It may be the dog days of summer, but the Miami Heat have an opportunity to do something magical: undermine Jimmy Butler and the Golden State Warriors by poaching Al Horford.
The 39-year-old is widely expected to wind up with Chase Center’s residents once they wrap up their Jonathan Kuminga nightmare business. Still, as Jake Fischer recently noted for The Stein Line, at least one team is “somewhat hopeful” that Horford will lose “patience with the wait and suddenly invite new offers.”
Miami just so happens to have room for another big. Tons of room, actually. This team is so small that head coach Erik Spoelstra will invariably field small lineups in danger of being too tiny.
Horford is not conventionally huge himself, at 6’9”, but he’s a real, live, actual center. The Heat cannot say that for anyone else other than Bam Adebayo, and Kel’el Ware. It also helps that the 2023 champ has enough outside range to play beside either Adebayo or Ware, permitting Miami to trot out dual-big combinations that don’t compromise offensive spacing.
Miami can offer Horford way more money than the Warriors
Really, there’s no argument against Horford’s fit. He is the ideal offseason addition for the Heat. Especially this time of year. Whether they can pry him from the Warriors’ clutches is a separate matter.
If money still talks, they absolutely can.
Golden State is expected to sign Horford using the mini mid-level exception, which tops out at a salary of $5.7 million. Miami has yet to use its non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $14.1 million. Now, the Heat can’t spend the entire thing, because they don’t have enough room beneath the first apron, which you cannot exceed when offering the bigger MLE. But as of now, they have more than $7 million in runway, and can give Horford a salary in that range.
Miami can also up the ante if that’s not enough for him to bite. Moving Terry Rozier and his $26.6 million cap hit verges on impossible without attaching assets. Simone Fontecchio’s $8.3 million expiring contract is a different story. Another team is bound to take him into their own exception given his size and shooting ability. At worst, the Heat should be able to flip him for a player making only half of his salary.
Every dollar they save in this scenario can go towards increasing Horford’s offer. If the Heat get off Fontecchio’s entire salary, they could give Horford all of the bigger MLE—more than double what Golden State is dangling.
Miami getting revenge is icing on the cake
Punting on Fontecchio’s spacing may not sit right after shipping Duncan Robinson to the Detroit Pistons. Then again, it’s not even clear how much he’ll factor into the rotation if Miami is invested in the continued development of Pelle Larsson, and Jaime Jaquez Jr.
The Heat certainly don’t have to worry about potentially overpaying Horford. He can’t sign a deal longer than two years. If his value goes belly up, he still comes off the books by the time they enact their grandiose summer of 2027 plans.
Messing with Butler and Golden State is just a bonus. Make no mistake, it’s the mother of all bonuses. The Warriors desperately need dynamism and spacing in its frontcourt with Butler, Draymond Green, and, potentially, Kuminga all logging heavy minutes. Stealing Horford out from under their noses would be equal parts vengeful, and hysterical.
Above all, though, it’s just good business.