The Los Angeles Lakers made the fateful decision to select Tennessee sharpshooter Dalton Knecht with the 17th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. This has been widely hailed as a weak rookie class, but there have been a few standouts — none more impressive of late than Knecht, who appears to be earning a starting job for the 10-4 Lakers.

Knecht has started the last three games for Los Angeles with Rui Hachimura sidelined. It’s unclear what exactly happens once Hachimura returns, but somebody is going to lose their starting spot to Knecht — either Hachimura himself or recent implant Cam Reddish, who replaced the now-sixth man D’Angelo Russell.

We probably should’ve seen this coming. Knecht is the perfect rookie for new head coach JJ Redick — a bonafide movement shooter and connector who occupies a role similar to what Redick once mastered. He’s more than just a shooter, though. Knecht came alive as a fifth-year senior for the Volunteers, scoring prolifically at all three levels as one of college basketball’s most varied and electric offensive engines.

In a weak class, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the seasoned 23-year-old is standing apart from the crowd. We saw something comparable with Miami’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. last season — an older rook finding immediate paydirt in a contending rotation.

We should be cautious about sweeping conclusions after 14 games. For example: Detroit’s Ron Holland, my No. 1 prospect, has four years until he’s the same age as Knecht is right now. It’s no surprise that Knecht is ahead of the curve, but the real test will be if he can stay ahead of the curve for years to come.

That said, it’s hard to deny the early returns, which have seen Knecht contributing in extremely valuable ways offensively. So much of a rookie’s success comes down to situation and Knecht was lucky enough to land with Redick, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and an offense that will milk his skill set to the fullest.

Here are a few lottery teams that could be feeling regretful.

3. Detroit Pistons

I am a firm believer in Ron Holland’s NBA future. He’s already defending like hell and the offense will come along with time (and, ideally, some future development from his teammates). That said, the Detroit Pistons were always a tough draw for Holland, whose limitations as a shooter will inherently impact his ability to fit next to Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, and Detroit’s top prospects.

Knecht would be playing real minutes right now in Detroit. There’s a good chance he would’ve been in line for 25-30 minutes a night out of the gate, rather than waiting for that window to eventually crack open in LA. We’ve seen the benefits of putting real spacers around the Pistons’ young core; Detroit is currently 7-9, which is seventh in a wide-open Eastern Conference.

In Knecht, Detroit would’ve had a moldable, high-volume shooter who can get downhill and torch rotating defenses off the catch. He’s a real athlete with vertical pop around the rim and a tremendous knack for locating (or creating) angles to the basket. He’s never been a high-assist guy, but Knecht can finish plays and operate, potentially, as a second or third scoring option next to a star like Cunningham.

Holland overlaps uncomfortably with Ausar Thompson and others in Detroit. Knecht, not so much.

2. Charlotte Hornets

The Charlotte Hornets are beginning to show signs of life behind tremendous output from LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Tre Mann. Charles Lee is doing exciting things and getting real progress from a team that has been stagnant for ages. We’ve always been able to say this Hornets team has promise. Now we’re starting to see that promise fulfilled, bit by bit.

Charlotte was one of the teams most connected to Knecht before the draft. In the end, French forward Tidjane Salaun was the (rather controversial) pick at No. 6 overall. The 19-year-old is the poster child for an NBA Draft project; there was never going to be an immediate return on investment here. Salaun is an incredible athlete at 6-foot-9, but his lack of polish as a scorer and decision-maker will make it difficult for Charlotte to keep him on the court consistently.

We won’t be able to render the final judgment for years, but Knecht certainly would’ve been an immediate contributor in Charlotte — probably even a starter. His shooting and slashing chops would’ve popped next to LaMelo. That’s an awesome offensive combo to think about. We shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves with Knecht praise, but if there’s a lottery team that feels particularly destined to regret their gamble, it’s Charlotte.

1. San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs effectively passed on Dalton Knecht twice — drafting Stephon Castle at No. 4 and then trading out of the No. 8 pick, which became Rob Dillingham. I’d still take both Castle and Dillingham over Knecht right now, especially Dillingham, but the Spurs are in an interesting spot. Castle probably wasn’t the best pick in the No. 4 slot; he’s not the point guard San Antonio needed and his lackluster shooting is a tough sell next to Victor Wembanyama, Jeremy Sochan, and San Antonio’s other core pieces.

Castle is going to defend like hell and make solid decisions on or off the ball, but he’s a developmental project on the scoring front. The Spurs are still very much tanking, but the timeline is accelerated slightly with a generational talent like Wemby. Sooner than later, San Antonio will want to start winning games. Not much is guaranteed in a draft, but Knecht’s gravity, decisiveness, and complementary scoring chops almost definitely would’ve played well next to Wembanyama.

If Knecht can sustain and build upon his current success, the draft board will start to look a little silly. The Spurs need 3-point volume as much as any team in the league and Knecht would’ve made immediate inroads in that department, all while giving the Spurs perhaps their most dynamic and well-rounded scorer outside of Wemby and Devin Vassell. This is a seriously compelling what-if.