It’s no secret that the contract the Lakers gave guard Austin Reaves when he hit free agency in 2023–four years and $54 million–was a rock-bottom NBA bargain. Many expected Reaves to get something in the four-year, $100 million range, but under league rules, the Lakers were not allowed to pay Reaves at that level and, ultimately, he could not get anyone else to make that investment, either.

So he took his hefty deal from L.A. and is now careening toward his next crack at free agency, next summer when he surely will exercise his player option.

As one executive told Tim Bontemps of ESPN, “I think he will get $30 [million] plus.” That’s per season, of course, and could mean that Reaves is in line for a five-year, $150 million megadeal.

Lakers Could Benefit

Ah, but not all executives agree. One GM said he thinks Reaves will be, “a little bit of a test case” for the NBA’s new, stiffer luxury-tax rules.

“Two years ago, Reaves would get $30 million, no doubt,” the GM said. “If there had been more (cap) space, he might have gotten it then. There has been a mindset to being willing to overpay players based on, almost, where they’re supposed to slot in. So, Zach LaVine got $215 (million) even though the Bulls knew they did not want to give it to him and tried to trade him as soon as they did give it. And there’s 15, 20 guys like that.

“You can’t do that anymore. You can’t just say, ‘Well, he averages 20 (points) so he needs to get $30 (million) per year.’ No. You’re going to have to take these negotiations more seriously. You’re going to have to be realistic about what a guy is worth, on both ends of the floor, before you put a number out there. And Austin Reaves should get $24, $25 (million) a year. Not $30.

“It matters.”

If teams are being tighter, of course, that figures to benefit the Lakers.

Lakers Will Have Cap Space

Reaves had a breakout season, averaging 20.2 points. But he remains a defensive liability, and a player who has struggled in the playoffs. More important, while there will be teams with cap space next season, it’s still a limited field.

It could held Reaves that, other than the Lakers and the Clippers, the rest of the list of teams with cap space are is made up of mostly teams that are low on talent–teams like Washington, Charlotte, Chicago and Brooklyn could have space.

But the league’s salary cap will be set at a lower mark than expected. That’s going to eat into cap space for a player like Reaves.

Austin Reaves Contract: ‘It Only Takes One’

Said another NBA executive, “Look, $30 million for Austin Reaves, it only takes one team to make the offer and I don’t think you can rule that out. But everything is tighter now. Derrick White gets $30 million from the Celtics, and so you have to ask, does Austin Reaves affect winning as much as Derrick White?”

We have seen players like Jonathan Kuminga and Josh Giddey seeking paydays in the $30 million range per year in restricted free agency. Neither is going to get anything close to that level.

Reaves is a better player than either. But some expect him to feel the chill of cooled NBA spending next summer.

“We’ll see what kind of year he has, that’s going to be a factor,” the executive said. “And we’ll see what kind of things teams do that give them more or less space. But I would not assume $30 million for Austin Reaves. It could be a wake-up call for a lot of guys.”