Once the offseason rolls around, the New York Yankees’ outfield situation will be the talk of the town. Right field will, of course, be locked down by Aaron Judge, who should be enjoying his second consecutive MVP (assuming the propaganda machine hasn’t convinced the voters to betray common sense).
Who fills out the other two spots on a nightly basis is the big question, with Cody Bellinger likely opting out of his contract and Trent Grisham hitting the open market.
Top prospect Spencer Jones will also enter the mix alongside 22-year-old Jasson Dominguez, who has shown flashes this season but hasn’t lived up to his extraterrestrial billing for the most part. It’s a foregone conclusion that Bellinger is going to get paid, whether by the Yankees or someone else. The potential market for Grisham? Nobody really knows, but if the Yankees want to go one specific route, they now have their answer.
MLB Qualifying Offer price revealed as Yankees know fate with Trent Grisham
The Yanks could slap Grisham with the qualified offer. According to the New York Post, the cost of the qualifying offer will be $22 million for one year, up from $21.05 million last offseason. if another team opts to sign Grisham after he’s presented with the qualifying offer, they will have to surrender draft pick compensation to New York.
Grisham has enjoyed a long-awaited breakout season, batting .240/.347/.473 while erupting for 33 dingers so far, finally fulfilling the promise that made him a first-round pick of the Milwaukee Brewers a decade ago.
With that said, the 28-year-old has been something of a one-year wonder, coming off a 2024 campaign that saw him hit just .190/.290/.385 and failing to supplant Alex Verdugo for everyday playing time. Last season’s poor performance led to speculation that he would be a prime non-tender candidate.
In addition to the questions about how sustainable his offensive breakout has been, the two-time Gold Glove winner’s defense has declined significantly in center field, with him registering -10 defensive runs saved and -1 outs above average on the year.
Still, the underlying metrics support Grisham’s breakout being for real. He ranks in the 99th percentile in chase rate, 94th percentile in walk rate, 90th percentile in barrel rate, and 75th percentile in average exit velocity. His .379 expected weighted on-base average is higher than his actual of .356, suggesting that the numbers Grisham is posting are no fluke thanks to his ability to lay off tough pitches, draw walks, and crush mistakes in the zone.
That said, betting big on him with a lucrative multi-year deal could end in disaster based on his pre-2025 track record, and if he were to hit free-agency unencumbered the Yankees could find themselves in the midst of a bidding war for his services. That is, of course, unless they go the QO route.
A one-year gamble might be the best for both sides. For the Yankees, it would give them the chance to see if Grisham’s breakout is real, while Grisham could hit the open market again after 2026 (heading into his age-30 campaign) potentially with two years of strong production driving his price tag up further.
Tagging Grisham with the qualifying offer would likely hurt his chances at a long-term deal elsewhere. Other teams having the same concerns as the Yankees would likely have even greater pause if signing Grisham meant surrendering draft assets, meaning Grisham would likely accept the offer in order to re-enter free agency next offseason, free of any strings attached.
One year at $22 million seems like a fair price for both sides, given the circumstances. Now, it’s just up to the Yankees to decide whether or not they truly want Grisham back in 2026.
