In Monday morning’s Arrowheadlines, we noted NFL.com columnist Jeffri Chadiha’s recent list of 10 bold predictions for 2025. Specifically, we noted his belief that the Denver Broncos would knock off the Kansas City Chiefs as AFC West champions this season.

But that wasn’t the only statement on Chadiha’s list we’d like to address.

1. The Bills will win the Super Bowl.

This is bold simply because the Bills have dealt with so much heartache over the last five seasons. They’ve lost four playoff games to the Chiefs (including two AFC title bouts) and suffered another home defeat to the Bengals in the 2022 Divisional Round. This team has too much talent and smart coaching to continually miss out on opportunities to get over the hump, which is why this prediction makes so much sense today. Quarterback Josh Allen is coming off his first MVP season. The defense added some nice pieces in the 2025 NFL Draft, including speedy cornerback Maxwell Hairston and edge rusher Landon Jackson. The schedule also looks favorable, with Buffalo playing 10 games against teams that didn’t produce a winning record in 2024. There’s basically never been a better time for the Bills to earn the top seed in the AFC and potentially host a conference championship game. And if they can do that, they should win the whole damn thing.

My take

In both of these prognostications involving the Chiefs, Chadiha is depending on the usual flawed logic: “It could have happened before, but it didn’t. So it must be happening now.” This is the same reasoning that roulette players use when they bet on 17 because the marble hasn’t fallen in 17 all evening. It doesn’t work any better for them than it’s likely to work for Chadiha.

That’s not to say that the Bills can’t win the next Super Bowl — or that the Broncos can’t win this season’s AFC West title. Both of those things are indeed possible. But they’re not more likely because Buffalo has lost four playoff games to Kansas City — or because Denver lost 2024’s Week 10 game to the Chiefs on a blocked field goal.

We know this because that’s how probability works. Every random event is entirely independent of every other random event. Just because a coin toss has come up heads 10 times in a row doesn’t mean it is more likely to come up heads on the next flip. The probability it will happen is exactly the same: 50%.

And besides… these aren’t random events. These are games between professional football teams. Sometimes we see that one team can get another team’s number — and sometimes, it’s only in the playoffs. Between 2013 and 2018, Kansas City went 2-1 against the New England Patriots. But you probably remember that in that same period, the Chiefs went 0-2 against the Patriots in the postseason.

So it is with Buffalo. In the last four years, it has defeated Kansas City in four straight regular-season games — and in the previous five, it has lost four straight playoff games to the Chiefs.

Let’s not kid ourselves. In every game Kansas City plays against the Bills or Broncos in 2025, both opponents will be putting everything on the line. Both teams will have solid chances to defeat a squad that’s been to three consecutive Super Bowls.

But until they claim those wins in postseason matchups, the Chiefs will still have the advantage. That’s why — at least for now — Chadiha’s predictions must be labeled as “bold.”