{"id":117029,"date":"2025-11-05T03:25:31","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T03:25:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=117029"},"modified":"2025-11-05T03:25:31","modified_gmt":"2025-11-05T03:25:31","slug":"%f0%9f%9a%a8%f0%9f%8f%88-nfl-shockwave-super-bowl-favorites-fall-apart-in-week-9-chiefs-colts-packers-and-lions-all-go-down-fans-say-this-week-changed-everything","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=117029","title":{"rendered":"\ud83d\udea8\ud83c\udfc8 NFL SHOCKWAVE: Super Bowl favorites fall apart in Week 9! Chiefs, Colts, Packers, and Lions all go down \u2014 fans say this week changed everything!"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"iframe-video article-figure video\" data-video=\"watch,640,360,46824547\" data-cerebro-id=\"6907f979a421b770c0834a8b\" data-title=\"Bills swat away Mahomes' Hail Mary attempt to seal win\" data-source=\"espn\" data-contributing-partner=\"wsc\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"article-body\">\n<div class=\"content-reactions reactions-allowed reactions-ready\" data-behavior=\"content_reactions\" data-contentid=\"46819448\" data-nowid=\"1-46819448\" data-contenttitle=\"Super Bowl picks lose in Week 9: Chiefs, Colts, Packers, Lions\">\n<div class=\"content-reactions_count-wrapper\">\n<p><strong>Just when we were beginning to confidently pick the real Super Bowl\u00a0contenders,\u00a0Week 9\u00a0shuffled the top of the NFL&#8217;s deck.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Four of the five favorites to win this season&#8217;s title by ESPN&#8217;s\u00a0Football Power Index\u00a0(FPI) lost on Sunday. The only team in the top five to make it through the weekend unscathed was the Eagles &#8212; who were on bye. And after Sunday&#8217;s series of upsets, each team has at least two losses on its record by Week 9. That has happened only one other time in the past 35 years, a 2010 season where the eventual Super Bowl champion Packers finished the regular season as the sixth seed in the NFC.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>I&#8217;m going to break down those four Super Bowl contenders &#8212; the Chiefs, Colts, Packers and Lions &#8212; who lost in Week 9, including what happened and whether it&#8217;s something to be concerned about moving forward. Were these momentary missteps? Or is the race to the Lombardi Trophy as wide open as records around the league indicate?<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s start with the latest matchup between the class of the AFC, where the Bills held serve on the Chiefs in the regular season for another year. (I included FPI chances to win the Super Bowl for each team both before and after their Week 9 losses.)<\/p>\n<p><strong><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"imageLoaded\" src=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/i\/infographics\/20170710_nfl_fpr\/charts\/_end_rule.png\" width=\"100%\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"floatleft imageLoaded\" src=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=\/i\/teamlogos\/nfl\/500\/kc.png&amp;h=110&amp;w=110\" alt=\"\" width=\"31\" \/> KANSAS CITY CHIEFS<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"article-body\">Week 9 result:\u00a0Lost 28-21\u00a0to the\u00a0Buffalo Bills<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-body\">Chances to win the Super Bowl before Week 9:\u00a015.2%<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-body\">Chances to win the Super Bowl after Week 9: 11.1%It&#8217;s become a running gag. After earning the best one-score game record we&#8217;ve seen in a single season in 2024, the Chiefs have now lost all four of their games decided by seven or fewer points this season.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-body\">Sunday&#8217;s 28-21 loss to the Bills wasn&#8217;t as close as the final score indicated, but after Buffalo&#8217;s Matt Prater booted a 52-yard field goal attempt off the uprights to keep the game alive, you could sense the panic and fatalism of what was surely going to happen next permeate through the television.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article-body\">Twenty-two seconds and no timeouts? For Patrick Mahomes? Might as well start preparing for overtime now.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, the Bills quickly closed out their fifth regular-season win over Mahomes and the Chiefs in six tries, knocking him down twice on the final three pass attempts of the game.<\/p>\n<p>The story was pressure and what it did to Mahomes, who had a sub-50% completion percentage in a game for the first time as a pro quarterback, going just 15-of-34 for 250 yards with no passing touchdowns and one interception. After years of averaging the shortest pass distance or something close to it, Mahomes&#8217; average throw traveled more than 14 yards in the air on Sunday, the deepest average throw distance of his career.<\/p>\n<p>The Bills pressured Mahomes on more than 52% of his dropbacks per NFL Next Gen Stats, the fifth-highest pressure rate Mahomes has faced in his illustrious career.<\/p>\n<p>He went 3-of-16 for 61 yards and an interception under duress Sunday, throwing all three of those completions to\u00a0Travis Kelce, still the pass catcher Mahomes trusts most when he&#8217;s in trouble. Sean McDermott and the Bills created all that pressure despite blitzing Mahomes just three times all day.<\/p>\n<p>This was the Brandon Beane game, though. The Bills&#8217; general manager was\u00a0excoriated by local fans\u00a0this offseason and even as recently as October for failing to add playmakers for\u00a0Josh Allen\u00a0this spring and summer, as Buffalo&#8217;s only notable signing at running back or receiver was\u00a0Joshua Palmer, who was\u00a0injured\u00a0and missed the victory.<\/p>\n<p>I ranked the Bills\u00a028th in my playmaker rankings\u00a0this year, concerned that Buffalo didn&#8217;t have a WR who could separate against man coverage or in situations where the Bills needed a big play. That&#8217;s essentially code for &#8220;against the Chiefs.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Beane instead loaded most of the money he had into fixing the team&#8217;s pass rush, trusting that it would be the way to compete with the Chiefs and slow down Mahomes.<\/p>\n<p>In addition to extending\u00a0Greg Rousseau, the Bills\u00a0signed\u00a0Joey Bosa\u00a0to replace\u00a0Von Miller\u00a0and added\u00a0Michael Hoecht\u00a0and\u00a0Larry Ogunjobi\u00a0(though both players were\u00a0suspended\u00a0for the first six weeks of the regular season after violating the league&#8217;s PED policy).<\/p>\n<p>The schedule wasn&#8217;t yet made, but Beane&#8217;s plan wasn&#8217;t exactly difficult to understand: Win up front, and they have a shot at beating Mahomes when it matters most.<\/p>\n<p>That line delivered, even\u00a0without\u00a0DaQuan Jones\u00a0and\u00a0Ed Oliver\u00a0in the lineup at defensive tackle. The Bills have looked notably better on defense over the past two weeks with Hoecht and Ogunjobi active, though the Bills revealed after the game that Hoecht\u00a0tore an Achilles\u00a0in the second half, an injury that will end his season.<\/p>\n<p>To be fair, this wasn&#8217;t as dominant as the Eagles were against the Chiefs\u00a0in the Super Bowl, where Philadelphia&#8217;s star linemen kept winning over and over again at the snap and left Mahomes with no hope.<\/p>\n<p>The Bills won the occasional one-on-one immediately for a quick pressure, but most of their pressures were after 2.5 seconds.<\/p>\n<p>In the past, that might have been enough time for Mahomes to find a receiver for a short completion and stay on schedule.<\/p>\n<p>But with the Chiefs big-play hunting, the extra time needed for those routes to develop gave the Bills a little bit of extra time to get home.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"inline float-r inline-track\">\n<h2 class=\"img-title\">Catch up on NFL Week 9<\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"round imageLoaded lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/photo\/2025\/0718\/ranking_32_nfl_teams_1296x518.png\" data-lazyload=\"true\" data-src=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/photo\/2025\/0718\/ranking_32_nfl_teams_1296x518.png\" \/><\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>McDermott&#8217;s game plan required a little more creativity.<\/p>\n<p>The Bills created a handful of pressures with three-man rushes while playing zone coverage behind, a tactic Lou Anarumo and the Bengals used to come back against the Chiefs in the\u00a0AFC Championship Game\u00a0in the 2021 season, but the Bills were artful about those looks. They used picks and twists to create opportunities for Bosa to get after the quarterback.<\/p>\n<p>They spied Mahomes on many of those snaps, too &#8212; but instead of simply electing a spy and putting him in an obvious spot directly over the center, McDermott found ways to mask the spy&#8217;s identity.<\/p>\n<p>There were snaps where he would have the spy line up on the line, initially rush and then drop off, while a linebacker from the second level would take his place in the pass rush.<\/p>\n<p>And when Mahomes did get on the move, the Bills did a great job of closing him down and either forcing an incompletion or hitting him; the MVP candidate finished with just one carry for 5 yards, a far cry from the numbers he was posting as a scrambler earlier this season.<\/p>\n<p>To pull that off, Buffalo had to hold up in coverage while the pass rush took its time to get home. Facing a Chiefs team that had looked extremely dynamic with\u00a0Rashee Rice\u00a0and\u00a0Xavier Worthy\u00a0in the lineup, the Bills held their own in the back end. Two players were essential for McDermott.<\/p>\n<p>One, shockingly, was struggling safety\u00a0Cole Bishop, who comfortably had his best game as a pro. Bishop closed down receivers on scramble drills, broke up a team-high four passes and came up with a tackle for loss on a throw to Worthy. He also helped break up one of the two Hail Mary attempts that ended the game.<\/p>\n<p>The other player was rookie cornerback\u00a0Maxwell Hairston, who missed the first six games of the season with a\u00a0knee injury\u00a0before returning to the lineup last week\u00a0against the Panthers.<\/p>\n<p>Splitting time in a near 50-50 rotation with veteran\u00a0Tre&#8217;Davious White, the Bills got a shot in the arm from Hairston&#8217;s ability to run with Rice and especially Worthy in coverage.<\/p>\n<p>The first-rounder picked off a Mahomes deep ball and allowed one catch on three targets for 18 yards across 16 coverage snaps as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats.<\/p>\n<p>For the Chiefs, the pressures will raise fears about the offensive line, which has been the weak link in their Super Bowl losses to the\u00a0Buccaneers\u00a0and\u00a0Eagles.<\/p>\n<p>This was a problem that was supposed to be fixed after GM Brett Veach invested heavily in the line this offseason, making\u00a0Jaylon Moore\u00a0the most\u00a0expensive\u00a0swing tackle in league history,\u00a0Trey Smith\u00a0the most\u00a0expensive\u00a0interior lineman of all time and using a first-round pick on tackle\u00a0Josh Simmons.<\/p>\n<p>On Sunday, that wasn&#8217;t enough. Simmons is\u00a0away from the team\u00a0dealing with a personal issue, and Moore allowed a sack and seven pressures in his place.<\/p>\n<p>Smith is less than 100 percent as he returns from a back injury, and the Bills atypically went through the star guard easily for a pair of early pressures.<\/p>\n<p>Right tackle\u00a0Jawaan Taylor\u00a0allowed a team-high eight pressures before leaving the game with an ankle injury, turning things over to deposed 2024 left tackle\u00a0Wanya Morris, who allowed four more pressures on just 10 pass-block snaps &#8212; including one by Bosa on the interception to Hairston.<\/p>\n<div class=\"contentItem__content contentItem__content--media-card contentItem__content--fullWidth contentItem__content--inline\" data-behavior=\"video_scroll\">\n<figure class=\"media-wrapper_image video\" data-video=\"watch,640,360,46821939\" data-cerebro-id=\"6907d0dcc66a8438e7af45e3\" data-title=\"Dalton Kincaid brings it down for a Bills TD\" data-source=\"espn\" data-contributing-partner=\"wsc\"><picture class=\"media-wrapper_image\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a4.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" media=\"(min-width: 376px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a4.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a4.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a4.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 375px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a4.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a4.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23%2F7d3bd593%2D4690%2D410b%2D8ac3%2D4b05de09bd23.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" \/><img class=\" imageLoaded lazyloaded\" \/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<div class=\"contentItem__contentWrapper\">\n<div class=\"contentItem__title contentItem__title--media\">Dalton Kincaid brings it down for a Bills TD<\/div>\n<p>Josh Allen connects with Dalton Kincaid to put the Bills in front early vs. the Chiefs.<\/p>\n<p>Without\u00a0Isiah Pacheco, who was sidelined by a\u00a0knee injury, Reid didn&#8217;t seem to want to overload\u00a0Kareem Hunt\u00a0and didn&#8217;t really see\u00a0Brashard Smith\u00a0or\u00a0Clyde Edwards-Helaire\u00a0as anything more than an emergency option.<\/p>\n<p>The Chiefs had a reasonable success rate on the ground, but with no explosiveness, they averaged only 3.8 yards per carry on their halfback runs.<\/p>\n<p>It was clear that Reid didn&#8217;t trust his running game &#8212; or perhaps his offensive line &#8212; in a key spot at the end of the first half. After\u00a0Hollywood Brown\u00a0ran by\u00a0Christian Benford\u00a0for a 47-yard gain, the Chiefs took over on the Buffalo 1-yard line with 20 seconds to go before halftime.<\/p>\n<p>Reid ran Hunt on first down, but\u00a0Jordan Phillips\u00a0went through Taylor to blow up the play for no gain, forcing the Chiefs to use their final timeout. After two incompletions, they faced fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 6 seconds to go, trailing by 11 points.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>This is pretty obviously a clear go-for-it situation.<\/p>\n<p>Unless K.C. really felt strongly that a stop would energize the Bills just before they go into the locker room for 15 minutes (without acknowledging that the touchdown might have a similar impact on the Chiefs) or had some preternatural knowledge of how the rest of the game will play out, it&#8217;s a simple math equation.<\/p>\n<p>You get three points with a field goal or seven with a touchdown. Leaving aside the potential of a blocked field goal or a penalty and an untimed down for ease of calculations, the break-even rate is 43%.<\/p>\n<p>If you think you can convert 43% of the time or more in this spot, you&#8217;re better off going for the touchdown than kicking.<\/p>\n<p>The league-average conversion rate on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line over the past five years, excluding the sneaks that Reid refuses to run with Mahomes, is 54% &#8230; you can decide for yourself if the Chiefs are at least a league-average offense. Harrison Butker kicked the 19-yard field goal.<\/p>\n<p>By the NFL Next Gen Stats model, which incorporates a lot more than that back-of-the-napkin math, the decision to kick the field goal over attempting to convert from a yard out cost the Chiefs 7.5 points of win probability. It&#8217;s the sort of disastrous decision Reid has typically avoided in recent years, both by trusting Mahomes and keeping track with where the league is going. Was he spooked by the first-down stuff? Did he not trust his line? Did he want to get within eight with 30 minutes to go?<\/p>\n<p>Whatever Reid decided, it didn&#8217;t actually help the Chiefs much.<\/p>\n<p>They had to attempt a fourth-and-18 later in the game, miraculously converting when the line was\u00a0so slow pulling a guard to block Bosa\u00a0that he actually stopped with a free path toward Mahomes and looked around for a screen that wasn&#8217;t coming.<\/p>\n<p>They picked up a fourth-and-1 later on that drive with a 2-yard Hunt touchdown and then converted a 2-pointer to get within seven points, plays that likely would have been part of the discussion if the Chiefs had attempted the fourth-and-1 at the end of the first half. It was a major tactical mistake, and while the Chiefs have the margin for error to overcome those against lesser competition, they didn&#8217;t against the Bills on Sunday night.<\/p>\n<div class=\"contentItem__content contentItem__content--media-card contentItem__content--fullWidth contentItem__content--inline\" data-behavior=\"video_scroll\">\n<figure class=\"media-wrapper_image video\" data-video=\"watch,640,360,46823892\" data-cerebro-id=\"6907f0c54e62f67fb8df6805\" data-title=\"Kareem Hunt powers in for a Chiefs TD\" data-source=\"espn\" data-contributing-partner=\"wsc\"><picture class=\"media-wrapper_image\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" media=\"(min-width: 376px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 375px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2Fwsc%2F2025%2F1102%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32%2Fd9d84d81%2D712a%2D4591%2D9b47%2D8b035b7d6a32.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" \/><img class=\"imageLoaded lazyloaded\" \/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<div class=\"contentItem__contentWrapper\">\n<div class=\"contentItem__title contentItem__title--media\">Kareem Hunt powers in for a Chiefs TD<\/div>\n<p class=\"contentItem__subhead\">Kareem Hunt barrels into the end zone to reduce the Chiefs&#8217; deficit vs. the Bills.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Chiefs&#8217; defense also struggled to deal with a schematic shift from the Bills&#8217; offense. Last season, when\u00a0these two teams played, the Bills leaned into playing out of the shotgun or pistol on about two-thirds of their offensive snaps, which was in line with their seasonal rate. There&#8217;s nothing wrong with doing so, especially with Allen and the threat he offers as part of the quarterback run game out of those looks. But it also creates slightly easier paths to the quarterback around tackles, limits some of the run game concepts they can hit and can make it easier to diagnose plays at linebacker.<\/p>\n<p>The league as a whole has shifted more toward under-center drops, but among teams with the same coordinators and quarterbacks, nobody has done so more than the Bills, who have been under center on more than 50% of their offensive plays this season. They were under center nearly 58% of the time Sunday, and Allen&#8217;s offense ran a 62% success rate on those snaps. That fell to 44% out of the shotgun.<\/p>\n<p>The Chiefs don&#8217;t really have an answer for teams that can go under center yet. Steve Spagnuolo&#8217;s defense is fourth in the league in EPA per play against shotgun or pistol snaps, but that falls to 31st when teams are under center. The easiest way for the Chiefs to counteract that is to get an early lead, make the other team one-dimensional with their passing game and force it to work out of the shotgun, but that wasn&#8217;t happening against the Bills.<\/p>\n<p>Instead,\u00a0James Cook III\u00a0ran for 114 yards on 27 carries.<\/p>\n<p>Allen was 6-of-6 for 85 yards throwing under center, including a pair of big completions to his secondary tight ends in\u00a0Dawson Knox\u00a0and\u00a0Jackson Hawes.<\/p>\n<p>Primary tight end\u00a0Dalton Kincaid\u00a0caught six passes for 101 yards, running away from\u00a0Drue Tranquill\u00a0and\u00a0Nick Bolton\u00a0in coverage. The Bills flipped the script, throwing deep to their tight ends and underneath to their wideouts for YAC opportunities. Allen had just one designed run all game (his other carries were sneaks, scrambles and kneel-downs), but it went for 11 yards and a third-down conversion.<\/p>\n<p>The Chiefs will have to come up with new answers for what feels like an inevitable rematch in January. They&#8217;ll hope the offensive line is healthier, count on more attrition for an already banged up Bills defensive line and do whatever they need to do to work out some sort of an apology to the close-game gods. Nobody&#8217;s going to take this loss as proof that the Bills are going to win a rematch after what has happened over the past few years, but this was more a sign that the Chiefs aren&#8217;t going to steamroll\u00a0<i>everybody<\/i>\u00a0now that they&#8217;ve got Rice and Worthy in the lineup together.<\/p>\n<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.co.uk\/nfl\/team\/_\/name\/ind\/indianapolis-colts\" data-clubhouse-guid=\"582d14eb-da61-e505-cc40-d972a1b60ed1\">Indianapolis Colts<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Week 9 result:<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.co.uk\/nfl\/game\/_\/gameId\/401772766\/colts-steelers\">Lost 27-20<\/a>\u00a0to the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.co.uk\/nfl\/team\/_\/name\/pit\/pittsburgh-steelers\" data-clubhouse-guid=\"debcd592-8d53-71f1-fc15-5c8b8ef9df6e\">Pittsburgh Steelers<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Chances to win the Super Bowl before Week 9:<\/strong>\u00a013.0%<br \/>\n<strong>Chances to win the Super Bowl after Week 9:<\/strong>\u00a010.1%<\/p>\n<p>Two days after Halloween, you might not have been shocked to see\u00a0Daniel Jones\u00a0turn into the proverbial pumpkin.<\/p>\n<p>After playing at an MVP level for the league&#8217;s most surprising team over the first two months of the season, Jones had one of his worst games as a pro Sunday.<\/p>\n<p>Facing a Steelers defense that has struggled to stop anybody all season, Jones was responsible for five of Indianapolis&#8217; six turnovers in Pittsburgh, throwing three interceptions and losing two strip sacks&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>He ended up throwing for 342 yards, but it took him a whopping 50 pass attempts to get there, as the Steelers also sacked him five times.<\/p>\n<div class=\"contentItem__content contentItem__content--media-card contentItem__content--fullWidth contentItem__content--inline\" data-behavior=\"video_scroll\">\n<figure class=\"media-wrapper_image video\" data-video=\"watch,640,360,46821626\" data-cerebro-id=\"6907cb5dc66a8438e7af43e4\" data-title=\"Steelers pick off Daniel Jones for the 3rd time\" data-source=\"espn\" data-contributing-partner=\"wsc\"><picture class=\"media-wrapper_image\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" media=\"(min-width: 376px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 375px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993%2Ffe5dd629a7d64967a2603656e277acd3993.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" \/><img class=\"imageLoaded lazyloaded\" \/><\/picture><span class=\"video-play-button\" data-id=\"46821626\">play<\/span><figcaption class=\"media-caption\">\n<div class=\"media-duration\">0:35<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"contentItem__contentWrapper\">\n<div class=\"contentItem__title contentItem__title--media\">Steelers pick off Daniel Jones for the 3rd time<\/div>\n<p class=\"contentItem__subhead\">Joey Porter Jr. makes a big play for the Steelers and picks off Daniel Jones in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Is that too simplistic of an explanation for the loss? Yes. The game actually got off to a solid start for the Colts, as Jones hit\u00a0Alec Pierce\u00a0for a couple of long completions and Indy converted a pair of fourth downs, with Jones plunging in on the second for a 1-yard score. The Steelers then went three-and-out, and while they picked up a short field after\u00a0Josh Downs\u00a0muffed the punt return, the Colts held out and got the ball back on downs. Indy then put together a 17-play drive, including a fourth-and-1 fake punt for a first down.<\/p>\n<p>What looked like a game the Colts were controlling quickly unraveled because of turnovers.\u00a0T.J. Watt\u00a0got underneath\u00a0Braden Smith\u00a0to strip-sack Jones and recover the ball. After the Steelers scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive, Jones tried to work both sides of the field and didn&#8217;t see\u00a0Payton Wilson\u00a0drop into a throwing lane for an easy interception. The Steelers scored again from a short field, and when Jones narrowly missed Pierce on what should have been a 42-yard completion on the next drive, Indianapolis went three-and-out.<\/p>\n<p>When they got the ball back again, the Steelers smelled blood. Jones converted a fourth-and-1, but\u00a0Alex Highsmith\u00a0and\u00a0Joey Porter Jr. sacked him on consecutive plays to force another punt. Jones converted\u00a0another\u00a0fourth down on the next drive, but he tried to throw a quick screen to his slot receiver on second-and-1, and Wilson batted the pass into the air.\u00a0Jack Sawyer\u00a0caught it for what might be considered a bad-luck interception. The Steelers scored a touchdown from that drive to go up 24-7, and that turned the Colts into a one-dimensional offense the rest of the way.<\/p>\n<p>More than anything, if you&#8217;re looking for a reason why Jones struggled so much, I&#8217;d point to the game script and the lack of a run game. Before Sunday, Jones had been trailing on just 27.3% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the league behind\u00a0Sam Darnold, another quarterback who similarly benefits from being in advantageous game scripts. The Colts have been able to lean on\u00a0Jonathan Taylor, play-action, the RPO game and the threat of the run to create conflict for defenses. Those problems have kept opponents from throwing their exotic looks at Jones and limited their ability to rush the quarterback. And to his credit, Jones has done a great job of executing the offense, getting the ball out quickly and hitting throws downfield, which were problems for him with the Giants.<\/p>\n<p>Trailing for most of the day, Jones was stuck in obvious passing situations without the run to slow down Pittsburgh&#8217;s pass rush. The Steelers did a great job of limiting Taylor&#8217;s explosive runs, holding him to 45 yards on 14 carries. They kept Jones from moving around, as he failed to attempt a single pass outside the pocket. And with play-action mostly out of the picture as the game wore along, Jones had to beat the Steelers from the pocket as a dropback passer, which is not where the Colts want him operating.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"inline float-r inline-track\">\n<h2 class=\"img-title\">The latest on the NFL trade deadline<\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"round imageLoaded lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/photo\/2025\/1015\/r1560692_800x320_5-2.jpg\" data-lazyload=\"true\" data-src=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/photo\/2025\/1015\/r1560692_800x320_5-2.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>If anything, the Colts&#8217; defense should be applauded for keeping its team in the contest. While the Steelers didn&#8217;t score on that short field after the muffed punt, they did score touchdowns on two drives that started from their own 44-yard line and another from the Indianapolis 14-yard line. They added a field goal on a possession opening from Indy&#8217;s 34-yard line and lost a fumble on another drive that started in Colts territory. The average Steelers possession Sunday began with just 53 yards to go for a touchdown, the second-best starting field position for a team in a game all season.<\/p>\n<p>Steelers fans (and players) who have heard their defense derided over the past few weeks will have a piece of evidence that the oft-frustrating unit is turning things around, too. This was the best game of the season for the starters in the Steelers&#8217; pass rush, as Highsmith racked up four of Pittsburgh&#8217;s 10 quick pressures on Jones. Without\u00a0DeShon Elliott\u00a0(knee), the Steelers inserted newly acquired safety\u00a0Kyle Dugger\u00a0into the lineup, as the former Patriot played 72 of 74 snaps.\u00a0Jalen Ramsey\u00a0moved from cornerback to free safety on a full-time basis, taking over for the benched\u00a0Juan Thornhill, and the Steelers didn&#8217;t allow a single completion on a throw traveling 20 or more yards in the air.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, it&#8217;s still fair to note that this defense is turnover-or-bust. Mike Tomlin&#8217;s team forces turnovers at the second-highest rate in the league, which is great, but it is still 25th in points allowed per drive when it doesn&#8217;t force a turnover. The Steelers aren&#8217;t going to recover three of the four fumbles they force or have their front-seven players intercept two passes every week, and it remains to be seen if they can turn the defense around during the games where that doesn&#8217;t happen.<\/p>\n<p>And while I referred to the pumpkin at the beginning of this breakdown, I don&#8217;t think this proves that Jones and the Colts are about to fall apart. It might be more realistic to point out that this reflects the limitations of what the Colts can ask Jones to do and how much of the load he can carry. On a day where the Colts weren&#8217;t able to run the ball consistently and their O-line was overwhelmed, Jones couldn&#8217;t transcend and make magic happen in the way that many of the quarterbacks aside him in the MVP discussion have been able to do.<\/p>\n<p>The Colts have just one turnover across their seven wins and seven of them in their two losses. They might not be able to survive two or three turnovers in a game, let alone six.<a name=\"gb\"><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"article-body\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"floatleft imageLoaded\" src=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=\/i\/teamlogos\/nfl\/500\/gb.png&amp;h=110&amp;w=110\" alt=\"\" width=\"31\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.co.uk\/nfl\/team\/_\/name\/gb\/green-bay-packers\" data-clubhouse-guid=\"06cd3bcf-7a86-53d4-28e7-aa049dd36261\">Green Bay Packers<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Week 9 result:<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.co.uk\/nfl\/game\/_\/gameId\/401772872\/panthers-packers\">Lost 16-13<\/a>\u00a0to the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.co.uk\/nfl\/team\/_\/name\/car\/carolina-panthers\" data-clubhouse-guid=\"647c27bf-ab86-550e-5b83-91c29e73e4a9\">Carolina Panthers<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Chances to win the Super Bowl before Week 9:<\/strong>\u00a011.0%<br \/>\n<strong>Chances to win the Super Bowl after Week 9:<\/strong>\u00a06.1%<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s never easy for the Packers, is it? After blowing out the Lions and Commanders to start the season, Matt LaFleur&#8217;s team slopped up a home loss to the Browns and threw away a late lead in a tie with the Cowboys. Week 8 brought a comprehensive victory over the Steelers and a stretch of 20 consecutive completions for Jordan Love, and with the Panthers coming to town, the hope was that the Packers would easily stretch their winning streak to four games before a &#8220;Monday Night Football&#8221; tilt against the defending champion Eagles next week.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"inline float-r inline-track\">Download the ESPN app and enable\u00a0Adam Schefter&#8217;s news alerts\u00a0to receive push notifications for the latest updates first. Opt in by tapping the alerts bell in the top right corner. For more information,\u00a0click here.Well, the Panthers were apparently the\u00a0Miguel Rojas\u00a0to the Eagles&#8217;\u00a0Shohei Ohtani. I&#8217;m not sure trap games are much more than some selection bias, and the Packers have shown us that they&#8217;re perfectly capable of laying an egg without some important game to look forward to the following week, but I wouldn&#8217;t blame anyone for characterizing Sunday&#8217;s loss as a team impudently looking past a lesser opponent in a game everybody expected it to win. Lose to a .500 Panthers team at home as the potential top seed in the NFC, and you&#8217;re going to attract those sorts of headlines. But in reality, I would say that it was a more impressive performance by the Panthers and a bit more bad luck for the Packers than that story would suggest.<\/p>\n<p>Dave Canales and Carolina deserve credit for what they did to win this game. Canales made a tough decision after last week in essentially removing\u00a0Chuba Hubbard\u00a0from a 50-50 running back rotation to give\u00a0Rico Dowdle\u00a0the lead role, even though the organization paid Hubbard much more on an\u00a0extension\u00a0last winter than they did Dowdle on his\u00a0one-year contract\u00a0this spring. Dowdle has been the more productive player, and in the lead back role, he gashed the Packers for 130 yards on 25 carries. Per Next Gen Stats, he generated 44 rush yards over expectation (RYOE), taking his seasonlong total to 172, third in the league behind Cook and Taylor.<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Canales also made a key decision at the beginning of the game that paid off later. The Panthers took the ball to start the game with the idea that it would\u00a0allow them to pick their choice\u00a0of which goal to defend in the second half. The winds were gusting up to 30 mph at Lambeau Field, and that made a big difference, as\u00a0Ryan Fitzgerald&#8217;s 49-yard field goal attempt to win the game came with the wind at the rookie&#8217;s back in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Obviously, the Panthers couldn&#8217;t have known that they would be in position to kick a field goal at the end, but they did a good job of managing the game as a massive underdog. The Panthers converted a pair of fourth-and-1s in their own territory in the first quarter, though one was called back by a holding penalty. Canales kept the offense out for another fourth-and-1 in the second quarter, with Dowdle picking that one up and then scoring a touchdown two snaps later.<\/p>\n<p>The Panthers leaned into the run and played the game at a snail&#8217;s pace, as they took an average of 42.5 seconds between the start of one play and the start of the next, the fourth-slowest rate of any team in Week 9. With the Packers managing long drives on offense, both teams were limited to just seven drives, the fewest for any team since Week 1, when the Colts\u00a0marched all over the Dolphins. Shortening the game reduces the opportunities that a dominant team has to exploit their advantages.<\/p>\n<div class=\"contentItem__content contentItem__content--media-card contentItem__content--fullWidth contentItem__content--inline\" data-behavior=\"video_scroll\">\n<figure class=\"media-wrapper_image video\" data-video=\"watch,640,360,46820426\" data-cerebro-id=\"6907ba614e62f67fb8df55eb\" data-title=\"Jordan Love throws an INT\" data-source=\"espn\" data-contributing-partner=\"wsc\"><picture class=\"media-wrapper_image\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a1.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" media=\"(min-width: 376px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a1.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a1.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a1.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 375px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a1.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a1.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012%2F28c1ae04861944618f8c48776c225c871012.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" \/><img class=\" imageLoaded lazyloaded\" \/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<div class=\"contentItem__contentWrapper\">\n<p class=\"contentItem__subhead\">Jordan Love tries to throws deep to Christian Watson, but he is picked off by Tre&#8217;von Moehrig.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>It also creates the chance for variance to play a bigger role in deciding the outcome, and the Panthers undoubtedly had some breaks go their way. They recovered both fumbles in this game, including a\u00a0Savion Williams\u00a0fumble in the red zone that ended Green Bay&#8217;s opening drive. The other fumble briefly saved a red zone possession for the Panthers, though\u00a0Bryce Young\u00a0did throw a wobbly interception in the end zone two plays later to end the drive.\u00a0Brandon McManus\u00a0missed a 43-yard field goal with the wind to his back in the third quarter, while Fitzgerald hit his only kick of the day. Those little swings of luck mean a lot more in a seven-possession game decided by three points than, say, the\u00a047-42 Bengals-Bears shootout, where both teams moved and scored at will.<\/p>\n<p>Though it&#8217;s not reflected in the final score, the Packers moved the ball effectively throughout this game. Love&#8217;s offense picked up 40 or more yards and multiple first downs on six of their seven drives. An offense that ranked seventh in red zone touchdown conversion rate heading into the game made it into the red zone five times Sunday. Before the Panthers game, the Packers had failed to score on only two of their 30 trips inside the 20-yard line.<\/p>\n<p>So naturally, they failed to score twice in five tries here, converting for just one touchdown and two field goals. Williams lost a fumble to end one drive without any points. On another, the Packers threw a screen into a favorable look on third-and-3, but despite having three blockers against safety\u00a0Tre&#8217;von Moehrig, the Carolina safety overpowered\u00a0Malik Heath\u00a0and blew up the play for a loss of 5 yards.\u00a0Derrick Brown\u00a0then ruined the fourth-and-8 play with a quick pressure past guard\u00a0Jordan Morgan, and while Love scrambled away and kept the play alive for more than 11 seconds before getting a rid of the football, it took a miraculous drop from Panthers cornerback\u00a0Mike Jackson\u00a0to avoid an interception.<\/p>\n<p>Is that bad luck or bad play? A bit of both, of course. It&#8217;s on the Packers to block up screens. Morgan was run through by\u00a0Tershawn Wharton\u00a0for a sack that set another Packers red zone trip back and eventually led to a field goal. Tight end\u00a0Tucker Kraft\u00a0was late getting off the ball on another snap, and when Love scrambled from a relatively clean pocket, he had nowhere to go with the football. In most cases, if the Packers get to the red zone on more than 70% of their possessions and allow 16 points on defense, they&#8217;re going to win. That didn&#8217;t happen here.<\/p>\n<p>Injuries on the offensive side of the ball are beginning to become a real concern for LaFleur, too. The Packers just got\u00a0Christian Watson\u00a0(knee) back, but they&#8217;re already down\u00a0Jayden Reed\u00a0(clavicle\/foot) and\u00a0Dontayvion Wicks\u00a0(calf) at wide receiver. First-round WR\u00a0Matthew Golden\u00a0left the game early in the third quarter and didn&#8217;t return, which is why Heath was on the field for 27 snaps. Guard\u00a0Aaron Banks\u00a0left the game with a stinger after playing just nine snaps, the third time this season the free agent addition has been forced from a game.<\/p>\n<p>The big one, of course, is the\u00a0torn ACL\u00a0reportedly suffered by Kraft. One week after what amounted to his national coming-out party in the win over the Steelers, it looks like the Packers lost their star tight end for the season. In addition to losing Kraft&#8217;s ability after the catch, his injury limits what the Packers can do schematically. Since the start of the 2024 season, the Packers have run 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Unless they&#8217;re going to build that around\u00a0Luke Musgrave\u00a0and\u00a0John FitzPatrick\u00a0(or can add someone like\u00a0David Njoku\u00a0before the trade deadline Tuesday), that&#8217;s going to change. This will need to be more of an 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) offense moving forward.<\/p>\n<div class=\"contentItem__content contentItem__content--media-card contentItem__content--fullWidth contentItem__content--inline\" data-behavior=\"video_scroll\">\n<figure class=\"media-wrapper_image video\" data-video=\"watch,640,360,46821385\" data-cerebro-id=\"6907c7e2a421b770c0832f60\" data-title=\"Panthers top Packers on FG as time expires\" data-source=\"espn\" data-contributing-partner=\"wsc\"><picture class=\"media-wrapper_image\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a3.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" media=\"(min-width: 376px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a3.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a3.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a3.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 375px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a3.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a3.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015%2F153c54d509c74434a35ba2d0f0bac3311015.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" \/><img class=\"imageLoaded lazyloaded\" \/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<div class=\"contentItem__contentWrapper\">\n<div class=\"contentItem__title contentItem__title--media\">Panthers top Packers on FG as time expires<\/div>\n<p class=\"contentItem__subhead\">Ryan Fitzgerald&#8217;s 49-yard field goal gives the Panthers a 16-13 victory over the Packers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>It&#8217;s a frustrating time to be a Packers fan, of course, but I&#8217;m reminded of the team I mentioned in the introduction. The 2010 Packers were 8-6 in mid-December, and three of their losses were to teams that finished with seven wins or less, including teams quarterbacked by post-Eagles Donovan McNabb, Chad Henne and\u00a0Drew Stanton.\u00a0Aaron Rodgers\u00a0had shown a lot of promise, but in the middle of his third year as a starter, he had gone 8-15 in one-score games, including a\u00a051-45 loss\u00a0to the Cardinals in the playoffs. It felt like you couldn&#8217;t trust the Packers, but then they rolled off six straight wins for a Lombardi Trophy and went 15-1 the following season, and Rodgers was on his way to the Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n<p>If Love gets hot, the Packers can go on a run like that. It&#8217;s just going to be harder to get hot without Kraft in the mix.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"article-body\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"floatleft imageLoaded\" src=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=\/i\/teamlogos\/nfl\/500\/det.png&amp;h=110&amp;w=110\" alt=\"\" width=\"31\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.co.uk\/nfl\/team\/_\/name\/det\/detroit-lions\" data-clubhouse-guid=\"56caffee-178d-f6f2-a076-b277486b8c32\">Detroit Lions<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Week 9 result:<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.co.uk\/nfl\/game\/_\/gameId\/401772871\/vikings-lions\">Lost 27-24<\/a>\u00a0to the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.co.uk\/nfl\/team\/_\/name\/min\/minnesota-vikings\" data-clubhouse-guid=\"3db556c9-ed76-a7a5-4ccb-a92fc6db4334\">Minnesota Vikings<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Chances to win the Super Bowl before Week 9:<\/strong>\u00a08.7%<br \/>\n<strong>Chances to win the Super Bowl after Week 9:<\/strong>\u00a05.4%<\/p>\n<p>Detroit&#8217;s hold over the rest of the NFC North is getting shakier. After going 5-1 against the Packers and Vikings over the past two years, the Lions have now lost their opening games against both of their divisional brethren in 2025. And while this game was closer than that blowout\u00a0loss to the Packers\u00a0in Week 1, the story of how the Vikings slowed down the Lions and their high-powered offense was similar.<\/p>\n<p>To stop the Lions, start with run defense. The Vikings invested heavily in the interior of their defensive line this offseason,\u00a0signing\u00a0Jonathan Allen\u00a0and\u00a0Javon Hargrave\u00a0to big deals, and I have to imagine that beating the Lions was one of the goals they had when making those decisions. Hargrave had his best game of the season Sunday, racking up a sack and two tackles for loss, including one where he squeezed through a double-team and snatched\u00a0Jahmyr Gibbs\u00a0down for a 2-yard loss.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"inline float-r inline-track\">\n<h2 class=\"img-title\">All of ESPN. All in one place.<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/plus.espn.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"imageLoaded\" src=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/photo\/2025\/0813\/r1531432_1296x729_16-9.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"100%\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Gibbs and\u00a0David Montgomery\u00a0combined for only 65 yards on 20 carries against the Vikings, with just 25% of their carries producing successful runs by the NFL Next Gen Stats model.<\/p>\n<p>There wasn&#8217;t much to be gained &#8212; the two backs finished with only minus-5 RYOE, suggesting they basically got what was available. But their longest run of the day was also just 11 yards, and that ended with Montgomery fumbling the ball away to the Vikings.<\/p>\n<p>Hargrave was excellent, but it was a team effort.<\/p>\n<p>Minnesota&#8217;s cornerbacks &#8212; including\u00a0Fabian Moreau, who had played just three snaps before Sunday &#8212; did a good job holding up against blocks and forcing those potentially devastating outside runs by Gibbs and Montgomery back inside.<\/p>\n<p>The outside linebackers, including the returning\u00a0Andrew Van Ginkel, didn&#8217;t get shoved backward to create soft edges very often.\u00a0Jalen Redmond\u00a0played a season-high 92% of the defensive snaps as part of bigger Vikings defensive fronts.<\/p>\n<p>The average Lions run came with just 2.1 yards before first contact. The only game where they&#8217;ve had less space to work with, unsurprisingly, was that Week 1 matchup against the Packers.<\/p>\n<p>Taking the run out of the equation forces\u00a0Jared Goff\u00a0into the dropback pass game, and like Daniel Jones, that&#8217;s not where he wants to live. In the past, the Lions have been able to pick apart the Vikings and their exotic blitz looks by getting the ball out to their dynamic playmakers and using motion to create conflict. Last season, with the Vikings tormenting teams by loading up the line with pass rushers and either sending the house or playing safe two-deep coverage behind, Detroit went back to the days of the\u00a0mid-aughts Patriots\u00a0in pulling out a protection using its wide receivers in motion to protect Goff and create big-play opportunities downfield.<\/p>\n<p>You can imagine Flores spending weeks this offseason building pressures to attack the interior of the Lions&#8217; O-line, especially after Detroit lost Frank Ragnow to\u00a0retirement. Whether it was an offseason project, a few extra days of prep after the Vikings played on\u00a0Thursday night last week\u00a0or the return of a\u00a0key player\u00a0in Van Ginkel, Flores&#8217; defense was back on its 2024 level. It sacked Goff five times, and four of those sacks came from initial pressure through the middle on twists or cross-dog rushes.<\/p>\n<p>Minnesota&#8217;s linebackers, led by\u00a0Eric Wilson, ran at and through Gibbs, who spent most of his day in pass protection, for a handful of pressures. And when the Lions tried to run screens and quick-game concepts to get the ball out before those looks could get home, the Vikings generally did an excellent job of tackling. Minnesota hit Goff 11 times and had a whopping 10 tackles for loss. Across his two games against the Vikings last season, Goff went 29-of-35 for 298 yards, 2 touchdown passes and 2 picks against the blitz, taking just one sack. On Sunday, he was 7-of-12 for 61 yards and a sack in those same spots.<\/p>\n<p>The quarterback on the other side of the field also had something to prove. Few quarterbacks have inspired stronger opinions in shorter periods of time than\u00a0J.J. McCarthy, who was making his third career start after dealing with a\u00a0torn meniscus\u00a0in 2024 and a\u00a0high ankle sprain\u00a0in 2025. The optimistic side noted that McCarthy had won NFC Player of the Week in his debut\u00a0win over the Bears\u00a0and battled the ankle injury and the exhaustion of being a\u00a0new parent\u00a0in Week 2. The pessimistic side pointed out that McCarthy had been a replacement-level QB in seven of his first eight quarters as a pro.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m not sure how one can draw any meaningful conclusions on a quarterback after two pro starts, but the talk that the Vikings were going to realistically consider benching their 2024 first-round pick after two games for\u00a0Carson Wentz\u00a0was always absurd, even before Wentz went down with a\u00a0season-ending shoulder injury.<\/p>\n<p>Making that much-anticipated third start, McCarthy gave both sides of the argument some more material. He put together an underwhelming stat line, going 14-of-25 for 143 yards, with two passing touchdowns, an interception and five sacks. He was pressured on more than 58% of dropbacks, occasionally because of his own predilection for moving outside of the pocket. That would be fine if it worked, but McCarthy went 1-of-7 for 7 yards on throws outside of the pocket.<\/p>\n<p>Yet at the same time, McCarthy made some unquestionably impactful plays. On the opening drive, he read blitz and got the ball out quickly to\u00a0Aaron Jones Sr. on a screen to convert a third-and-9 for a first down, then hit\u00a0Justin Jefferson\u00a0with a fade that only the star receiver could catch for a 10-yard score. McCarthy found\u00a0Jordan Addison\u00a0downfield on third-and-9 on the next drive for 31 yards before tossing a 7-yard score to\u00a0T.J. Hockenson\u00a0on a boot concept in the red zone. With Jefferson briefly injured in the third quarter, McCarthy ran away from pressure, juked out\u00a0Alex Anzalone\u00a0and scrambled to the end zone for a 9-yard score.<\/p>\n<p>Want to anoint McCarthy as the next sensational young quarterback? He led three touchdown drives on the road against one of the best teams in football and then hit\u00a0Jalen Nailor\u00a0on a back-shoulder throw on third-and-9 to seal the victory.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Want to be skeptical?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Vikings converted three short fields off a long kickoff return, a fumble recovery and a blocked field goal (and subsequent return) into 17 of their 27 points.<\/p>\n<p>They had just one drive rack up more than 36 yards all game and were 15th out of 26 teams in EPA per play on the offensive side of the ball. I&#8217;d like to see more games before I actually form any sort of meaningful opinion about McCarthy, but if you want to have a strong stance after three games, Sunday gave you something to chew on, regardless of which side you take.<\/p>\n<div class=\"contentItem__content contentItem__content--media-card contentItem__content--fullWidth contentItem__content--inline\" data-behavior=\"video_scroll\">\n<figure class=\"media-wrapper_image video\" data-video=\"watch,640,360,46820615\" data-cerebro-id=\"6907bcefa421b770c0832c98\" data-title=\"J.J. McCarthy keeps it for a 9-yard rushing TD\" data-source=\"espn\" data-contributing-partner=\"wsc\"><picture class=\"media-wrapper_image\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" media=\"(min-width: 376px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;h=360&amp;cquality=80&amp;format=jpg\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 375px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001.jpg&amp;w=335&amp;cquality=80, https:\/\/a.espncdn.com\/combiner\/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2025%2F1102%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001%2F78e27c2672f14e5ab27328b2963835df1001.jpg&amp;w=670&amp;cquality=40&amp;format=jpg 2x\" \/><img class=\"imageLoaded lazyloaded\" \/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<div class=\"contentItem__contentWrapper\">\n<div class=\"contentItem__title contentItem__title--media\">J.J. McCarthy keeps it for a 9-yard rushing TD<\/div>\n<p class=\"contentItem__subhead\">J.J. McCarthy rolls to his right and turns upfield for a 9-yard rushing touchdown.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Lions have more pressing concerns.<\/p>\n<p>Some things did go their way Sunday. The Packers weren&#8217;t able to stretch their lead in the NFC North, and the Commanders, whom the Lions travel to face next week, won&#8217;t have\u00a0Jayden Daniels\u00a0after the second-year quarterback suffered a gruesome\u00a0elbow injury\u00a0in their blowout\u00a0loss to the Seahawks. First, though, GM Brad Holmes has to face the trade deadline and decide how aggressively he wants to add to this Lions team as it tries to get over the hump in the NFC.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Just when we were beginning to confidently pick the real Super Bowl\u00a0contenders,\u00a0Week 9\u00a0shuffled the top of the NFL&#8217;s deck. Four of the five favorites to win this&#8230; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":117039,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-117029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\ud83d\udea8\ud83c\udfc8 NFL SHOCKWAVE: Super Bowl favorites fall apart in Week 9! 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