New York Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns seems rather confident about his team’s chances to make the playoffs. According to FanGraphs, New York currently has an 89.1% chance to make a run at the MLB Postseason, so you can understand why he holds such an unwavering view of his ball club heading into the second-half of the season.

“Once you’re able to get a team that’s able to get into the tournament, seeding is helpful, the bye is helpful, but goal one is getting into the tournament,” Stearns said during an appearance on MLB Network. “We think that once we’re there, we have a bullpen and a team as a whole that has a chance to advance and go pretty far.”

Reading between the lines, it’s quite clear that Stearns feels as though the Mets did enough at the MLB trade deadline and have essentially locked up a spot in the playoffs and will be one of the six teams vying for the NL pennant when the playoffs start come October. But is the Mets’ top decision-maker overlooking the Cincinnati Reds?

One quick glance at the National League standings would suggest Stearns’ confidence may be misplaced. The Reds pulled off a 5-1 win against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday night and the Mets fell to the Cleveland Guardians by a final score of 3-2. New York is now tied for the final NL Wild Card spot with the San Diego Padres.

The Mets have now lost three straight and are 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Padres, on the other hand — who just picked up a bevy of talented players at the MLB trade deadline — have won eight of their last 10 games and are poised to leapfrog the Mets in the Wild Card standings. The Reds have pulled to within three games of both the Friars and the Mets, and could creep even closer this weekend.

While the Reds’ schedule over the final two months is no picnic, the Mets have to tangle with some tough foes as well. Among those on New York’s upcoming schedule are the Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers, and Milwaukee Brewers.

The Reds took 2-of-3 against the Mets after the All-Star break and came within an eyelash of a three-game sweep. The Reds will welcome to the Mets to Great American Ball Park next month in what has the potential to be a pivotal three-game series.

So while Stearns appears to be counting his chickens before they’ve hatched, the Mets’ top exec may want to think twice before providing one of his closest competitors with some bulletin board material.