After stretching free agency to the brink, Alex Bregman finally settled down in Boston on a three year, $120 million contract with opt-outs after each of the first two years. Initially, the plan was for Bregman to play at his traditional third base, moving Rafael Devers over to first where his defensive struggles would be less pronounced. However, despite rumors of the Red Sox swinging a trade to make that infield alignment a possibility and drama surrounding Devers’ future at third, it appears that the Sox hope to play Bregman at second instead.

Bleacher Report’s assessment of the Red Sox’ situation at second agrees with this outlook, projecting that Bregman will be the starting second baseman for the next three years – the length of his contract if he decides not to opt out. Starting in 2028, the article projects that Kristian Campbell, MLB’s 7th ranked prospect, will take over the job. That doesn’t mean Campbell won’t play until then, though, since his positional versatility gives him many different paths to big league playing time.

That might not seem like a bold prediction, and indeed, there’s a very good chance that it plays out exactly how Bleacher Report laid it out. That being said, it’s still assuming 1) that Bregman doesn’t opt out after this year or next year, 2) that the Sox don’t try and find a way to move him to third and 3) that he won’t sign an extension or longer free agency contract.

Because of the heavy preference for long-term deals, players who are given short contracts often opt out after their first year to retest the waters of free agency and look for a longer contract, even if it means sacrificing a lucrative payday. Exceptions are only made if players underperform expectations by a decent margin, like the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger last year, whose OPS dropped by 130 points from 2023 to 2024.

If Bregman has a big 2024, there’s a good chance he opts out in search of a long-term contract, even if he sacrifices $40 million for 2026. It doesn’t make any sense, but that’s how the market operates. So, whether Bleacher Report’s outlook is correct depends a lot on Bregman’s performance this season.