Tyler Herro will be eligible to sign a three-year, $149.7 million extension on October 1 that the Miami Heat will almost assuredly offer. But he may opt against accepting it—and that’s okay. His refusal won’t be an implicit trade demand. It will be purely a business decision, because he stands to lock in more money if he waits.

If Herro passes on an extension this summer, he will have the ability to sign a four-year, $206.9 million extension during the 2026 offseason. Holding off, then, gives him a chance to secure an extra $57.2 million of financial security.

The extent to which this appeals to Herro is debatable. He doesn’t turn 25 until January. Putting pen to paper on a deal now puts him on the books through 2029-30, which will be his age-30 season. Barring unforeseen regression, this will not be his last chance to bag a big contract.

Except, this isn’t just about that extra year and $57-plus million. It’s actually about the possibility of assuring himself an extra…$230 million.

Tyler Herro could be eligible for an even bigger deal in 2026

As ESPN’s Bobby Marks previously noted, Herro will be able to get a five-year supermax contract next summer worth $379.9 million if he makes All-NBA during the 2025-26 season. Now, just because he’s eligible doesn’t mean the Heat must offer it. That deal is the equivalent of a 35 percent max. But they could scale it down to a 30 percent max. That would be worth $325.6 million over five years, which is still more than double the total amount Herro can sew up now.

Some will consider this scenario as a non-starter. After all, can Herro really make an All-NBA team?

Um, yes.

Herro just (comfortably) cleared 20 points and five assists per game while knocking down over 50 percent of his twos and more than 37 percent of his triples. Here’s the list of every other player who reached those benchmarks this past season:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• LeBron james
• Nikola Jokic

Know what all three of these stars also have in common? They all finished Second Team All-NBA or better.

To be sure, Herro isn’t on the same level as SGA, LeBron and Jokic. But he’s no less important to his own team. As of right now, the Heat do not have anyone else remotely equipped to run their offense. Herro is it.

Given Miami’s limited financial flexibility and trade assets, there is no guarantee this changes. So it would hardly be a monster surprise if Herro flirts with averaging something like 27 points and eight assists next season, on stellar efficiency. He has shown the type of touch, vision, and overarching improvement to deliver that kind of stat line when treated as the primary hub.

Regardless, Herro doesn’t need to make an All-NBA team to lock up more guaranteed money in an extension. He just needs to wait. Which he might do. If and when he does, the Heat shouldn’t panic.

They should just be prepared to pay him next summer.