Everyone and their second cousin’s barber’s favorite barista seems inclined to write off the Miami Heat as nothing more than paper tigers until they acquire another star. But The Ringer’s Zach Lowe does not subscribe to this particular brand of groupthink—not because he thinks the team has an unexpected star hiding in plain sight, but because this roster has quietly assembled real depth.

“What I see there is depth,” the veteran NBA insider said on a recent episode of The Zach Lowe Show. “I see IQ. I see an elite coach. Depth and coaching is very powerful in the regular season…I see a formula where this team is 45-37, and gets the sixth seed.”

This is high praise for a team that won just 37 games last year, struggled mightily on offense, and didn’t make too many changes. Duncan Robinson is out. Simone Fontecchio is in. Norman Powell and rookie Kasparas Jakucionis are the Heat’s biggest additions. Are they actually worth an additional eight wins? Especially when there’s a chance the team is downgrading by going from Robinson to Fontecchio?

Still, when you really start to dig into Miami’s prospective rotation, you realize that Lowe, like usual, is right on the money.

The Heat have real depth to their rotation

Last year’s Heat rotation was starving for impactful depth. The Jimmy Butler saga torpedoed the season, and stark regressions from Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Terry Rozier didn’t help matters.

Next year’s rotation is shaping up to be a lot better—more experienced, and dynamic. Just look at all of Miami’s options:

• Guards: Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Kasparas Jakucionis, Terry Rozier
• Wings: Andrew Wiggins, Haywood Highsmith, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Simone Fontecchio, Pelle Larsson, Keshad Johnson
• Bigs: Bam Adebayo, Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic

Quibble over the positional designations as you see fit. The primary takeaway doesn’t change: This Heat team is deep.

Even if we bake in another nothing burger of a season from Rozier and assume Larsson, Johnson and Jokucionis won’t be steady options, this remains a rotation that can span 10 actual NBA players deep.

Miami is still at the mercy of a few swing factors

Of course, the Heat still have plenty of concerns with which they must grapple.

Powell’s shooting and rim pressure adds a much-needed element to the rotation, but he doesn’t solve their biggest problem: the complete absence of a primary creator. Though Herro comes close to checking this box, he’s cut from the same cloth as Devin Booker. His playmaking is best served when it’s a secondary feature, not when it’s deployed as a floor-general facsimile.

Counting on Rozier to bounce back is a risky proposition. Miami must view his contributions as a bonus. Jakucionis profiles as a primary playmaker, but even at the height of his summer-league powers, his performance was a mixed bag.

The Heat also need to see development from Ware, Jaquez, and Jovic. If they remain stagnant or regress, the rotation loses some punch. Without Robinson’s constant motion in the fold, they must hold out hope for Fontecchio to improve upon last year’s struggles as well.

So no, the Heat are not a lock to party-crash the top of the Eastern Conference. But they have the depth to effectively navigate a long regular season. And in the event a couple of developmental projects and what-ifs break their way, they’ll be a team that’s built to shock.