Kansas City Chiefs guard Trey Smith became the NFL’s highest-paid guard in unorthodox fashion this offseason when he received the franchise tag, earning him a one-year, $23.4 million deal.

The tag is expected to be a placeholder for Smith, who has until July 15th to reach a long-term extension with the Chiefs. That timeline is coming sooner and sooner, but many still expect an extension to get done.

Kansas City essentially elected to commit to the Pro Bowl guard this offseason, trading veteran Joe Thuney to the Chicago Bears as they faced a cap crunch. And an extension makes sense for both sides, as the Chiefs would likely lower Smith’s cap hit drastically from the $23.4 million figure it currently stands at.

Now, a new deal for the guard isn’t expected to be cheap, especially after the franchise tag was placed by the Chiefs.

So, what could an extension look like for Smith?

Baseline numbers for a Trey Smith Chiefs’ contract

Smith is expected to come near or at the top of the guard market on his next contract, which the Chiefs made apparent by feeling comfortable enough to tag him with the $23.4 million salary for 2025.

Currently, the top salary for guards is held by Landon Dickerson, who signed a four-year, $84 million deal last offseason. The top overall compensation is Chris Lindstrom’s five-year, $102 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons, while the top guaranteed money figure is $60 million on Quenton Nelson’s four-year, $80 million deal with the Indianapolis Colts.

Those are all numbers to keep in mind for Smith, who is only entering his age-26 season.

A four or five-year deal could be the big question here. The Chiefs aren’t strangers to record-breaking contracts, topping the market last offseason with center Creed Humphrey’s four-year, $72 million deal.

While I don’t expect Smith to earn a long-term salary that matches his current franchise tag figure, he could very well top the numbers above on a record-setting deal.

Projecting a new Trey Smith’s Cheifs deal

A four-year contract makes sense for Smith, given that he’ll likely want a chance to test the market once again in his prime.

Given his leverage, he should top Landon Dickerson’s $21 million-per-year salary. The question comes down to the guarantees. Quenton Nelson currently has the top mark at $60 million in total guarantees, and I think Smith will ultimately beat that.

The Chiefs haven’t shied away from handing guaranteed money to their top players, especially along the offensive line. They gave Humphrey nearly 70 percent of his total compensation guaranteed. $60 million (75 percent) of Jawaan Taylor’s four-year, $80 million deal was guaranteed.

So, I think that barrier will also be broken by Smith in a precedent-setting deal over the next two weeks. The guard should get his first two years, plus a signing bonus handed at signing, but it seems both sides want to be in Kansas City for the long haul, and this projection represents that.