The Houston Astros and New York Mets share a lot of similarities these days, but also a few key differences.
Houston was the last team eliminated from playoff contention in the American League, and New York was last in the National League. But while both teams feel bitter disappointment, the Astros have had a decade of postseason success, while the Mets are still trying to find their formula for consistency.
Both teams had their issues with starting pitching this season, but in different forms. Houston had an All-Star starter this year in Hunter Brown and a previous two-time All-Star in Framber Valdez, but a litany of injuries behind them. Meanwhile, the Mets went into the year trying to cobble together a staff of veterans with spotty track records, and the approach flopped when those arms either got injured or tired out in the second half.
Amid that backdrop, Valdez is getting set to hit free agency after a rough second half and a viral incident in which many speculated that he intentionally crossed up his catcher to drill him with a 93 mph fastball. He still has the most consistent track record of any starter on the market, but what team will take the risk of signing him?
On Tuesday, Matt Johnson of Sportsnaut predicted that the Mets would do just that, forecasting a five-year, $150 million contract for Valdez to head to Queens and shore up the New York rotation.
“In the final two months of the regular season, New York Mets starting pitchers had a 5.65 ERA,” wrote Johnson. “(Owner) Steve Cohen and (president of baseball operations) David Stearns will address that, just in different ways.
“For Cohen, it will be allowing (first baseman) Pete Alonso to depart in MLB free agency and then winning the bidding war for Framber Valdez. Coming off his age-31 season, the 5-foot-11 lefty has a 3.21 ERA over the last four seasons, averaging 191.8 innings pitched per year. It’s also worth noting that Stearns was the Houston Astros’ assistant general manager when they signed Valdez as an international free agent in 2015.”
At his peak, Valdez has been one of the premier ground ball specialists in the majors, and it doesn’t hurt to have a World Series ring either, considering that’s the goal the Mets have been trying (and failing) to achieve for decades. But he crossed the 1,000-inning mark this season, and he put up a 5.20 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break.
Still, it would make sense for the Mets to go after a far more decorated starter than anyone they signed last offseason. Will Johnson’s prediction come true?
