When NBA analysts look at the Miami Heat, they sum up their outlook for the 2025-26 season with a collective shoulder shrug. They aren’t impressed with their offseason, they aren’t putting them on national TV, and they aren’t willing to give Kasparas Jakucionis a free pass for his underwhelming summer.

The Heat should be keeping receipts—presuming, that is, they have enough whiteboard space to feature all of the disrespect. The latest jabs included ESPN pegging Miami as a play-in team, and Bleacher Report giving this offense an entirely uninspiring C grade.

While some degree of skepticism is warranted following Miami’s 45-loss showing this past season, analysts are underselling this squad’s upside to an alarming degree. The Heat have a legitimate chance to make noise in the wide-open Eastern Conference,

Overlooking Erik Spoelstra’s club is almost always a bad idea.

The Heat, to be clear, probably don’t mind the skepticism. “Us against the world” is a popular rallying cry among professional sports teams for a reason. If they feel slighted by the masses, that might give them added motivation to prove the doubters wrong.

That’s not, however, the crux of the sales pitch for the Heat being a sneaky sleeper for next season. There are basketball reasons to believe this group is poised to overperform all external expectations.

With Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton sidelined by torn Achilles, Damian Lillard waived by the Milwaukee Bucks, and medical red flags perpetually flying around the Philadelphia 76ers, how many Eastern Conference clubs have definitively better duos than Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo? The former just booked his first All-Star trip during a sizzling age-25 season, while the latter has earned three All-Star nods and five All-Defensive selections.

I’m not saying I’d take Herro and Adebayo in an NBA Jam style two-on-two tournament or anything, but that’s a firm foundation to build around. Especially when there’s a conductor like best-in-the-business head coach Erik Spoelstra behind the wheel.

All three played pivotal roles in the franchise’s recent success (three Eastern Conference finals trips and two NBA Finals berths between 2020 and 2023). And while they no longer have Jimmy Butler alongside, they also don’t have the unnecessary distraction of his prolonged departure that plagued them for much of this past season.

What they do have now is steal-of-the-summer Norman Powell, who just pumped in a career-high 21.8 points on 48.4/41.8/80.4 shooting. And a full offseason and training camp with Andrew Wiggins, a tenacious defender who’s been an 18.5-point scorer for his career and a 38.1 percent three-point shooter for the past five seasons. And the aforementioned Jakucionis, who clearly needs some polish but also offers hope of eventually filling their playmaking void.

There is high-end talent and depth on this roster. There is a mastermind on the sideline, and some of the sharpest basketball minds and best number-crunchers in the front office. There are also trade assets at the ready should the right superstar ever shake loose.

This could be a pretty good team, and given the state of the conference overall, pretty good seems good enough to score a playoff (not play-in) invitation and make things interesting upon arrival.