Coming off a successful weekend in Colorado and a very solid road trip, the Mets (42-24) are flying high and set to host the middling Nationals (30-35) for a three-game series at Citi Field beginning this evening.

Sitting 11.5 games back of the Mets, the Nationals are in third place in the National League East, 7.5 games behind the second-place Phillies and two games ahead of the underwhelming Braves. Their lineup has been below average but respectable with an average of 4.23 runs scored per game, a tick below the major league average of 4.31. And the fact that they’ve managed to stay this close to .500 is somewhat remarkable, as Nationals pitchers have given up 5.02 runs per game, the seventh-highest rate in baseball.

Add all of that up, and Washington has a -51 run difference at the moment, which is the reason that metrics like ESPN’s expected W-L have them at a deserved record of 27-38, which would have them one game behind Atlanta instead of two in front of them.

Still, this is a more respectable unit than the one the Mets beat three times in Colorado over the weekend and six times within their past ten games—even if the same could be said for all of the other teams in baseball that aren’t the Rockies. Among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances this year, James Wood is following up a promising rookie campaign last year with an excellent one in his first full season in the big leagues. The 22-year-old has hit .270/.366/.533 with 16 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 150 wRC+, and the Nationals’ typical lineup has had him in the two hole. Mets pitchers should tread carefully with him in big spots in this series.

Beyond Wood, the Nationals have three hitters who have been better than league average thus far: Alex Call (132 wRC+), CJ Abrams (120 wRC+), and former Mets shortstop Amed Rosario (111 wRC+).

On the mound, Nationals starters have a 4.32 ERA that ranks 21st in baseball, while the team’s bullpen has a downright awful 5.81 ERA that is the second-worst mark in the game.

For all the hullabaloo surrounding Juan Soto’s first series against the Yankees a few weeks ago after that team traded for him as a rental player and failed to retain him in free agency, it’s worth remembering that Soto is facing the organization with which he spent the overwhelming majority of the first phase of his career. He’ll eclipse that tenure and then some with the Mets, but Soto has hit very well lately and looks to be feeling much more like his usual self at the plate.

The bar for this series isn’t quite as high as it was for the series against the Rockies, during which anything less than a sweep would have been disappointing, but the Mets should at least win this series against a Nationals team that is clearly inferior to them.

Tuesday, June 10: Griffin Canning vs. MacKenzie Gore, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Canning (2025): 12 GS, 59.0 IP, 57 K, 26 BB, 6 HR, 2.90 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 75 ERA-

After struggling in a bit in back-to-back starts, one of which was interrupted and shortened by rain, Canning bounced back very nicely with six scoreless innings against the Dodgers. He struck out seven, walked one, and gave up just one hit, and he continues to impress, even if ERA-predicting metrics don’t love him quite as much as his shiny ERA.

Gore (2025): 13 GS, 75.1 IP, 108 K, 22 BB, 8 HR, 2.87 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 72 ERA-

Traded to the Nationals by the Padres as part of the return for Juan Soto, Gore has improved in each of his full major league seasons in the big leagues and is currently pitching like an ace. His strikeout rate is up to a very impressive 35.4 percent, and he’s improved his walk rate a bit, as well. He is the single biggest challenge the Mets will face in the series, but he’s averaged fewer than six innings pitched per start. Given the Nationals’ putrid bullpen, the Mets will want to get Gore out of the game as quickly as possible in the opener.

Wednesday, June 11: David Peterson vs. Jake Irvin, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Peterson (2025): 12 GS, 70.2 IP, 65 K, 25 BB, 4 HR, 2.80 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 72 ERA-

With slight improvements in his strikeout, walk, and home run rates this year, Peterson has remained nearly exactly as effective as he was in 2024 by ERA-, as he finished that season with a 73. It still looks like the hip surgery that he had following the 2023 season was absolutely crucial to unlocking his potential as a major league pitcher, and he’s legitimately fun to watch.

Irvin (2025): 13 GS, 78.1 IP, 50 K, 22 BB, 11 HR, 4.02 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 101 ERA-

Irving has frustrated the Mets at times in the past and has a respectable 3.78 ERA against them in five starts in his big league career. He’s not terrible by any means, but his low strikeout rate and high home run rate should present a good opportunity for the Mets’ lineup.

Thursday, June 12: Kodai Senga vs. Michael Soroka, 1:10 PM EDT on SNY

Senga (2025): 12 GS, 68.0 IP, 65 K, 30 BB, 4 HR, 1.59 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 41 ERA-

Among qualified starting pitchers, Senga ranks third in baseball in ERA, and while his FIP isn’t quite as kind to him, it’s worth noting that he’s been able to make up for a drop in his strikeout rate by cutting down on home runs allowed. Considering how little he pitched in 2024, what he’s done this season has already been impressive, and if he manages to improve as the season goes along—like he did in his first major league season in 2023—he’d very likely to be able to keep himself among that top tier of starting pitchers all season long.

Soroka (2025): 7 GS, 37.0 IP, 35 K, 7 BB, 6 HR, 4.86 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 122 ERA-

While it’s good to see Soroka healthy after his injury history in recent years, he’s objectively been the worst of the three pitchers the Mets will face in this series. His strikeout rate isn’t great, but he’s exceptional when it comes to limiting walks. The big problem this year has been his proclivity to serve up home runs.