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Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra often emphasizes the importance of the team\u2019s key performance indicators.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s about learning how to win and learning how to do it consistently,\u201d Spoelstra said recently. \u201cPart of that process is understanding what are the key indicators that lead to winning.\u201d<\/p>\n
Many of the Heat\u2019s KPIs usually come on the defensive end. After all, the Heat enters Sunday night\u2019s matchup against the New York Knicks at Kaseya Center with a 20-7 record this season when allowing 110 or fewer points and an 8-23 record this season when allowing more than 110 points.<\/p>\n
But there\u2019s at least one KPI that\u2019s connected to the Heat\u2019s offense and it\u2019s simple: Did three-point shooting forward Duncan Robinson score at at least 20 points?<\/p>\n
Over the 67 games (including the postseason) that Robinson has scored at least 20 points in during his seven-year NBA career ahead of Sunday\u2019s matchup against the Knicks, the Heat holds an impressive 52-15 record.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen Duncan is aggressive and being himself, I feel like our offense goes to another level,\u201d Heat guard Tyler Herro said.<\/p>\n
Between Robinson\u2019s two-man game with starting center Bam Adebayo and Robinson serving as a three-point threat who opponents have to game plan for, there\u2019s more space for the Heat\u2019s offense to operate when Robinson is on the court and especially when Robinson is making a bunch of threes.<\/p>\n
\u201cI know there\u2019s analytics to it now. But there are players where you just know they tilt the defense differently,\u201d Spoelstra said. \u201cShooters, the catch-and-shoot guys, guys that come off screens. Duncan is one of those guys. He just is. That\u2019s the reality. You can run those actions for other players and it\u2019s not going to create quite the same reactions. And that\u2019s from years of reputation of being deadly coming off screens.\u201d<\/p>\n
Herro added: \u201cHe\u2019s really the guy who can create overreactions for the defense.\u201d<\/p>\n
Robinson, 30, has noticed those overreactions from opposing defenses become even more common over the years.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen shots go in and sometimes even when they don\u2019t just because of the scouting report and reputation, I can create some overreactions and hopefully help get guys some easy ones,\u201d said Robinson, who entered Sunday with 30 starts in 55 appearances this season. \u201cThat\u2019s generating offense, too. It\u2019s not always just if the ball is going in or not. But sometimes I feel like I can help just us function on that end in other ways, too. So trying to be a complete player, more of a complete player and more of a threat than just shooting from three.\u201d<\/p>\n
Robinson\u2019s improved passing has allowed him to better take advantage of those overreactions, as he averaged a career-high 2.8 assists per game last season and entered Sunday near that mark again this season with 2.7 assists per game.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s really improved in all aspects,\u201d Spoelstra said of Robinson, who is the franchise leader for the most career three-point makes by a Heat player. \u201cHe had two really big drives the other night. But that\u2019s probably been going on for two years now, also the playmaking. He\u2019s added a lot of passing. … But he\u2019s been doing that now for a year and a half. So these things are not overnight things. It\u2019s been steady improvement.\u201d<\/p>\n
The passing and playmaking is helpful, but the Heat is at its best when Robinson is making baskets. Just look at the Heat\u2019s record when Robinson finishes a game with at least 20 points.<\/p>\n
It remains to be seen if the Robinson effect will continue past this season, though.<\/p>\n
Robinson can become a free agent this upcoming summer, as he has the right to terminate next season\u2019s $19.9 million salary by June 29 and enter free agency. But the Heat also can make Robinson a free agent, as the team can waive him by July 8 to owe only $9.9 million of his $19.9 million salary for next season ($10 million in savings against the salary cap, luxury tax and aprons).<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s another guy who creates advantages, overreactions. That\u2019s what Duncan brings,\u201d Herro said. \u201cObviously, his shooting, the way he moves off the ball, he just makes everything so easy on everyone else. He really opens the floor for everyone.\u201d<\/p>\n
Strong first impression
\nGuard Davion Mitchell has been with the Heat for less than a month in the wake of the Jimmy Butler trade, but he has already made a strong impression on his new coaches and teammates.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s one of the hardest workers that I\u2019ve played with,\u201d Herro said Friday of Mitchell. \u201cJust seeing since he\u2019s been here, how much time he puts into his craft every single day. He\u2019s going to be right back at it again tomorrow morning. When you see guys like that, you trust it and good things tend to happen. He puts the work in and I\u2019m going to ride with him.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mitchell entered Sunday averaging 10 points, 1.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 53.6 percent from the field and 14 of 28 (50 percent) from three-point range in eight appearances (all starts) since he was traded to Miami.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe want to encourage him to continue to be more aggressive,\u201d Spoelstra said of Mitchell. \u201cI think he still can be a guy who can generate some easy opportunities when he touches the paint. He\u2019s a very willing passer, he wants to get guys involved, he wants to get our main guys the ball almost to a fault. We\u2019ll clean that all up. But I like his game when he\u2019s assertive because he has the right intentions to move the ball.\u201d<\/p>\n
Injury report
\nThe Heat listed Jaime Jaquez Jr. (sprained right ankle) and Andrew Wiggins (sprained right ankle) as doubtful for Sunday\u2019s game against the Knicks.<\/p>\n
The Heat has already ruled out Josh Christopher (G League), Keshad Johnson (G League), Nikola Jovic (broken right hand), Dru Smith (Achilles surgery) and Isaiah Stevens (G League) for the contest.<\/p>\n
The Knicks listed Josh Hart (right knee effusion) and Mitchell Robinson (left ankle surgery) as probable for Sunday\u2019s game in Miami.<\/p>\n
The Knicks will be without Ariel Hukporti (left knee surgery), Kevin McCullarJr. (G League) and Jacob Toppin (G League) against the Heat.<\/p>\n
The Heat closes its four-game homestand Monday against the Washington Wizards (7:30 p.m., FanDuel Sports Network Sun) on the second night of a back-to-back set after taking on the Knicks on Sunday night.<\/p>\n
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