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Cody Bellinger made the expected bet on himself, walking away from a guaranteed $25 million for 2026 to test the market. After a true bounce-back year in New York—.272/.334/.480 with 29 homers, 98 RBIs and elite defensive flexibility—the former MVP set the stage for the payday he couldn’t quite land last winter. And this time, the stars line up for the New York Yankees to keep him.

The Market Says Seven Years—Here’s Why That Fits New York

The Athletic’s Tim Britton projects Bellinger to land a seven-year, $182 million contract, citing comps like Justin Upton and Brandon Nimmo and leaning on recent fWAR production rather than distant peaks. The number makes sense for both sides. Bellinger, still age-30 (turns 31 in mid-July 2026), brings a profile teams actually pay for: a left-handed middle-of-the-order bat who can play center field now and slide to a corner or first base later. That defensive runway protects the back end of the deal, and the Yankees can leverage it immediately.

The “Bronx vs. everywhere else” debate is real. Bellinger posted a .909 OPS at Yankee Stadium versus .715 on the road, and that split will give some bidders pause. But that’s also exactly why New York holds an edge. The short porch maximizes his left-handed power, the lineup protection around Aaron Judge keeps him in the zone, and the club can tailor matchups to sustain his gains against lefties rather than force a one-size-fits-all role. A rival front office has to convince ownership they’re paying top-of-market prices for production Bellinger hasn’t consistently replicated outside the Bronx; the Yankees can point to proof already in-house.

New York’s broader offseason picture pushes in the same direction. Eight Yankees—Paul Blackburn, Paul Goldschmidt, Trent Grisham, Amed Rosario, Austin Slater, Luke Weaver, Devin Williams and Ryan Yarbrough—are free agents. Some of that money comes off the books, and while bullpen repairs loom (especially if Williams bolts), the cleanest way to preserve a 2026 contender is to keep run production stable. Replacing Bellinger’s bat and glove would likely cost similar dollars across two players and two roster spots.

The Structure: Opt-Outs, Versatility and a No-Trade Sweetener

Prediction: Yankees re-sign Bellinger for seven years and $182 million with an opt-out after Year 3 (and a second after Year 4), plus a limited no-trade clause. The AAV lands in the mid-$20 millions, aligning with Britton’s model while giving Bellinger a chance to re-test the market if he outperforms the deal’s middle.

Role-wise, the Yankees keep him in center to start 2026, preserving roster optionality while a younger outfielder (or a midseason acquisition) eases the long-term transition to left field or first base. That pathway maximizes immediate value and protects late-year downside—a key front-office box to check on any seven- or eight-year commitment.

Could a stealth bidder crash the party? Sure. The Giants have money and a need for left-handed thump; the Mariners perennially seek offense; the Cubs have familiarity. But all face the same split question and will need to outbid both the number and the comfort level New York offers. If the contract tiers out around Britton’s projection—and this winter’s board suggests it will—the Yankees’ fit, park, lineup and timeline with Judge make them the logical winners.

Bottom line: Bellinger opted out to create leverage, and he got it. The Yankees, fresh off an ALDS letdown and staring at multiple holes, can’t afford to let a solved problem become two new ones. Expect them to pay for certainty—and keep Bellinger in pinstripes.

Alvin Garcia Born in Puerto Rico, Alvin Garcia is a sports writer for Heavy.com who focuses on MLB. His work has appeared on FanSided, LWOS, NewsBreak, Athlon Sports, and Yardbarker, covering mostly MLB. More about Alvin Garcia