{"id":116820,"date":"2025-11-03T09:12:29","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T09:12:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=116820"},"modified":"2025-11-03T09:13:02","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T09:13:02","slug":"winners-arent-built-by-throwing-money-at-stars-theyre-forged-in-chemistry-culture-and-the-kind-of-ruthless-patience-the-dodgers-and-blue-jays-mastered-while-the-mets-kept","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=116820","title":{"rendered":"Winners aren\u2019t built by throwing money at stars \u2014 they\u2019re forged in chemistry, culture, and the kind of ruthless patience the Dodgers and Blue Jays mastered while the Mets kept chasing shortcuts. LA and Toronto built cores, trusted development, and played the long game, while New York kept spinning the roster wheel and expecting instant glory. If the Mets don\u2019t adjust their blueprint, they won\u2019t just fall short \u2014 they\u2019ll keep watching real contenders lap them from every corner of baseball\u2019s new era..ll"},"content":{"rendered":"<div dir=\"auto\">\n<div><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!kwM5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a51b6ce-2b11-41f7-88dd-e502ac851dad_856x567.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>When the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers advanced to the 2025 Fall Classic, baseball viewers everywhere were promised the privilege of watching the league\u2019s two best offenses duke it out on the national stage. Naturally, I was curious to see if any obvious statistical trends would emerge over the course of the series; maybe these two teams can passively impart some lessons onto Mets brass that can help inform roster construction in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>However, so far, only one remaining team has truly shown up to play.<\/p>\n<p data-attrs=\"{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.justmets.net\/subscribe?utm_source=subscribe-widget&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=0&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Upgrade to a paid subscription!&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:&quot;button-wrapper&quot;}\" data-component-name=\"ButtonCreateButton\">Upgrade to a paid subscription!<\/p>\n<p>Through these first five games, the Blue Jays have played almost exactly to their per-162 statistical standard, while the Dodgers have fallen painfully below their regular-season thresholds. Here\u2019s where each pennant-winning offense stood entering the postseason, plus the Mets\u2019 season line for comparison:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>TOR 2025:<\/strong> .265\/.333\/.427, .761 OPS, 17.8 K%-8.4 BB%, .162 ISO, .298 BABIP, -4.9 wSB, .330 wOBA, 112 wRC+, 85.0 wRAA, 81.24 RE24<\/li>\n<li><strong>LAD 2025:<\/strong> .253\/.327\/.441, .768 OPS, 21.9 K%-9.4 BB%, .188 ISO, .289 BABIP, -2.3 wSB, .331 wOBA, 113 wRC+, 91.1 wRAA, 96.26 RE24<\/li>\n<li><strong>NYM 2025:<\/strong> .249\/.326\/.427, .753 OPS, 21.4 K%-9.1 BB%, .178 ISO, .287 BABIP, 12.3 wSB, .326 wOBA, 112 wRC+, 66.4 wRAA, 59.63 RE24<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>On the surface, the Mets\u2019 offense doesn\u2019t look like it was much of a problem \u2014 and to a point, that\u2019s true. They kept pace with the AL and NL champs in terms of basic slash line, OPS, K-BB%, ISO, BABIP, wOBA, and wRC+. However, we know from painful experience how little of the story those surface stats actually tell. (More on that shortly.)<\/p>\n<p>Now, let\u2019s look at the World Series slash lines:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>TOR World Series:<\/strong> .261\/.341\/.389, .730 OPS, 19.0 K%-9.5 BB%, .128 ISO, .297 BABIP, -0.6 wSB, .317 wOBA, 105 wRC+, 1.0 wRAA, 2.69 RE24<\/li>\n<li><strong>LAD World Series:<\/strong> .201\/.296\/.354, .651 OPS, 25.3 K%-11.1 BB%, .153 ISO, .236 BABIP, -0.5 wSB, .279 wOBA, 79 wRC+, -5.5 wRAA, -8.30 RE24<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Huh\u2026quite the performance discrepancy from LA.<\/p>\n<p>While the Dodgers\u2019 pitching staff hit a historic stride that had many people (including yours truly) convinced that overachieving arms would ultimately win the series, I\u2019ve generally always believed that getting on base and maximizing scoring opportunities is the ultimate key to winning any series, let alone the World Series. After running the numbers on the last 10 teams to win the whole thing and comparing their metrics to this season\u2019s contenders, that remains true. The Jays have continued to create runs at their expected frequency of output; the Dodgers\u2026have not.<\/p>\n<p>This may come as a surprise, but among the most recent World Series winners, elite slugging and pitching haven\u2019t been reliable predictors of success. Rather, the true harbingers of good things to come can be found lurking in the deep data.<\/p>\n<p>All but two World Series champions in the past decade have ranked in the top 7 in advanced run creation metrics like <strong>weighted on-base average (wOBA)<\/strong> and <strong>weighted runs above average (wRAA)<\/strong>. These two stats are excellent indicators of whether an offense is a well-rounded run producer or a boom-or-bust collection of big boppers. wOBA credits every offensive action (walks, singles, doubles, etc.) based on its true run contribution, and wRAA converts that value into a raw number of runs generated <em>above<\/em> the league average player.<\/p>\n<p>Still, while wOBA and wRAA are helpful and important in telling the story of a player\u2019s or team\u2019s offensive season, they only give you so much information, as they\u2019re context-neutral. A lineup can have a great group wOBA, but the team will still lose close games if it fails to score in high-leverage spots (sound familiar?)<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s where even <em>deeper <\/em>data joins the party.<\/p>\n<div>\n<figure><figcaption>(Eric Canha\/Imagn Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>In baseball, context is everything. It goes without saying that not all hits are created equal: a bases-empty, two-out single in the second inning and a bases-loaded, two-out single in the seventh carry vastly different levels of influence on win probability. Enter: <strong>RE24.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>RE24 (Run Expectancy for 24 Base-Out States)<\/strong> is a context-dependent statistic that measures the change in the team\u2019s expected run total for the rest of that inning, based on the 24 possible combinations of base runners and outs. Those combinations come from the eight ways the bases can be occupied (empty, runner on first, runners on first and second, etc.) multiplied by the three possible out counts (0, 1, or 2). Each of those 24 situations has an expected number of runs that are typically scored from that point forward.<\/p>\n<p>Essentially, RE24 rewards hitters for delivering the \u2018right\u2019 outcome at the \u2018right\u2019 time. A player gets a hit, and depending on the in-game situation, RE24 tracks how the hitter\u2019s action changes that moment\u2019s run expectation. For example, Juan Soto led the Mets this year with a 51.84 RE24; that would mean his plate appearances were worth about 52 more runs than would have been created by the average player in the same situations.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s see how the Mets stacked up against the Dodgers and Blue Jays in regular-season RE24 in 2025:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Dodgers:<\/strong> 96.26 (2nd)<\/li>\n<li>B<strong>lue Jays:<\/strong> 81.24 (4th)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mets<\/strong>: 59.63 (7th)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>When looking at RE24 among recent World Series champions, their consistent proficiency in this area is impossible to ignore; eight of the last 10 champions ranked top 5 in RE24, and all of them were top-10 in the league in their championship season. Only the 2021 Braves and 2022 Astros won the World Series with a team RE24 of under 70; half of them posted marks of at least 120. So, while the Mets just barely squeaked into a top 10 position, relative to what we\u2019ve established as a theorized recipe for success, they were actually lagging quite a bit behind their contemporaries in the run expectancy department.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also noteworthy that, though there\u2019s often a power correlation, RE24 doesn\u2019t always directly align with slugging or ISO rankings. This is a testament to the limit of power value, as your team\u2019s ability to deliver a big hit semi-regularly doesn\u2019t guarantee it will also deliver runs in optimal situations.<\/p>\n<p>And speaking of situational hitting and power\u2026while the Mets\u2019 overall power metrics kept pace with top offenses like the Dodgers and Blue Jays, you don\u2019t need me to remind you how bad the Mets were with runners aboard.<\/p>\n<p>Specifically, though the Mets matched the Jays and Dodgers in regular-season XBH total, New York also delivered 30 fewer singles than LA and nearly 100 fewer hits than Toronto with runners on base. While matching the power output of the league\u2019s top units is something to strive for, that power output also clearly didn\u2019t push enough runs across the plate to put the Mets in a position to contend. Those missing hits, scaled across a full season, represent an enormous loss of expected runs.<\/p>\n<div>\n<figure><figcaption>(Sam Navarro\/Imagn Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Ok, so a well-rounded, efficient offense is the cornerstone of a championship \u2014 feels obvious enough. But where do pitching and defense factor in?<\/p>\n<p>Looking at the numbers, the necessity of a top pitching staff to win the World Series is surprisingly overstated when compared to that of a consistent offense. Some recent World Series winners have done so with rotations that ranked as low as 15th in the league in regular-season ERA and\/or FIP. That\u2019s not to say good pitching and a solid bullpen aren\u2019t important, by any means \u2014 they are. They\u2019re just not as crucial a piece to the championship puzzle as one might think.<\/p>\n<p>Rather, the multiple champions that lacked a consensus Top-5 rotation compensated by relying on two things: reliable depth and, you guessed it, consistent run support.<\/p>\n<p>As for the relevance of defense to the championship equation, the data shows significant fluctuation in how frequently a stalwart defensive club wins the title. It needs to be at least average to be functional, and having a top-rated unit is an obvious plus, but recent history hasn\u2019t shown defense being a make-or-break factor here, at least not in the way run creation is.<\/p>\n<div>\n<figure><figcaption>(John Fisher\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>So, what does David Stearns do with all the info I just dumped? We all remember how clear he was that \u201crun prevention\u201d will be a \u201cpoint of emphasis\u201d this winter. While plugging defensive holes and fortifying the pitching staff are certainly crucial moves for reinforcing our foundation, the established championship blueprint suggests that increasing run creation* from this roster is arguably as important as anything else. And that could mean some incredibly unpopular decisions are on the horizon.<\/p>\n<p>In the spirit of the holiday, let\u2019s address the very scary elephant in the room: losing Pete Alonso is a possibility this winter. It would mean instantly losing 40+ homers and 100+ RBIs per season; that\u2019s incredibly difficult to replace, if not impossible, both on the field and in the locker room. However, if we are speaking purely analytically, and taking Stearns\u2019 commitment to improvement at face value\u2026letting Alonso go and making a move for someone like Josh Naylor makes a lot of sense for this club\u2019s future.<\/p>\n<p>If we were to reduce their value strictly down to their stats, Alonso posted a 27.63 RE24 mark in 2025, while Naylor posted a 32.89 mark across both teams he played for. Alonso directly provided 30 more homers and 30 more RBIs to the Mets\u2019 run total, but Naylor brought run creation value in the form of base-stealing, a higher on-base rate, and vastly better defensive range to his teams. While the loss incurred by Pete\u2019s departure would be beyond significant, adding a player like Naylor that offers new value outside the batter\u2019s box that was previously missing may, in fact, be the move this team needs to make most, especially as its offensive identity continues to evolve.<\/p>\n<p>This isn\u2019t me saying I\u2019m rooting for Pete to go anywhere; I\u2019m not, at all. All I\u2019m saying is that the heat is definitely cranked in the front office, and if Stearns and Cohen are feeling the pressure to bounce back in a big way next year, I wouldn\u2019t be shocked to see something so seismic.<\/p>\n<p>On paper, the Mets were solid enough last year, but they will need to be much better next year if they want to contend seriously. I\u2019m equally curious and nervous to see what side of the game Stearns actually prioritizes when signing time comes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The secret to constructing a true contender may actually lie more in run creation* than prevention&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":116824,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-116820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Winners aren\u2019t built by throwing money at stars \u2014 they\u2019re forged in chemistry, culture, and the kind of ruthless patience the Dodgers and Blue Jays mastered while the Mets kept chasing shortcuts. LA and Toronto built cores, trusted development, and played the long game, while New York kept spinning the roster wheel and expecting instant glory. If the Mets don\u2019t adjust their blueprint, they won\u2019t just fall short \u2014 they\u2019ll keep watching real contenders lap them from every corner of baseball\u2019s new era..ll - News 365<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=116820\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Winners aren\u2019t built by throwing money at stars \u2014 they\u2019re forged in chemistry, culture, and the kind of ruthless patience the Dodgers and Blue Jays mastered while the Mets kept chasing shortcuts. 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If the Mets don\u2019t adjust their blueprint, they won\u2019t just fall short \u2014 they\u2019ll keep watching real contenders lap them from every corner of baseball\u2019s new era..ll - News 365","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=116820#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=116820#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/LUU-20.jpg","datePublished":"2025-11-03T09:12:29+00:00","dateModified":"2025-11-03T09:13:02+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/#\/schema\/person\/4b0ce8eb15dad4ee0f31887a7eb66fb6"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=116820#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=116820"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=116820#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/LUU-20.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/LUU-20.jpg","width":1080,"height":1080},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/?p=116820#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/new365.azontree.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Winners aren\u2019t built by throwing money at stars \u2014 they\u2019re forged in chemistry, culture, and the kind of ruthless patience the Dodgers and Blue Jays mastered while the Mets kept chasing shortcuts. LA and Toronto built cores, trusted development, and played the long game, while New York kept spinning the roster wheel and expecting instant glory. 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