The Miami Heat aren’t exactly facing great expectations heading into the 2025-26 NBA campaign. The Heat have failed to reel in a big fish this offseason — even though guard Norman Powell is a notable addition for Miami — and they’re on the heels of an embarrassing stint in the 2025 NBA Playoffs.

If the Heat were to land in the play-in field again this season before having another forgettable playoff series, probably not too many people would bat an eye. But there’s a possibility that Miami exceeds expectations, as it has done numerous times under the guidance of head coach Erik Spoelstra, who might just be the best coach in the league.

Let’s look at the upcoming season for the Heat with the glass half full and try to gauge their best-case scenario. We’ll look at where they could finish in the Eastern Conference, how deep of a playoff run they could embark on and a few players who could make statements.

Where might improvement come from?

Tyler Herro

In an ideal scenario for the Heat, Herro takes the leap from a great offensive player to one of the elite scorers in the NBA in his seventh season in the league. He ranks among the top 10 in the NBA in points per game and averages more than 26 per contest while shooting 45-plus percent from the field and 38-plus percent from 3-point range. His scoring average has steadily improved in recent years, and that upward trend continues into the new campaign.

Norman Powell

Powell proves that his standout scoring season with the Los Angeles Clippers was no fluke and scores the ball at a similar rate in his debut campaign with the Heat. He averages 20-plus points per game all while showing noticeable improvement on the defensive end. The 32-year-old was known for his defensive chops earlier in his career, and he rediscovers that identity playing for a Heat franchise that prides itself on that end of the floor.

Kel’el Ware

Ware builds on his promising rookie campaign that saw him finish sixth in the league’s Rookie of the Year voting and stakes his claim as one of the better young big men in the NBA. He averages a double-double of 12-plus points and 10-plus rebounds along with 1.5 blocks per game as a sophomore. Ware solidifies himself as a player the Heat can build around.

Earning a top-5 finish in the East?

The Eastern Conference doesn’t project to be all that formidable in the coming season. The Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks are heavyweight contenders, and teams like the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic have improved on paper compared to a season ago, but the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers have taken noticeable steps back.

Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton has been ruled out for the entirety of the 2025-26 season with an Achilles injury, and Indiana also lost big man Myles Turner to the Milwaukee Bucks in free agency. To boot, the Celtics gutted their roster this offseason in light of star Jayson Tatum going down with an Achilles injury of his own in the 2025 NBA Playoffs.

Elsewhere, the Bucks, Detroit Pistons and maybe the Philadelphia 76ers are among the wild cards in the conference.

In the best-case scenario for the Heat, some of the Eastern Conference teams with question marks going into the season fail to maximize their potential. With boosts from the likes of Herro, Powell and Ware, Miami wins 48 games and secures the No. 5 seed in a weakened East.

Such a win total for Miami in the 2025-26 campaign would mark the team’s most victories since it won 53 games in the 2021-22 season. The Heat later reached the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals before losing to the Celtics in seven games.

Finding some postseason magic?

If the circumstances allow, Miami could feasibly do some damage in the 2026 NBA Playoffs.

In this scenario, Miami starts out the 2026 NBA Playoffs without home-court advantage in a series against a team like the Pistons, but the Heat win the first-round matchup regardless thanks to having the coaching advantage as well as the edge in playoff experience.

After the Heat win their first-round series in a hard-fought six games, Miami takes on the Knicks in the second round of the playoffs, avoiding the Cavs thanks to New York surprisingly earning the top seed. Despite facing long odds, Miami gives a star-studded New York squad a real run for its money.

The Heat muddy the game up in their series against the Knicks, finding ways to win ugly. Miami shocks the world and forces the Knicks to a Game 7, but New York’s talent level is too much to overcome, and the Knicks take the deciding game and the series.

There are plenty of Heat fans who would likely be happy with Miami’s progress if the team were to come up just one win short of an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals this coming season.