Beginning on October 1, Tyler Herro will be eligible to sign a three-year extension with the Miami Heat worth up to $149.7 million. And if the organization wants to keep the good offseason vibes going, it should steer clear of offering him a deal inside that ballpark.

This has little to do with Herro’s contributions or his importance to the team overall. There is no arguing his in-house value anymore.

Bam Adebayo is the only player who usurps him in the franchise’s pecking order. Miami has also doubled-down on its faith in Herro by not adding a conventional floor general this summer, or another on-ball scorer like Jonathan Kuminga. (Norman Powell can do some on-ball work, but the lion’s share of his utility isn’t rooted in self-creation.)

Still, signing Herro to the full freight gets dicey when scaling forward. The Heat have set themselves up to be incredibly flexible next summer if Andrew Wiggins declines his player option, or in 2027, when Wiggins, Herro, and Davion Mitchell will all be coming off the books.

A Tyler Herro extension eats into the Heat’s 2027 offseason flexibility

Assuming the salary cap continues to increase by 7 percent, Miami is scheduled to have over $90 million in spending power during the summer of 2027. That is money the front office can use to help grease the wheels of a blockbuster trade, sign a star free agent, or even do both.

Tacking on any money whatsoever by extending Herro compromises that financial pliability. His new deal would kick in for the 2027-28 campaign—so, during the 2027 offseason. If the Heat give him the full boat now, he’ll be on the docket for $46.2 million, which obliterates more than half of their projected cap space.

That is largely fine should Miami believe Herro will command that price point on the open market. He’d be eligible for a $53.1 million starting max salary if he hits free agency. But the odds of him getting that money are slim. The bar for max contracts is being raised in the Era of Aprons. Herro is not someone guaranteed to be worth 30 percent of the salary cap for the life of his next deal.

Even signing him to a max extension now means he will, on average, account for 28.1 percent of the cap during those three years. That’s not a terribly higher number, but it’s also not a bargain.

Extending Tyler Herro can also hurt the Heat next season, too

Negotiating an extension with Herro gets a lot more interesting if he’s not signing for the full three years and $150 million. That still doesn’t make it a slam dunk.

Miami continues to be among those monitoring the availability of Giannis Antetokounmpo. If Herro signs an extension that gives him more than a 20 percent raise, he won’t be trade-eligible for six months. And since he can’t get a new deal until October, this removes him from any midseason package the Heat might need to cobble together for Giannis or another star. Plus, even if he could be moved, there’s no guarantee another team values the additional years and money lopped onto his current deal.

Sure, we’re trafficking in layered hypotheticals here. But that is how big-name hunting works in the NBA. The Heat are assured of nothing. All they can do is largely what they’ve done so far: maintain flexibility on both the forthcoming free-agency and trade markets. Extending Herro this October would run in stark contrast to that plan.