Reporters and fans were shocked when Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow on Nov. 4 extended a qualifying offer to impending free agent pitcher Nick Pivetta.

Tyler O’Neill was widely speculated to be the team’s most likely qualifying offer candidate. In theory, the Sox could’ve made the offer to both players, but if they both accepted, it’d quickly add $42.1 million to the team’s payroll.

The Red Sox organization has been vocal about its need to add quality starting pitching, and most fans expected the Sox to leave Pivetta’s rotation slot open so they could sign or trade for a top-of-the-rotation arm. But Breslow’s plan could work out in Boston’s favor.

“Nick Pivetta’s market, from what I’ve been told over the last couple of days, is, ‘surprisingly strong,’” Jon Morosi of MLB Network said on “Hot Stove” on Nov. 5.

Nick Pivetta’s ‘surprisingly strong’ market could work in Red Sox’s favor after qualifying offer

When will the first domino in this stacked class of free agent starting pitchers fall?@jonmorosi | #MLBNHotStove pic.twitter.com/vMoakLQ8DJ

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) November 5, 2024

Morosi listed Pivetta’s 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings as his most desirable quality to interested front offices. He’s been a homer magnet at Fenway Park, though, and it’s possible pitching in another ballpark could bring his ERA down.

Pivetta has never posted a sub-four ERA in his eight years of MLB service time, which is part of the reason why many Sox fans weren’t thrilled to see the qualifying offer extended to him. He’s a workhorse and has posted the most innings for the Red Sox of any pitcher since 2020, but he’s not the ace Boston desperately needs.

But many clubs need a workhorse and someone to eat innings in their rotation. Pivetta’s “surprisingly strong” market could mean he’ll reject the Sox’s qualifying offer to pitch elsewhere on a longer, more lucrative deal. If he does, the Red Sox will get a compensatory draft pick for losing him to free agency. This tactic has worked out well in the past — Boston’s compensatory pick for losing Xander Bogaerts before the 2022 season was a young stud named Kristian Campbell.

If Pivetta declines Breslow’s qualifying offer to pitch somewhere else, it’ll be a great start to the offseason for the Sox. If Pivetta accepts, he could pitch out of the rotation or bullpen in 2025. But for $21.05 million, his arm should be No. 1 or 2 starter-worthy.