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Josh Giddey #3 of the Chicago Bulls looks to make a play against the Phoenix Suns.

The Chicago Bulls are heading toward a potentially franchise-altering decision on Josh Giddey, the prized and sole acquisition in the trade that sent Alex Caruso to the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

Giddey is a restricted free agent this offseason. The expectation is he will seek a deal worth roughly $30 million annually. That is where things could get tricky for the Bulls.

ESPN’s Zach Kram listed an extension for Giddey as the “one move”  the Bulls “should make.”

“One move they should make: Extend restricted free agent guard Josh Giddey, who averaged nearly a triple-double from mid-February on. But Chicago … shouldn’t go overboard with its offer to Giddey, who still has obvious limitations in a playoff setting and likely won’t have many outside suitors,” Kram wrote on June 29. “If the Bulls’ offer climbs into, say, Immanuel Quickley’s range (five years, $175 million), they’ve made a mistake.”

Giddey, who turns 23 in October, was the No. 6 overall pick of the 2021 draft. That gives him four years of experience. Because of that, he is eligible for a max contract worth 25% of the salary cap in the year that it begins.

That would mean a deal starting at $38.6 million for Giddey in 2025-26. That is if the Bulls decided to go that far.

However, there are significant doubts that the Bulls will need to reach the $30 million mark.

Bulls Urged to Put Cap on Josh Giddey Contract Talks

The Brooklyn Nets are the only team that has the cap space this offseason. There are no other readily available threats to lure Giddey away from the Bulls in free agency this offseason. Spotrac’s Keith Smith argued that a $25 million AAV should be enough for both sides.

“You have to factor in where the cap growth has gone. So, I think if it gets much north of $25 [million, maybe $28 million, you have to start thinking, ‘All right, we’re going the other way.’ Here’s the challenge: Who’s giving him that kind of offer? I don’t know that there’s a team out there that’s going to give it to him,” Smith told Laurence Holmes and Matt Spiegel on “Spiegel & Holmes” on June 27.

“That’s where I think that the Bulls, it kind of works a little bit more in their favor. Maybe more towards the $25 million range for a guy like Josh Giddey, than getting up into the $28 [million], $30 million. Because I just don’t think the Nets are parachuting in with an offer like that. Nor do I think a team’s coming in with anything like that through sign-and-trade.”

There is also the matter of whether the Bulls should even extend Giddey on the lower end this offseason. But Smith argued that such a deal would be just fine, given the rising salary cap.

“I think it’s okay because they don’t have a lot of long-term salary locked up on their books. And the important thing to note is a salary that’s less than $30 million sounds crazy, right? Because that was close to a max deal. The lowest in max deal next season is $38.6 million,” Smith said.

“If you’re under $30 million, you’re talking about 20% of the cap or so, and then it won’t grow as much as the cap will grow over the next couple years. You can pitch the idea of, ‘Hey, just don’t do that. Let’s go into next summer with a whole crap-ton of cap space because they would only have a couple deals on the book, so they could really be in a good spot to go after people.”

Smith argued that his last point is antithetical to how the Bulls have operated in recent years.

Still, the bottom line is that the Bulls should work to retain Giddey. That is, so long as they do not get caught bidding against themselves in an overpay.

Bulls’ Track Record Very Informative

The Bulls have the flexibility to retain Giddey and add to their roster this offseason, if they so choose.

“Chicago Bulls have a ton of flexibility to increase their payroll,” NBA cap analyst Yossi Gozlan posted on X on June 28. “They have enough luxury tax room to re-sign Josh Giddey and use their $17.2 million trade exception or $14.1 million non-tax mid-level.

“First apron hard cap.”

However, Kram pointed to their recent history with the likes of Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, and, more recently, Patrick Williams.

All three players signed lucrative deals with the Bulls, only for the team to turn around and have difficulty trading them. The Bulls were already lambasted for passing on first-round draft picks for Caruso but accepting Giddey alone.

An overpay could send the negative narrative around the organization into overdrive.

Josh Buckhalter covers the NBA and NFL for Heavy.com. He has covered both leagues since 2016, including bylines at FanSided, Last Word on Sports and Clocker Sports. He’s based in Villa Park, Illinois. Follow Josh on Twitter and Instagram: @JoshGBuck More about Josh Buckhalter