The Bulls biggest decision this summer should be firing and replacing the front office. Failing that (so much failing), the next biggest decision is Josh Giddey’s free agency.

I wrote before the season that this entire ‘plan’ hinged on Giddey’s progress, as the Bulls completely screwed up the teardown part of their ‘roster transition’ to have so much riding on a very flawed player:

I thought at least if Giddey didn’t develop, team circumstances would at least have proven this one way or another. There were some assumptions by me heading into the season that didn’t play out:

• Zach LaVine played a lot
• Lonzo Ball played at all
• Matas Buzelis played more, and overtook Giddey as the team’s most intriguing prospect

So what wound up happening was actually worse: Giddey played better, but only after minutes/possessions freed up during a time in the NBA calendar that is notoriously goofy. So not only are we still not sure what Giddey can really do, we have to fear that Bulls management, led by Arturas Karnisovas, will have their biases confirmed by insufficient evidence and drastically overpay Giddey this summer.

This fear is justified, because though the Bulls have the least curious reporting corps in the league and thus we have no real insight into ‘AK’s thinking’, the Overton window has shifted when discussing Giddey’s next contract. Now, due to a stretch in Mickey Mouse March, you hear things like ‘$30M is expected‘, and ‘$25M would be a steal, the cap is going up!’.

NO.

The Bulls don’t have to give in! Restricted Free Agency has historically screwed the player, which in general is bad but as a fan of the Bulls not screwing themselves for no reason it should be used to their advantage.

Instead of hypothetical comparisons like ‘well, Immanuel Quickley and Jalen Suggs got these contracts, and Josh Giddey is also a young starting guard…’, ask more practical market-reinforcing hypotheticals:

1. What team with cap space this summer would sign Josh Giddey?
2. What team with a star and looking for assets would want Josh Giddey in a sign-and-trade?
3. If another team thought Giddey was a desired “young player with experience”, what draft selection could you get in a trade return at a $30M contract? How about $20M?
4. Would the Raptors trade Immanuel Quickley, who’s supposedly overpaid, for Josh Giddey?

I find the silence of any of these discussions, in a league that’s awash in rumors and speculation all the time about every player, to not be indication that the league knows Josh Giddey is staying with the Bulls so it’s not worth considering. It’s an indication that there is no market for Josh Giddey.

At $25M, let alone $30M, you’d be signing him to a contract that is immediately ‘bad money’ on your books, sitting right alongside Patrick Williams.

It makes sense, as Giddey is kind of stuck in the middle like the team he plays for: young/promising enough to get paid more than a role player, but not good enough to get a salary where you’d have to build a team on the floor and on the cap sheet with him in special consideration.

The window of what’s an acceptable contract for Giddey is not $30M, or even $20M. It’s actually closer to $14M, the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. That is a range where teams without cap space can make an offer and thus his options open up way more.

Of course, I don’t expect Giddey to take a contract in that range. He likely would instead accept the one year qualifying offer at $11M, bet on himself to then hit the market again next summer as an Unrestricted Free Agent.

Would that be so bad?

For one thing, the Bulls much-ballyhooed 2026 plan would be impacted adversely if a large guarantee is on the books for Giddey. Giddey himself will be motivated to play well, maybe even improve defensively (!).

Then, his 2025-26 season plays out in three ways:

1. Giddey confirms his improvement over the 2nd half of last season was real, and you sign him to roughly the same amount you’re talking about now.
2. Giddey slides back to his prior level, which includes his terrible first half of last season, and there’s a limited market in unrestricted free agency where the Bulls would still have Bird Rights, giving them an advantage over capped-out teams.
3. Giddey takes a leap (maybe even helping you win games?), and you might have to pay more than you would’ve if you signed him this summer. While more teams have cap space in 2026, you still have the aforementioned Bird Rights advantage and ability to sign-and-trade.

A scenario I do not see happening, but one that I’ve seen speculated on is that Giddey plays great, but out of spite (?) takes less or similar money to leave in free agency and the Bulls have nothing to show for their Alex Caruso gift trade.

Again, we really don’t know because there is so little credible reporting on the Bulls, but it sure seems like the Bulls operate out of fear of that implausible scenario. Not all the time, as evidenced by how Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu’s free agency played out two summers ago. But it certainly was the case with Patrick Williams. You’d hope that would be a mistake so recent and so egregious that it would give the Bulls pause this summer.

And maybe it will give them pause! All the more reason we can do our part as a fanbase and not simply assume they will do the dumbest thing they can and preemptively cope by rationalizing it. It won’t actually contribute anything meaningful, but will help our collective well-being.