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The Miami Heat are in a tailspin. After dropping their eighth straight game in a blowout loss to the New York Knicks, the Heat have plummeted to the ninth-worst record in the league. This isn’t just a rough patch — it’s a full-blown collapse.<\/p>\n
This isn\u2019t turning around in any meaningful way. They’re getting blown out by 30 on the regular. The third quarter against New York was an absolute disaster, with the Knicks outscoring Miami 41-15. It’s gotten so bad that even Tracy Morgan couldn’t stomach watching courtside, literally puking on the floor. When celebrities are vomiting at the sight of your team, you know things aren\u2019t awesome.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re going through the dark days right now,\u201d Jaime Jaquez Jr. said.<\/p>\n
After Miami\u2019s loss and the Chicago Bulls\u2019 win over the Utah Jazz on Monday night, the Heat have dropped to 10th place in the East and are 10 games under .500 for the first time since the 2016-17 season. If the standings were frozen today, the Heat would have the ninth-best odds in the NBA Draft lottery.<\/p>\n
Despite the skid, Miami is still a near-lock to make the play-in tournament. But a play-in elimination would result in maintaining their place in the lottery. Make the playoffs, and the Heat would jump to the middle of the first round.<\/p>\n
Is it time to embrace the tank?<\/p>\n
There are reasons why the Heat shouldn\u2019t. They owe the Oklahoma City Thunder a top-14 protected pick this year or an unprotected pick next year. While Miami would keep its pick by missing the playoffs this year, that would result in next year\u2019s pick being completely unprotected. It would also kick a top-14 protected pick owed to the Charlotte Hornets in 2027 to unprotected in 2028. That scenario opens the Heat up to risk of losing a top pick those summers. The indication is that the Heat would prefer to make the playoffs this season and keep the protections on those picks.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s the thing: the Heat may not have to \u201cembrace\u201d it, per se, the way teams like the Jazz and Raptors have. The Jazz were recently fined for resting players, while the Raptors are routinely benching their starters in the fourth quarter of close games.<\/p>\n
Instead, the Heat have just been traditionally bad. Including Monday\u2019s loss, they have blown double-digit leads in 18 losses this season. That ties the Jazz for the most such collapses this season.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have not come up with solutions and we\u2019ve pretty much tried everything,\u201d coach Erik Spoelstra said. \u201cThis has been one of the biggest challenges of a regular season that I\u2019ve been a part of.\u201d<\/p>\n
Since Jan. 1, the Heat have dropped from fifth in the East to 10th. In that time, they rank 26th in offensive rating, 15th in defensive rating and are being outscored by 4.9 points every 100 possessions (the 22nd-worst mark in the league).<\/p>\n
The Heat (29-39) are one of four teams within a game of each other in the standings, along with the Spurs (28-39), Bulls (29-39) and Trail Blazers (30-39).<\/p>\n
Dropping lower than eighth, at this stage, seems improbable since the seventh-worst Raptors are 5.5 losses behind of the Heat.<\/p>\n
The Suns, Mavericks and Kings are 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 wins ahead of the Heat to round out the lottery.<\/p>\n The Heat can probably get as low as eight.<\/p>\n Would come with a 26.3% chance of landing a top-four pick (up from 14.7%). pic.twitter.com\/4RW4rY2hde<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/figure>\n The Heat can probably get as low as eight. <\/p>\n Would come with a 26.3% chance of landing a top-four pick (up from 14.7%). pic.twitter.com\/4RW4rY2hde<\/a><\/p>\n — Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg) March 18, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
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