would immediately give them the momentum they needed to get out of the AL East basemen .. ha, ha, no.
The Yanks dropped probably their most frustrating series of the year (lotta contenders, though!) last week in Baltimore, sandwiching a 15-3 victory between two one-run losses and a Heston Kjerstad kerfuffle that fired up all the dumbest people in the world.
The Orioles then took the lessons they’d learned from upsetting the Yankees on their home turf and channeled it directly into … dropping two of three to the Royals, then getting swept in Minnesota, which should not be possible. Their playoff odds have dropped to 7.5%, per FanGraphs, with just a 1.7% chance of winning the stunningly mediocre East. Now that Derek Shelton has been fired in Pittsburgh, Brandon Hyde is now probably the MLB manager who occupies the hottest seat.
In all likelihood, that will make Baltimore trade deadline sellers this summer, which seemed incomprehensible as recently as Opening Day — or, really, as recently as that very stupid Yankees series.
The Orioles have the 3rd-lowest chance of making the playoffs among all AL teams, per @fangraphs simulations.
The notion of Baltimore being a deadline seller is a realistic scenario, particularly given the difficultly of climbing up the competitive AL East. @MLBNetwork
Orioles playoff odds should make them trade deadline sellers. Could they match with Yankees?
Hmm. Cedric Mullins would probably make more sense elsewhere. Baltimore certainly couldn’t help in the rotation. Anything worthwhile still hanging out in that bullpen? Cionel Pérez was once nasty, but currently sports a 2.32 WHIP. Add in the in-division trade tax, and … yeah, the O’s should probably ply their wares elsewhere.
The only reason Yankee fans shouldn’t celebrate the Orioles’ stunningly quick apparent window closing is the fuel it’s given the Red Sox. It seemed just last year that Baltimore and the Yankees would always be standing in the way of Boston’s ascent. And, just like that, one of those two teams absolutely sucks. Now we have to count on the Yankees alone to give the Red Sox grief? Ooh, boy. That never goes well.
Perhaps what Baltimore’s built (or failed to build) will eventually become the cautionary tale Red Sox fans refer back to in moments of grief, as they follow along the same squandered path. We can only hope. Let this be a lesson to any mid-market team with ridiculous talent that tries to “get creative” and ignore the consensus: it’s not that easy to innovate. Sometimes you have to just pay stars, man.
