Bulls’ success tied to one key advantage over its opponents

Nov 18, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Tobias Harris (12) defends against Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine (8)

The Chicago Bulls defeated the Detroit Pistons 122-112 following an excellent shooting display. The Bulls connected on 23-of-46 triples, just a few days after missing 42 three-point attempts in a lopsided 143-107 loss to the Houston Rockets.

The Bulls earned their sixth win of the season, a 10-point victory over Detroit, despite being outrebounded, losing the turnover battle, and allowing 50 points in the paint. The win was undoubtedly linked to knockdown shooting. Chicago bested Detroit in field goal, three-point, and free-throw percentage.

After knocking down 23 threes against the Pistons, the Bulls are now averaging 18.2 triples per game in wins and 16.0 per game overall. Chicago has converted on 20 or more three-pointers in four games this season—three of which have been wins.

In Chicago’s 15 contests this season, they’re 5-3 when making more three-pointers than their opponent, 1-5 when making less, and 0-1 when evening their opponent’s total. There’s no one key to victory besides scoring more points, but knocking down more three-pointers is a close second for the Bulls.

Chicago has lived and died by the three this season, ranking in the top three of the association in three-point makes and attempts, yet eighth in percentage. This comes a season after ranking 27th, 26th, and 20th, respectively. Coincidentally, the Bulls’ pace has increased from 96.94 to a league-leading 105.20.

The Bulls are playing expeditiously and launching gobs of three-pointers—a vast difference in playstyle compared to last season. However, as previously stated, the Bulls’ new formula is bound to lose some games, as evidenced most recently by Chicago’s 36-point loss at the hands of the Rockets.

Winning five games while losing three when making more triples isn’t an absolute signifier of winning basketball, but it’s as close as it gets for the 6-9 Bulls. The 1-5 record when knocking down fewer threes is what’s more concerning.

Funny enough, the Bulls’ only victory came against the New York Knicks, a game decided by three Coby White free throws with three seconds to go. If not for Josh Hart fouling White’s three-point attempt, Chicago would likely be 0-6. Unless, of course, if White converted the attempt, that would move this instance to the “matching opponent’s makes” category as the Knicks connected on 15 to the Bulls’ 14 triples.

The Bulls’ defense is incapable of winning games

Hypothetical scenarios aside, evidence supports the Bulls’ winning formula. Chicago is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, allowing the second-most points, field goal percentage, and turnovers per game. The Bulls also force the fewest turnovers in the association, at 12.0 per game. Chicago’s margin for error is incredibly slim.

That said, relying on knockdown shooting while hemorrhaging points is no way to ensure victories. Nevertheless, superb three-point shooting goes a long way in today’s league. Six of the top 10 best three-point shooting teams possess winning records, culminating in a 61.8 win percentage.

One might wonder what the Bulls would look like with a fortified or at least league-average defensive unit, and that’s a fair question. Unfortunately, this iteration of the Bulls doesn’t possess the personnel to excel on the less glamorous end. Sans an impressive 2022-23 season, the Bulls have been wholly unsuccessful on the defensive end in recent memory.

It begins with reshaping the starting lineup, a starting five that ranks in the 42nd percentile in points allowed per 100 possessions. Swap Josh Giddey for Ayo Dosonmu, and this Bulls lineup ranks 26th percentile in the same category. Diving into Chicago’s defensive woes will come at another time and probably another time after that. Still, for now, it’s important to note the Bulls’ strength is shooting, and this team is much better when they connect on more three-pointers than their opponents.

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