Let’s get it out in the open—there’s a very real possibility Josh Giddey re-signs with the Chicago Bulls on the qualifying offer. What was once dismissed as unlikely is now a conceivable reality.

Although Giddey’s qualifying offer is substantially below his reported $30 million asking price, it allows him flexibility next offseason. Moreover, his $11.14 million qualifying offer isn’t drastically lower than the Bulls’ reported offer.

Remember, Chicago offered the 22-year-old point guard roughly $80 million over four seasons. That’s $20 million on average, but in all likelihood, Giddey wouldn’t earn $20 million next season at a flat rate.

For example, the player whom Chicago traded for Giddey, Alex Caruso, signed a four-year, $81 million extension with the Oklahoma City Thunder in December. Caruso won’t earn $20 million this upcoming season; he’ll take home $18.1 million (well, less than that to be precise, but you get the point). In 2025-26, he’ll earn $19.5 million, then $20.9 million, and lastly $22.4 million in 2028-29.

Signing a qualifying offer wouldn’t ruin Josh Giddey

The difference between Caruso’s $18.1 million and Giddey’s $11.14 million isn’t all that different. ESPN’s Tim Bontemps pointed it out—if Giddey signs the qualifying offer, he’d only have to sign a three-year, $69 million contract to get his money back.

It’s a win-win for the Bulls, but surely a risky maneuver. There’s no telling whether Giddey would actively explore the unrestricted free agent market next season, even if such a gentleman’s agreement were in place. Perhaps, not coming to terms on a long-term contract will miff Giddey and his camp.

The 6-foot-8 point guard believes he’s worthy of $30 million per season, and rightfully so. He performed at a near-All-Star level over the last quarter of the season. He raised his counting stats to a near triple-double at 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game, while exploring new elements to his game.

Of course, he’d earn a tick over $30 million in 2026-27, but it comes after missing out on a hefty chunk of change in 2025-26, at least in Giddey’s eyes. The difference between $30 million and $11.14 is substantial.

Nevertheless, his representation should be well aware that it’ll be almost impossible for Giddey to be gifted a deal that pays him $30 million on average. The 22-year-old has no leverage. He’s a restricted free agent with no feasible avenues besides returning to Chicago.

Unlike his fellow restricted free agents—such as Jonathan Kuminga, who has also received an offer—Giddey’s qualifying offer more closely aligns with the Bulls’ $20 million proposal, making it all the more enticing. Kuminga should, and will continue to play hardball, since his qualifying offer is merely $7.9 million, about $14 million below his reported offer from the Golden State Warriors.