Before this gets under way, know that no one is supposing that two starts can be predictors of future success. No right-minded person would possibly argue that because of Nolan McLean’s two very solid starts as a Met that he will be instantly enshrined among the Mets pitching greats of the past. Beyond the obvious small-sample size issue, Major League Baseball history is littered with stories of pitchers who came up hot and then petered out quickly.
However, since Matt Harvey’s debut in 2012, there have been nine starting pitchers who have emerged as major league regulars who the Mets had at least some hand in developing. Some of those, like Harvey and Noah Syndergaard have already ended their playing career, but most of these players are still pitching somewhere in the big leagues. I’m also including Christian Scott, who was very much the 2024 version of McLean, in terms of being the young gun coming up to help the team mid-season, even though his injuries have limited him to just nine starts thus far.
So, not for any scientific rationale, but just to remember some guys and their early performances, let’s take a look back at McLean and the other starters across their first two starts as Mets.
| Name | Debut Date | Game 1 IP | Game 2 IP | Total IP | Game 1 Hits | Game 2 Hits | Total Hits | Game 1 Ks | Game 2 Ks | Total Ks | Game 1 BBs | Game 2 BBs | Total BBs | ERA after both games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Harvey | July 26 2012 | 5.1 | 6 | 11.1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.59 |
| Zack Wheeler | June 18 2013 | 6 | 5.1 | 11.1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 3.18 |
| Jacob deGrom | May 15 2014 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2.77 |
| Noah Syndergaard | May 12 2015 | 5.1 | 6 | 11.1 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3.18 |
| Steven Matz | June 28 2015 | 7.2 | 6 | 13.1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1.32 |
| Seth Lugo | August 8 2016 | 6.2 | 5 | 11.2 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2.51 |
| David Peterson | July 28 2020 | 5.2 | 6 | 11.2 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3.86 |
| Tylor Megill | June 23 2021 | 4.1 | 5 | 9.1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4.82 |
| Christian Scott | May 4 2024 | 6.2 | 6 | 12.2 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.84 |
| Nolan McLean | August 16 2025 | 5.1 | 7 | 12.1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.46 |
Looking at this, McLean is fourth in innings pitched, first in fewest hits allowed, second in most strikeouts, tied for third in fewest walks allowed, and second in ERA. Again, this is fun, but probably means nothing.
While Steven Matz has put together a nice career, based on his first two starts, he looks like he would’ve been the best of the bunch. Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler, clearly the two best pitchers in this batch (thus far), looked far more pedestrian in their first two starts than their careers would indicate now.
Is there anything to really glean from McLean’s first two starts? Possibly, but it is more in the stuff that doesn’t show up in the box score. Obviously his stuff, especially breaking balls, looks amazing, but that was true in Triple-A as well. After tripping on his first pitch of the game against the Braves, he didn’t get rattled at all and settled in for a great start. When plays weren’t made behind him, he didn’t show much emotion, but simply took the ball and kept rolling. Seeing how well he handled himself on the mount means something, but theres much to be seen, including how he handles himself on the mound during rough patches, that will tell just as much, if not more, about McLean’s future as a pitcher in the majors.
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