As the Kansas City Chiefs continue on their journey to win a third Super Bowl title in a row, they also have to think ahead to what’s at stake during the offseason. General manager Brett Veach and company always have a difficult balancing act of present versus future and with a three-peat at the forefront, things get tricky regarding the offseason.
With limited resources from a salary cap standpoint, free agency becomes even more challenging to spend in. Big-money contracts to players like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Joe Thuney and Jawaan Taylor already make up a big chunk of the roster. Two specific players, however, could push for pay bumps in the spring as well. As right guard Trey Smith and linebacker Nick Bolton finish their rookie contracts, what’s the latest on their respective outlooks?
In a recent article for ESPN, analyst Matt Bowen and senior reporter Jeremy Fowler dove into their top 25 pending free agents. Smith (No. 2) and Bolton (No. 19) both made the cut, with Fowler doing his best to relay what he’s gathered regarding both players.
“The Chiefs would love to re-sign Smith but know that will be tough,” Fowler wrote. “In fact, there’s an expectation that Smith could become the highest-paid guard in the NFL. The top of the market currently sits at $21.5 million per year, and the Chiefs are at least bracing for life without him because of that price. Smith is a top-10 interior lineman in the league, and the Panthers giving Robert Hunt a $100 million free agency deal back in March had to get Smith’s attention.”
It should come as no surprise that given the recent explosion of the guard market, Smith figures to cash in when March rolls around. Spotrac lists his market value at $18.6M per year, which would rank right alongside the likes of Samuel Cosmi and Zack Martin but not top the leaderboard. It’s this writer’s opinion that regardless of whether he’s that caliber of player, Smith will command even more. He’s young, durable, high-character and might still be ascending. That, combined with being a good-but-not-elite player, is oftentimes enough to garner top compensation.
Among players with at least half as many snaps played as him this year, Smith is the fifth-ranked guard in the Pro Football Focus database for overall offense grade. He’s also fifth in run blocking and 20th in pass blocking. The former sixth-round pick is a classic story in late-draft risks paying off and while he isn’t focused on anything contract-related right now, multiple teams will be here in a handful of months. If Kansas City is included, Veach will have his work cut out for him (as Fowler noted).
What could a Nick Bolton deal in Kansas City look like?
“There’s a path for Bolton to remain in Kansas City,” Fowler wrote. “The Chiefs linebacker is a team leader with great intangibles. Assuming the Chiefs can’t front the bill on Trey Smith, they could instead allocate resources to retain Bolton, who is more affordable as an off-ball linebacker. Bolton can work off Patrick Queen’s three-year, $41 million deal from March as a potential comp. His reps will speak to Kansas City some time after the season and see where it goes.”
Bolton’s case is equal parts, if not more interesting. The former second-round pick will be just 25 years old when he presumably hits the open market, and his box score production over the years speaks for itself. Bolton has over 400 tackles (29 for loss), 13 quarterback hits and 12 passes broken up in his regular-season Chiefs career already. When healthy, his ability to be a coach on the field and provide willing run defense makes for a valuable combination. How valuable, though, is the question. His range of outcomes seems more varied than Smith’s.
At his best, Bolton is a playmaking linebacker and a trusted leader. At his worst, however, he gets targeted in pass coverages and can get washed out of run plays. His limited athletic profile is exploited too often for him to command a top-of-market deal. The general sentiment appears to be shifting from something between $18-20M (Tremaine Edmunds, Fred Warner, Roquan Smith) and closer to a deal at the end of or just below the top five (Queen is fifth in average annual value). Is that fair for the current 68th and 87th linebacker in PFF defense and coverage grades? That’s certainly up for debate.
But like Smith, Bolton is keeping his head down and seeing where things are at later on. The Chiefs might also have to wait on him.
