The Miami Heat must make a big decision regarding the future of Tyler Herro this offseason. And there’s one recent realization that the Heat may have made that could end up changing everything about what may lie ahead for both sides.

According to a recent report, in the process of trading for Norman Powell, the Heat realized that “scoring guards aren’t going for much on the open market.” It paints a clear picture of what the Heat could be up against if they give Herro a huge contract extension, with the hopes of trading him in the future if an upgrade opportunity becomes available to them.

At the very least, this is only going to give the Heat more pause before quickly handing Herro an extension. Of, at least, it should.

Herro is eligible for a monster extension with the Heat

It’s no secret that Herro is eligible for a three-year, $150 max extension in October. Even though there have been hints over the last couple of months that the Heat are willing to wait to negotiate a new contract with Herro until next summer, there is certainly plenty of risk that comes with that approach.

In a perfect world, the Heat would be able to agree on a contract extension for Herro this summer that would work for both sides. But, especially after his best season to date in which he made his first NBA All-Star appearance, it would make little sense for Herro to settle for less money now.

Assuming that to be the case, the Heat are naturally in a difficult spot.

What options do the Heat have?

To be perfectly clear, the Heat is in a tough spot no matter what path they decide to go down. If they want to extend him, it’s not exactly that simple. Giving him the full max extension would paralyze this team’s financial situation and would eliminate all the flexibility the team has been building for next offseason.

Delaying the contract talks will put them at risk to lose him for nothing next summer.

Trading him, which could theoretically be on the table if the Heat does want to cash in this asset and avoid the risk of losing him for nothing in free agency, is not that simple, either. Even if Herro is a better player than Powell, which he probably is at this point, the market for him wouldn’t be that much greater.

I suppose we can think of it this way: How many teams are willingly going to line up to not only surrender multiple assets for Herro while also having the ability to give him the huge contract he’s going to demand after this season?

I can’t imagine there would be many. And if there are, wouldn’t it make more sense to just wait until the offseason to pursue him?

In acquiring Powell, the Heat may have come to the realization that they’re in a lose-lose long-term situation with Herro. Is there a path where it all works out, with either the Herro agreeing to a discounted deal or in a scenario in which Miami is able to trade him for two first-round picks and expiring salary? Sure, but that probability can’t be high.

This is not even necessarily only about Herro as a talent. He’s a really good player, but just not the best fit for the Heat right now. If Miami wants to get back to championship contender status, there are minimal scenarios that help them get there with Herro (at max money) on the roster. That’s the unfortunate truth. Maybe the Heat have finally realized that.