If the Miami Heat are going to return to the ranks of the NBA’s best, then nothing will prove more important during the 2025 offseason than how the franchise handles Tyler Herro’s contract extension eligibility.

Herro, 25, has given Miami ample reason for intrigue with his quality of play. He finished the 2024-25 regular season averaging 23.9 points, 5.5 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 0.9 steals, and 3.3 three-point field goals made per game on .472/.375/.878 shooting.

In the process, Herro secured his first career All-Star Game appearance—adding to an already solid résumé that includes the 2022 Sixth Man of the Year award and 2020 All-Rookie honors.

It’s also worth noting that Herro has already played 50 playoff games with the Heat at 25 years of age. He averaged 33.6 minutes per game during Miami’s run to the 2020 NBA Finals, and thrived as the sixth man when the Heat pushed the Boston Celtics to seven games in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals.

All of this seems to amount to an easy decision: Extend Herro and continue to invest in what has become a steadily upward trajectory.

Handing Herro a colossal financial figure, however, comes with a significant element of risk. He’s been well worth the money he’s been paid up to this point in time, but the contract extension he’s in line to receive would result in the need for significant individual improvement.

Whether fair or foul, when the conversation revolves around contracts in a salary-capped league, a player is either worth the cap hit or their financial figure is limiting their team’s potential.

Tyler Herro’s extension would require him to reach an entirely new level

According to Bobby Marks of ESPN, Herro is eligible for a three-year, $149.7 million extension if he and the team sign the dotted line before Oct. 20. If they wait until next offseason, Herro would be able to sign a four-year, $206.9 million extension.

In the event that Herro is selected to an All-NBA team during the 2025-26 season, then he would be eligible for a supermax contract of five years and $380 million.

In other words: Miami can sign Herro to an extension before Oct. 20 at $49.9 million per additional season, or risk having to pay him an average of $76 million a year. On that level alone, it’s hard to disagree with anyone who suggests that the Heat should pay Herro now and save itself a headache later.

The question is: Can Miami realistically argue that Herro’s current level of play is worth $49.9 million against the cap? If not, is there a strong enough argument to support the belief that he’s on his way to living up to that figure on a nightly basis?

If the answer to those questions is no, then it would be irresponsible to extend Herro simply because he’s thus far developed into an All-Star within their system.

Is Tyler Herro a max-level player?

Herro is coming off of the best individual season of his career. Unfortunately, Miami’s 2024-25 campaign bordered on being a disaster, as the team lost Jimmy Butler amid a public dispute, went 37-45 and was unceremoniously swept out of the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs.

To make matters worse, three of the Heat’s four playoff losses were by at least 21 points—including a 37-point loss at home in Game 3 and a 55-point drubbing in Miami in Game 4.

Herro struggled to provide much resistance as the Heat’s season went up in flames. He scored 21 points in Game 1 and was sensational with 38 in Game 2, but posted 13 points on 5-of-13 shooting in Game 3 and scored a mere four points while going 1-of-10 from the field in Game 4.

It was an ugly ending to an otherwise promising season from Herro, who seemed to take a step forward until the postseason lights were fixed on his performances.

The context, of course, is that Herro hadn’t been tasked with running the offense to the extent he did in 2024-25 until the Jimmy Butler saga ended catastrophically. Perhaps another season in a featured role is all Herro needs to take the next step.

As the Heat stare down the difference between $49.9 million and $76 million per season, however, the impossible task of deciding how to proceed looms large in Miami.