The Kansas City Chiefs are by no means reaching the end of the road with Patrick Mahomes. However, they may be at a significant reckoning point.

Entering his ninth NFL season, and the eighth as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, Mahomes, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, is as accomplished as any player before him when counting his individual and team accolades.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Key Factor in Ominous Trend

Chiefs Defense Covering For Patrick Mahomes, Offense

As his 30th birthday nears, things have changed drastically around Mahomes since Year 1 with the Chiefs. The Athletic’s Jeff Howe noted the “surreal” way conversations around the Chiefs have “changed,” particularly over the past two seasons.

“In a discussion of their roster makeup with rival executives, the conversation quickly pivots to their defensive identity,” Howe wrote on August 29. “No one is diminishing Patrick Mahomes’ body of work, but the ongoing turnover in offensive personnel has taken a toll on his statistical production. The Chiefs averaged 493 points during Mahomes’ first five seasons as the full-time starter, but just 378 over the past two seasons.”

From 2018 through 2022, on average, Mahomes threw for 4,791.4 yards, 38.4 touchdowns, and 9.6 interceptions, while completing 66.4% of his passes, per campaign. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Mahomes averaged a 4,055.5-26.5-12.5 line on 67.3% completion.

Both his air yards per attempt and yards per completion each fell roughly 2 yards in that span.

That is as much a function of the turnover at the Chiefs’ skill positions and along the offensive line as it is an indictment of Mahomes. He admitted to shifting to a “game manager” in 2024.

Chiefs Outmaneuvered Sting of Patrick Mahomes’ Contract

Mahomes is on a 10-year, $450 million contract, and the exorbitant nature of the deal has impacted the Chiefs’ ability to build out the rest of the roster. They could be back to their explosive ways this coming season, but the trend is not just a matter of concern in Kansas City.

Moreover, there is an argument to be made that Mahomes is now relatively underpaid, as Howe previously explained.

“The Chiefs have set the standard as a modern-day dynasty, but they’re not dealing with the QB contract boom in the same way. Not anymore at least. Mahomes’ deal has since become outdated, ranking 15th in average annual value. He’s behind [Deshaun] Watson, who won’t play this season with a twice-torn Achilles, and tied with Kirk Cousins, who is the Atlanta Falcons’ backup,” Howe wrote on August 28.

“The Chiefs had to make sacrifices — none bigger than trading superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the middle of his prime. But they also had to let cornerback Charvarius Ward walk in free agency and trade L’Jarius Sneed, among other examples.”

Howe noted that most QBs are not Mahomes, which is obvious.

It could also apply to Mahomes not being the same QB he once was. Perhaps more importantly, how that could, and maybe should, impact their roster building as he gets even deeper into his career.

The reality is the Chiefs’ narrative could keep trending away from Mahomes as he ages.

Patrick Mahomes Emulating Early Tom Brady

Howe’s most recent piece pointed to Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo being “regarded among the best” at what he does. All-Pro defensive lineman Chris Jones is an “interior enforcer” and “on a Hall of Fame trajectory.”

Both help the Chiefs ease Mahomes’ burden.

In that sense, it is the opposite trajectory of NFL legend Tom Brady. Specifically, it is similar to Brady’s run early in his New England Patriots tenure.

Brady, whom Mahomes is compared to in the debate for the G.O.A.T. QB, began his ascension as the beneficiary of a great defense and timely playmaking. He became the driving force as he matured.

For Mahomes, a natural playmaker, that maturation is being the “game manager.”

He can still pull the big throws out of his bag. Mahomes also still moves around the pocket well and even breaks free when needed.

But Mahomes is playing a brand of ball that seems commensurate with the Chiefs’ roster build. He can also still take advantage of his opportunities. Mahomes has weapons like Rashee Rice (when he returns from a six-game suspension) and Xavier Worthy at his disposal. Travis Kelce is still around, too.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are no longer viewed as a juggernaut, even after winning 15 games.

That, and the potential narrative that their offense will not recover from the Super Bowl debacle, could set Mahomes and the Chiefs up for a veritable bounce-back season.