Part of the Miami Heat’s future became more painfully clear after the huge domino that was the Davion Mitchell signing. Now that Mitchell is locked up for the Heat, after agreeing to a two-year, $24 million deal with the team, Duncan Robinson’s offseason fate has likely been sealed. There’s likely a good chance he’s played his last game in a Heat uniform.

During his end-of-the-season press conference about a month ago, Pat Riley made it clear before the start of Miami’s offseason moves that they want to remain below the luxury-tax level this season, unless, of course, they’re able to land a big fish. Now that the star acquisition hopes have pretty much sunk, getting under the tax was likely going to be one of the priorities for the Heat this summer.

After the signing of Mitchell, the Heat are currently on track to be roughly $8 million above the luxury-tax threshold, assuming no other moves are made. That would put Miami on track to emerge as a luxury-tax team for a third straight season. Because of the daunting repeater tax (which penalizes teams for being a luxury-tax team in three out of the last four years), that’s something the Heat would like to avoid.

The easiest path for the Heat to get under the tax line again likely includes parting ways with Robinson.

What the future holds for Robinson

There are a few different ways the next few days can go between the Heat and Robinson. The first is that Robinson can terminate the final year of his contract before June 29. There’s not much time for him to make such a move, but I suppose that’s still on the table.

If Robinson wants, he could terminate the deal and re-negotiate a contract with the Heat. It’s probably not a likely scenario, but it’s certainly an option. The Heat could also look to trade Robinson’s expiring contract. Robinson’s contract holds value because it’s not fully guaranteed until July 8. If there’s a team looking to get off a big contract of their own in exchange for Robinson, who they could then waive before the guaranteed deadline, perhaps that’s a scenario that could work for Miami.

However, I’m a bit bullish on that scenario. The final and most likely scenario probably revolves around the Heat waiving Robinson before the July 8 deadline in order to get out from under his guaranteed contract. It’s not ideal and would essentially be the Heat burning an asset for nothing, but this is the path the team has laid before them after not trading him when his value was higher than it is at the moment.

Of course, the Heat could avoid this all if they’re able to trade Terry Rozier or Andrew Wiggins (for significantly less salary) at some point this offseason. However, if the Heat isn’t confident they’ll be able to pull that off, waiving Robinson is probably the most likely outcome for Miami. If that ends up being the case, Robinson has had a great run with the Heat.