On Wednesday, ESPN rolled out its latest “football power index” rankings — which sees the Kansas City Chiefs ranked second (+5.4), behind only the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (+5.5). The “football power index” is a ratings and projection model.
A Super Bowl rematch?
The football power index projects a 4.2% chance of a Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl rematch.
“Two of the past three Super Bowls have been between Kansas City and Philadelphia,” wrote ESPN’s Seth Walder. “Will it be three of four? The 4.2% chance of a Super Bowl LIX repeat is the greatest of any combination of teams in our Super Bowl matchup projections, slightly besting the 3.6% chances of Ravens- Eagles and Bills- Eagles matchups. Top combinations are listed below and rounded to the nearest whole number.”
My take
There is a popular quote most often attributed to ESPN’s Chris Berman: “That’s why they play the games.”
Right now, of course, a Chiefs-Eagles rematch seems to be the most likely outcome; yet, even in these sophisticated projections, there is still a 95.8% chance it’s something else. I can confidently assume that the 30 other NFL cities hope it falls that way.
The one thing I do think holds some weight is the separation that still exists between Kansas City and the other AFC West teams. At this time of year, it’s common for national analysts to favor up-and-coming teams rather than the status quo. Frankly, bold statements are more fun — and the chances of anyone remembering them by mid-February are slim.
There is no doubt that Kansas City’s AFC West foes all improved, but what is sometimes lost is that the Chiefs did as well. Kansas City may be healthier at receiver this year, and they added key pieces in both free agency and the NFL Draft. Left tackle Jaylon Moore and cornerback Kristian Fulton are likely starters. High-upside rookie Josh Simmons could take over the tackle position midseason, and defensive linemen Omarr Norman-Lott and Ashton Gillottee had some of the best pass-rush numbers in the draft.
Analytical projections eliminate the legitimacy of the hot take. While I do believe the division might be highly competitive as early as next year, my stance has always been that we’re still a year away. These projections reflect that, with Kansas City at +5.4, the Los Angeles Chargers at +2.1, the Denver Broncos at +1.3 and the Las Vegas Raiders at -2.0.
In summary, I don’t think we’re in for a Chiefs-Eagles rematch. But I feel very comfortable saying I like Kansas City to win a 10th straight division title.
