{"id":64761,"date":"2025-05-28T02:26:20","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T02:26:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=64761"},"modified":"2025-05-28T02:26:28","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T02:26:28","slug":"update-predicting-overs-and-unders-for-the-2025-chiefs-defense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=64761","title":{"rendered":"UPDATE: Predicting overs and unders for the 2025 Chiefs\u2019 defense"},"content":{"rendered":"
Let\u2019s try to predict how Kansas City\u2019s defense will fare in 2025.<\/p>\n
Last week, we crunched the numbers and tried to predict\u00a0overs and unders for the Kansas City Chiefs offense.\u00a0For the most part, we took a pretty positive outlook on this Chiefs team offensively. But if Kansas City hopes to push for a fourth consecutive\u00a0Super Bowl\u00a0appearance, it must remain one of the league\u2019s top defensive units.<\/p>\n
That said, there are definitely areas where the team can outperform last season \u2014 most notably in the pass rush, where they tied the\u00a0Buffalo Bills\u00a0and\u00a0New Orleans Saints\u00a0with\u00a0just 41 total sacks. That\u2019s a steep drop from their 57 sacks in 2023, and if the Chiefs want to dominate in 2025, getting back to that level of pressure will be critical.<\/p>\n
Just like we did with the offense, we\u2019ll examine five key statistical categories and assign an over-under number for each. Then we\u2019ll predict whether the Chiefs will likely hit or miss it.<\/p>\n
Note:<\/strong><\/em> While we heavily considered past statistics, this project is, by definition, rooted in projections and educated guesses.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Cooper Neill\/Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n
Sacks<\/strong><\/h2>\n
There\u2019s no sugarcoating it: the Chiefs\u2019 defense took a step back in this category. After registering 57 sacks in 2023, they managed just 41 in 2024, a noticeable drop-off in production when it came to getting after opposing quarterbacks\u00a039 times in 2024. It was the team’s lowest sack total since 2021, when they only registered 31 sacks.<\/p>\n
There were a lot of factors that contributed to the Chiefs\u2019 sack total last season. One major issue was the injury to Charles Omenihu, which kept him out for most of the year. Another was the lack of an interior pass rusher to line up next to Chris Jones, allowing teams to double-team him with minimal consequence.<\/p>\n
The team addressed this issue in the draft, selecting both Omarr Norman-Lott and Ashton Gillotte.<\/p>\n
In this model, I\u2019m adding\u00a0+15 sacks<\/strong>\u00a0to account for the addition of the rookies and Omenihu\u2019s return to health. However, I\u2019m also subtracting\u00a0-6 sacks<\/strong>\u00a0due to the loss of Turk Wharton.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m also factoring in that George Karlaftis and Mike Danna are both entering contract years, which adds motivation to produce.<\/p>\n
Projected sacks: 49<\/strong><\/p>\n
My take: Over<\/strong><\/p>\n
The Chiefs topped 50 sacks in both 2022 and 2023. With this infusion of young talent and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo\u2019s love of creative blitzes, I see Kansas City returning to the half-century mark again.<\/p>\n
Interceptions<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Jason Hanna\/Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n
If we look at recent Chiefs history, we\u2019ll see that they usually average somewhere between 12 and 13 interceptions per season.<\/p>\n
Based on the quarterbacks they\u2019re facing \u2014 and where and when those games happen \u2014you\u2019ll land on a similar number if you start crunching the digits. The improvements at cornerback are offset by the loss of Justin Reid and the lingering questions at safety.<\/p>\n
So, all things considered, I think we\u2019re in for a year that mirrors what the Chiefs did in 2024.<\/p>\n
Projected interceptions: 13<\/strong><\/p>\n
My take: Push<\/strong><\/p>\n
The Chiefs\u2019 secondary could very well improve without necessarily generating more turnovers. More interceptions would be nice, but that\u2019ll largely depend on whether the safeties are in over their heads next year.<\/p>\n
Forced fumbles<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Kevork Djansezian\/Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n
Fumbles are funny because they\u2019re 100% preventable, and yet the best players in the game always seem to feast when the opportunity presents itself.<\/p>\n
The Chiefs usually record 12 forced fumbles or fewer, and it\u2019s hard to see them exceeding that number this season. An optimistic take might project one or two more, especially with an improved pass rush, but I\u2019m not entirely sold on that idea.<\/p>\n
Fumbles are just too unpredictable. 12 could be the high-water mark, or they could stumble into a few more. That\u2019s the nature of the game.<\/p>\n
Defensive touchdowns<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Nick Tre. Smith\/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n
This one is even harder to predict. You\u2019re essentially looking at the roster and the schedule and trying to guess how many of the 25 combined fumbles and interceptions will turn into touchdowns.<\/p>\n
Historical data suggests it happens a couple of times per season; however, last year it only occurred once.<\/p>\n
Then again, you never know how the ball is going to bounce.<\/p>\n
You never know when it\u2019s going to happen, but that unpredictability is exactly what makes it so rare and fun to watch.<\/p>\n
Points allowed per game<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Nick Cammett\/Diamond Images via Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n
The 2024 Chiefs allowed the fourth-fewest points per game, giving up just 19.2 on average. But in 2025, they\u2019re facing a much tougher schedule, including matchups against the\u00a0Philadelphia Eagles,\u00a0Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills, to name a few.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not to say the Chiefs can\u2019t outperform last season, but it\u2019s clear the defense has its work cut out in 2025.<\/p>\n
Projected points allowed per game: 20<\/strong><\/p>\n
My take: Over<\/strong><\/p>\n
The Chiefs\u2019 defense overperformed for large stretches last season. It will be tough to replicate that level of execution again this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Let\u2019s try to predict how Kansas City\u2019s defense will fare in 2025. Last week, we crunched the numbers and tried to predict\u00a0overs and unders for the Kansas… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":64764,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl"],"yoast_head":"\n
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![\"Las](\"https:\/\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/thumbor\/tp8FisI8YOWylhNaDFGFpga9SOs=\/0x0:6855x4570\/320x0\/filters:focal(0x0:6855x4570):format(webp):no_upscale()\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/uploads\/chorus_asset\/file\/26006461\/2187917544.jpg)
<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Cooper Neill\/Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n![\"Houston](\"https:\/\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/thumbor\/NaTxCNxORCxKgiJZEZsRR7cX5TQ=\/0x0:2590x1727\/1200x0\/filters:focal(0x0:2590x1727):no_upscale()\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/uploads\/chorus_asset\/file\/26006466\/2190977609.jpg\")
<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Jason Hanna\/Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n![\"Kansas](\"https:\/\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/thumbor\/JI62GFvY_sNtN0berpxLtu66gVs=\/0x0:2084x1390\/1200x0\/filters:focal(0x0:2084x1390):no_upscale()\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/uploads\/chorus_asset\/file\/26006472\/1915567308.jpg\")
<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Kevork Djansezian\/Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n![\"NFL:](\"https:\/\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/thumbor\/rEIDyya7aLyum1AK5nHSWSLrA-Y=\/0x0:5288x3621\/1200x0\/filters:focal(0x0:5288x3621):no_upscale()\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/uploads\/chorus_asset\/file\/26006481\/1247208601.jpg\")
<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Nick Tre. Smith\/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n![\"Kansas](\"https:\/\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/thumbor\/n65oZxaTVts1m9Bt1AyPS1lEP1U=\/0x0:6739x4493\/1200x0\/filters:focal(0x0:6739x4493):no_upscale()\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/uploads\/chorus_asset\/file\/26006485\/2192410143.jpg\")
<\/picture><\/span><\/span>![\"Houston](\"https:\/\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/thumbor\/68gZQZEAwQxPCsp5dfcntyZ7mfo=\/0x0:2590x1727\/320x0\/filters:focal(0x0:2590x1727):format(webp):no_upscale()\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/uploads\/chorus_asset\/file\/26006466\/2190977609.jpg)
<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Jason Hanna\/Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n![\"Kansas](\"https:\/\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/thumbor\/vlO-_omhQBK4XYNzN8q3woUXvug=\/0x0:2084x1390\/320x0\/filters:focal(0x0:2084x1390):format(webp):no_upscale()\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/uploads\/chorus_asset\/file\/26006472\/1915567308.jpg)
<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Kevork Djansezian\/Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n![\"NFL:](\"https:\/\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/thumbor\/eOjt8soNN3LYuEXQsG4mZAWRfhg=\/0x0:5288x3621\/320x0\/filters:focal(0x0:5288x3621):format(webp):no_upscale()\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/uploads\/chorus_asset\/file\/26006481\/1247208601.jpg)
<\/picture><\/span><\/span>Photo by Nick Tre. Smith\/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images<\/cite><\/span><\/figure>\n![\"Kansas](\"https:\/\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/thumbor\/33_jjwM8XiRKiTY_135-rC6dbk4=\/0x0:6739x4493\/320x0\/filters:focal(0x0:6739x4493):format(webp):no_upscale()\/cdn.vox-cdn.com\/uploads\/chorus_asset\/file\/26006485\/2192410143.jpg)
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