Davion Mitchell showed out to close the 2025-26 regular season, emerging as a feel-good story in a year of disappointments for the Miami Heat. But his breakout can quickly turn into a problem for the organization if it makes the mistake of paying him too much in restricted free agency.

Make no mistake, Mitchell fills some important voids for the Heat. They could use a go-to point-of-attack defender who alleviates the responsibility placed upon Haywood Highsmith and Andrew Wiggins, and with Terry Rozier entering the future-Shanghai-Shark phase of his career, they absolutely need bodies with a pulse at the point guard position.

And yet, that last part is also a huge chunk of the problem. Mitchell is not a point guard. Though he averaged 5.3 assists in Miami, he isn’t someone who can initiate the entire offense. Drive-and-kicks are well within his wheelhouse. But breaking down set defenses, running efficient pick-and-rolls, and orchestrating shots for others are not in his primary wheelhouse. Even for a team like the Heat that doesn’t run the most traditional-looking offense, you need someone better.

Which isn’t to say Miami should just be done with him. But the stakes are high this offseason, and the margins are thin. If push comes to shove, the Heat must be prepared to play hardball, or simply move on.

The Heat’s cap sheet is not necessarily conducive to Davion Mitchell’s return

Assuming both Duncan Robinson (early termination option) and Terry Rozier ($24.9 million guaranteed) are both back, Miami will enter the offseason within $6 million of the luxury after accounting for the No. 20 pick. That’s with 13 players on the books, but it does not include Mitchell.

If the Heat make the 26-year-old a restricted free agent by extending him a qualifying offer, his cap hit will be just shy of $19.4 million until he signs a new deal. There is no way he gets that kind of money. The Brooklyn Nets are the only NBA team with cap space this summer, so nobody’s offering Mitchell more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $14.1 million.

Even that much money is likely a stretch. Fewer than 10 total teams have that $14.1 million tool to spend, and barely any of them will be in the market for a guard who’s neither a floor general nor reliable shooter.

There’s a real chance Miami ends up negotiating against itself in talks with Mitchell. That gives the Heat zero incentive to be aggressive with their offer. They could be able to get him for his qualifying offer ($8.7 million), or perhaps even less than that.

Paying him more should be out of the question. This team isn’t good enough to enter the tax, and you don’t want to shed salary just to make room for a player of Mitchell’s caliber.

Miami has bigger priorities this offseason than Mitchell

The Heat also have bigger priorities than keeping Mitchell offseason. With all due respect to Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, they need a new best player—preferably someone who can run the offense as the primary passer, and who’s no worse than the No. 2 scoring option.

Getting that type of building block will be hard, if not impossible. Miami is never going to have the best package for a star if Bam and Herro are off the table (as they should be). Joining the Kevin Durant sweepstakes is somewhat reasonable, but at this point, he’s the guy you acquire after getting The Guy, not The Guy himself.

Rather than prioritizing the return of Mitchell and potential star trades, the Heat should be contemplating the value of a gap year, if not a total rebuild. Of course, so long as Pat Riley is running the C-Suite, we should know better than to think Miami will start over.

At the very least, though, the organization shouldn’t do anything that jeopardizes the $30-plus million in cap space it can have next summer. Getting too caught up in the Davion Mitchell experience falls closer to the no-go end of the spectrum. He may be a useful player, but he’s not someone who materially impacts their short- or long-term ceiling. Maintaining future flexibility is more valuable to the Heat than he is.