The New York Mets (73-64) travel to the Motor City for a three-game set with the Detroit Tigers (80-58). While both teams have had hot streaks this season, the teams are meeting at a time when their playoff hopes are still fairly secure but their play makes the prospect of a long playoff run somewhat murky.

For the Mets, this season continues to befuddle and beguile. After statements like taking two of three from the Braves in Atlanta and a sweep of the Phillies at home, the Mets lost three of four to the lowly Marlins. The Marlins series is a great example of how the Mets keep shooting themselves in the foot over and over.

In Thursday’s series opener, the team looked utterly lethargic after Nolan McLean’s gem on Wednesday night. Clay Holmes went five innings and, while only giving up two earned runs, saw four runs cross the plate while he was on the mound because of poor defensive play. After the offense powered them back, the poor defense struck again when the team committed two errors in the seventh that led to three runs and cost the Mets the game.

For Jonah Tong’s debut on Friday night, the offense showed up and hit up and down the lineup: six homers, 19 runs, and a comfortable cushion for a big league debut. But poor play saw the Marlins score four runs in Tong’s last frame, extending the inning and limiting the length of his first start.

Saturday saw David Peterson deflect a first inning double play ball that snowballed into a five-run first inning that also saw Brandon Nimmo totally misjudge a ball in the outfield. Again, the Mets offense, this time powered by a two-dinger performance from Juan Soto, knotting up the game at 8-8. But once the Mets tied the game, their offensive powers seemingly left them not just for the rest of Saturday’s game, but Sunday’s as well, with only one run scoring over the next 12 innings.

It is this kind of inconsistency that is absolutely maddening. Thankfully, the Reds have gone two and eight over their last ten games and have given the Mets a comfortable(ish) four game lead in the third Wild Card race. But for a team that four games ago looked like they were getting ready to challenge for the division title, taking three losses from a team that’s seven games under .500 is not exactly sending that message.

The Tigers have run away with the American League Central, but their status as the best team in baseball went away when the Brewers turned on the afterburners. The second best team in their division is not just nine and a half games behind them, but also three games back in a very crowded AL Wild Card race, and so the Tigers have been in the enviable position of laying back a little bit and just trying to maintain while waiting for the playoffs.

Thankfully for the Mets, they are missing Tarik Skubal, the Tigers’ pitching phenom who is looking like a lock to win his second AL Cy Young award in a row. He’s currently leading the league in ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched, FIP, WHIP, walks per nine, strikeouts per nine, strikeout to walk ratio, and ERA+.

The Tigers currently 14th in overall team pitching, according to Fangraphs. However, their success is coming mostly from their starters; the bullpen ranks 25th in baseball and, aside from closer WIll Vest, the rest of the ‘pen has been mediocre to downright bad. Without their best starter and with a bad bullpen, the Mets will look to keep their offense hot, forget about the final 12 innings against the Marlins, and score enough runs to push past Detroit this series.

As far as the Tigers’ offense goes, catcher Dillon Dingler, in addition to sounding like a Golden Age Superhero secret identity, has been the biggest surprise of the season. In just his second year in the majors, he’s hitting .277/.325/.435 with 12 home runs, which may not look impressive due to a certain Mariner with a big ass, but for a backstop this is quite good. That line puts him fourth in baseball in fWAR, but he’s only 0.2 fWAR behind Alejandro Kirk in second place and 0.1 behind Will Smith in third place. Cal Raleigh is having such an off the charts season that he is making the very good seasons by the trio behind him seem unexceptional, but Dingler is having an excellent year.

Beyond Dingler, outfielder Riley Green, third baseman Zach McKinstry, second baseman Gleyber Torres, and first baseman Spencer Torkelson are all having fine years as well. The Tigers’ offense is well balanced, with a few power hitters (Torkelson and Green) having big power years and the rest of the team keeping the line moving.

While this team is clearly good enough to get through the regular season with ease, the shaky bullpen and the lack of a second or third shut down starter means that the Tigers are going to have to really rely on their offense to go deep in the postseason. Is this team built for it? We’ll see in a few weeks.

Manaea (2025): 41.1 IP, 53 K, 8 BB, 6 HR, 5.01 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 123 ERA-

Ever since returning from the Injured List, it has been one step forward, two steps back with Manaea. After a few solid, though brief, appearances in July, August has been another story: 19 earned runs in 24 innings. With the exception of Tuesday’s comeback win against the Phillies and a game against the Angels at the end of July, the Mets have lost every one of Manaea’s appearances this season.

David Stearns seems to believe that Manaea is still building up his strength and, while his last start wasn’t perfect, his stuff did look better. So if that is the case, then this would look to be, hopefully, another step in the right direction.

Morton (2025): 128.2 IP, 137 K, 58 BB, 20 HR, 5.25 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 129 ERA-

Charlie Morton has been in the majors since 2008 and he hasn’t had a season where he is this ineffective since 2015. Since joining Detroit at the trade deadline, he’s had two terrible starts and three very good ones. At 41 years old, his stuff doesn’t have the same zip it once did, but he’s crafty and a wise acquisition by the Tigers. He’s faced the Mets 26 times in his career, and is 7-7 with an ERA of 3.75 and 137 strikeouts.

McLean (2025): 20.1 IP, 21 K, 4 BB, 1 HR, 0.89 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 22 ERA-

There’s not much more than can be said about McLean’ first three starts. He’s in rarified air and, for a franchise with as much stellar starting pitching as the Mets have had, he’s tops over his first three career starts.

Montero (2025): 73.1 IP, 53 K, 25 BB, 13 HR, 4.66 ERA, 5.08 FIP, 114 ERA-

A number of reports speculate that Keider Montero will be added to the 28-Man Roster by the Tigers when rosters expand today, and Fangraphs has him listed as the starter for Tuesday’s game. Montero made 16 starts in 2024 (98.1 IP, 77 K, 31 BB, 19 HR, 4.67 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 118 ERA-) and nine thus far this season. Ahead of the 2024 season, our SB Nation associates at Bless You Boys had Montero listed as the ninth best prospect in the Tigers’ system (he was considered graduated in 2025 and was thus not listed).

Holmes (2025): 142.1 IP, 111 K, 56 BB, 12 HR, 3.60 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 88 ERA-

It feels like we’ve been debating the merits of the Holmes to the rotation move all season and there still isn’t total clarity on the subject. If Manaea and Senga were throwing better at the moment, there would be much louder ‘Holmes to the bullpen’ cries coming from all over. But right now, of the three starters who have been deficient in going deep, Holmes has actually looked the best of the bunch. But that doesn’t dismiss the fact that Holmes needs to go deeper into games or, at the very least, be more effective in his limited time on the mound. How he still is throwing 12% better than league average (by ERA-) is somewhat surprising.

Mize (2025): 120.2 IP, 107 K, 32 BB, 17 HR, 3.95 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 97 ERA-

In a year that saw Mize make his first All-Star team, things have taken a turn since the Mid-Summer Classic. Since then, Mize has put up a crooked number in all but one in his starts, and has only gone six innings twice. In his last start against the Athletics, he only went three and a third innings, giving up five earned runs on seven hits and two walks. He’s still slightly better than league average on the year and, looks like a good match-up for Holmes.

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