{"id":4250,"date":"2024-11-05T18:52:42","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T18:52:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=4250"},"modified":"2024-11-05T18:52:42","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T18:52:42","slug":"urgent-update-what-the-data-shows-on-heats-third-quarter-collapses-and-where-this-might-be-heading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=4250","title":{"rendered":"URGENT UPDATE: What the data shows on Heat\u2019s third-quarter collapses and where this might be heading"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s the problem that everyone can identify and yet no one can solve: grotesque third-quarter performances that keep leaving Miami at a loss. The Heat has played four home games this season and has been outscored 137-71 in the third quarter of those games, a big reason why Miami is just 3-3 entering a six-game road trip that begins on Wednesday night in Phoenix (9 p.m., FanDuel Sports Network Sun).<\/p>\n<p>Those momentum-swinging quarters contributed heavily to losses to Orlando and New York and were a factor in Monday\u2019s loss to Sacramento. Miami surged ahead by 13 early in the third, fell behind by nine late in the third, then rallied to lead by five with 1:14 left before losing 111-110 on a Domantas Sabonis rebound and nine-foot floater at the buzzer. \u201cWe\u2019ve looked at everything,\u201d coach Erik Spoelstra said of the third-quarter collapses. \u201cAt some point, you have to take a stand and say enough is enough with these third quarters. We are going to have to figure it out.. Three straight games where I had to call a first timeout. It takes a little wind out of your sails.\u201d What\u2019s confounding is the Heat has been an above-average team in every other quarter. Miami has outscored opponents by 17 points in the first quarter, 25 points in the second quarter and 17 in the fourth. But Miami has been outscored by 52 in the third. Miami is the NBA\u2019s lowest scoring team in the third quarter.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s like we like to let our foot off the gas and let teams back into it to try to make it interesting,\u201d Bam Adebayo said. \u201cWe\u2019ve got to figure out the third quarter. It\u2019s been a deciding factor in a lot of our games.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Jimmy Butler has a theory for what\u2019s happening: \u201cWhen we aren\u2019t making shots, that\u2019s normally when teams start to go on runs. We don\u2019t get back, we don\u2019t defensive rebound. It\u2019s a defensive thing, but for us, it\u2019s more offense. When we don\u2019t see that ball going through that basket, mentally we have to be tougher and stronger to still get stops. That\u2019s the main problem; that\u2019s what you\u2019re seeing in the third quarter.\u201d On Monday, the Kings unleashed their third-quarter run while Miami was shooting 6 for 20 and 1 of 8 on threes in the third. The Heat also shot poorly in third quarter meltdowns against Orlando (which outscored Miami 39-18 in the third on opening night), Detroit (26-14) and the Knicks (35-22). Of those four games, Miami won only the Pistons game. The Heat is shooting 38.2 percent overall on three-pointers, which is fifth best in the league, but just 29.5 percent on third-quarter threes. \u201cWe need to come out of the half stronger,\u201d Tyler Herro said. \u201cObviously, it\u2019s been a trend. [We need to] just find a way to be motivated to come out in the second half. Every quarter we won [Monday] except the third.\u201d Is the problem mental at this point? \u201cNo,\u201d Adebayo said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen we get in that moment, we always have that conversation of, \u2018we can\u2019t keep letting this happen.\u2019 For three quarters, we play hard as [expletive] on defense. [But in the] third quarter, we\u2019ve got to figure it out.\u201d All of this could be headed toward a change in the starting lineup; replacing Nikola Jovic with Jaime Jaquez Jr. or Haywood Highsmith would be the simplest move. Shifting Jaquez to the starting group would be easier to accommodate amid the rapid development of second-round pick Pelle Larsson, who essentially took Jaquez\u2019s place and played the final 6:58 against Sacramento.<\/p>\n<p>Jaquez missed the Kings game with a stomach illness. But he\u2019s the oddity about the Heat\u2019s starting lineup, albeit in a small six-game sample size: The lineup is above average when it plays together in the first half but awful when it plays together in the second half. In the third quarter, the Butler, Adebayo, Herro, Terry Rozier, Jovic starting group has been outscored by 28 points in 30 minutes, the worst plus\/minus of any of the 722 five-man lineups that have been used by teams in the third quarter of games this season. The Heat\u2019s starting five has been outscored 85-57 in their 30 third quarter minutes as a group. When those five have been on the floor together in the second half overall, they have shot 32.8 percent from the field (21 for 64) and 31.4 percent (11 for 35) on threes. The Heat has played 38 different lineups in the second half of games, and none have been nearly as bad as the starting group.<\/p>\n<p>(The next worst lineup has been outscored by 11 in the second half.) In the first half, the Adebayo\/Butler\/Herro\/Rozier\/Jovic quintet has been better than average. The starting group has outscored teams 90-84 in 35 first half minutes. They\u2019ve shot much better on threes (10 for 21, 47.6 percent) when they\u2019re on the court together in the first half than the second half. If the Heat moves toward starting Jaquez or Highsmith in place of Jovic, keep in mind that neither of those lineups has been great, though it\u2019s impossible to make any grand conclusions because of the small sample size.<\/p>\n<p>Since Jaquez entered the league last season, a lineup of Jaquez, Butler, Adebayo, Herro and Rozier has been outscored by nine points in 15 minutes. Including 59 minutes last season and five this season, a lineup of Highsmith, Butler, Adebayo, Herro and Rozier has been outscored by 11 points in 64 minutes. Whatever the solution, Herro said: \u201cThere\u2019s not much to talk about at this point except the third quarters. We\u2019ve got to figure it out.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s the problem that everyone can identify and yet no one can solve: grotesque third-quarter performances that keep leaving Miami at a loss. The Heat has played&#8230; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4251,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nba"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>URGENT UPDATE: What the data shows on Heat\u2019s third-quarter collapses and where this might be heading - News 365<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=4250\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"URGENT UPDATE: What the data shows on Heat\u2019s third-quarter collapses and where this might be heading - News 365\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s the problem that everyone can identify and yet no one can solve: grotesque third-quarter performances that keep leaving Miami at a loss. 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