The best-case scenario for the Miami Heat during the upcoming season is much better than pundits seem to think. It’s also intrinsically tied to a myriad of factors, a few of more significant than a potential fourth-year leap from versatile forward Nikola Jovic.

That’s why all members of Heat Nation who’ve been keeping tabs on EuroBasket, quite possibly the springboard to a breakout season, surely held their breath when a hand injury recently forced the 22-year-old off the floor. It’s also why they collectively let out the exhale of all exhales when he was able to make it back onto the hardwood.

A brief injury scare suffered on the opposite side of the globe may not sound like much, but the worry of it being something more was surely enough to shake this fanbase. Because few players will have a more direct impact on how high this group can climb during the upcoming campaign than Jovic.

A serious injury to Jovic would’ve been a colossal loss for this club.

For casual observers, they might be surprised to hear Jovic regarded in such a fortune-changing kind of fashion. Since being made the 27th pick of the 2022 draft, he has done very little on the stat sheet to indicate such importance to the organization.

Last season was basically his best to date, and it hardly resembled the work of true difference-makers. He averaged 25.1 minutes over 46 games (10 starts), compiling per-game marks of 10.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists to go along with a 45.6/37.1/82.8 shooting slash.

Not exactly earth-shattering stuff, right?

And yet, he may have still done enough to help his hype train chug along. His per-36-minutes production pointed to the well-rounded nature of his skill set: 15.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 2.4 three-pointers, per Basketball-Reference. The list of players who actually put up 15/5/4/2 stat lines only ran 13 players deep, and most are on a first-name (or nickname) basis with even casual fans: Joker, Shai, LeBron, KD, Ant, Luka, per StatHead Basketball.

To take things a step further, only six of those players—Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyler Herro, LeBron James, and Desmond Bane—bested Jovic’s 59.5 true shooting percentage.

In other words, even in a season as seemingly quiet as Jovic’s 2024-25 campaign, there were statistical indicators that he is (or at least can be) a really special offensive player. And, remember, this was before he upped his profile by dazzling in a much more featured role on the Serbian national team.

Skill-wise, Jovic seems ready for a full-fledged breakout. Even in a positionless league where everyone can seemingly do everything, you just don’t find many 6’10” players who can handle, shoot, and distribute like he does. Consistency remains an ongoing challenge, but it’s also imperative to note he’s yet to have consistency with his floor time and role. Plus, that’s just generally an unchecked box with a lot of young players.

There aren’t many reasons to worry about Jovic—since the hand thing thankfully appears to be nothing—and conversely a whole heap of reasons to get excited about what he’ll do this season. If he takes a big jump toward realizing his full potential, Miami should be, at the very least, a team no one wants to draw come playoff time.