While Manchester City and Pep Guardiola may enter the upcoming clash as favourites on paper, history suggests the contest against Tottenham Hotspur is rarely straightforward for the Catalan tactician. Guardiola’s overall record against Spurs stands at 11 wins, nine defeats, and three draws across 23 encounters — a surprisingly balanced tally for a manager who has dominated English football for much of his tenure.

That statistic alone underlines why Guardiola will remain cautious despite his side’s recent 4-0 demolition of Wolves. City may be reigning champions and brimming with quality, but Tottenham have a long-standing habit of upsetting the Sky Blues, often exploiting weaknesses that other teams struggle to target.

Even Thomas Frank — who has his own experience of engineering shocks against Guardiola while at Brentford — admitted this week that he considers the City boss the greatest manager the game has ever seen. But while he was full of admiration for Guardiola’s brilliance, he also hinted that Tottenham possess the tools to cause City problems at the Etihad.

Kudus and Johnson: Spurs’ attacking threats

Much of the early attention ahead of this blockbuster fixture has understandably been on Mohammed Kudus. The Ghanaian winger, a new arrival in North London, has made an instant impact by notching two assists against Burnley last weekend. His creativity, ability to beat defenders, and composure in the final third make him an obvious danger man.

Yet Guardiola may have more reason to be wary of Brennan Johnson. The Welsh forward, much like former Spurs talisman Son Heung-min, thrives in exploiting space behind high defensive lines. His pace, directness, and finishing ability mean he is perfectly suited to capitalising on one of City’s few consistent vulnerabilities: defending against quick counter-attacks.

City’s commitment to a high line under Guardiola has often been their strength — suffocating opponents by compressing play — but it leaves them exposed when facing speedy attackers who can time their runs intelligently. Johnson, a £47.5 million signing from Nottingham Forest, has already shown he can punish such weaknesses. Against Burnley, his blistering run and calm finish sealed Spurs’ third goal, a reminder of how devastating he can be in transition.

This is not a new problem for Guardiola’s men. Last season, Johnson also found the net in Tottenham’s emphatic 4-0 win over City, arriving in the right place at the right time to slot home. For all their brilliance going forward, the champions’ defence has occasionally shown cracks, particularly when confronted with direct runners like Johnson. Even Bernardo Silva has admitted City can be unsettled by fast counter-attacks — a frank acknowledgment of a flaw that Spurs will no doubt seek to exploit.

Brennan Johnson vs Manchester City: The numbers

That being said, Johnson’s overall record against Manchester City paints a more modest picture. In eight appearances against Guardiola’s side, the 24-year-old has managed just one goal and one assist. His personal results are evenly balanced: two wins, two defeats, and four draws.

The statistics suggest he has not always been decisive in these encounters, but context is crucial. Johnson was often part of weaker sides before joining Spurs, meaning his opportunities to influence games against a team of City’s calibre were limited. Now, in a Tottenham system designed to counterpunch with speed and precision, his skill set is arguably more dangerous than ever.

City’s balancing act

For Guardiola, the challenge will be to ensure City’s defensive structure remains disciplined without compromising their attacking fluency. The 4-0 win against Wolves was impressive, with Nico Gonzalez standing out as a bright spark, but there were still moments when Vitor Pereira’s side troubled City on the break. Against a sharper opponent like Tottenham, such lapses could prove costly.

Thomas Frank’s Brentford teams exposed similar weaknesses in City by sitting deep and springing forward quickly, and Spurs under Ange Postecoglou have shown they are capable of a similar approach. If Guardiola’s backline struggles to contain Johnson and Kudus, another shock could be on the cards.

A high-stakes clash

Ultimately, while City’s quality ensures they enter this fixture as favourites, the unpredictability of Tottenham makes them dangerous opponents. Brennan Johnson may not boast the most glittering record against City, but his pace and movement remain a nightmare for defenders. If the champions fail to nullify his threat, the Welshman could very well tilt the balance in Spurs’ favour once again.