UPDATE: Predicting overs and unders for the 2025 Chiefs’ defense

Let’s try to predict how Kansas City’s defense will fare in 2025.

Last week, we crunched the numbers and tried to predict overs and unders for the Kansas City Chiefs offense. For the most part, we took a pretty positive outlook on this Chiefs team offensively. But if Kansas City hopes to push for a fourth consecutive Super Bowl appearance, it must remain one of the league’s top defensive units.

That said, there are definitely areas where the team can outperform last season — most notably in the pass rush, where they tied the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints with just 41 total sacks. That’s a steep drop from their 57 sacks in 2023, and if the Chiefs want to dominate in 2025, getting back to that level of pressure will be critical.

Just like we did with the offense, we’ll examine five key statistical categories and assign an over-under number for each. Then we’ll predict whether the Chiefs will likely hit or miss it.

Note: While we heavily considered past statistics, this project is, by definition, rooted in projections and educated guesses.

Sacks

There’s no sugarcoating it: the Chiefs’ defense took a step back in this category. After registering 57 sacks in 2023, they managed just 41 in 2024, a noticeable drop-off in production when it came to getting after opposing quarterbacks 39 times in 2024. It was the team’s lowest sack total since 2021, when they only registered 31 sacks.

There were a lot of factors that contributed to the Chiefs’ sack total last season. One major issue was the injury to Charles Omenihu, which kept him out for most of the year. Another was the lack of an interior pass rusher to line up next to Chris Jones, allowing teams to double-team him with minimal consequence.

The team addressed this issue in the draft, selecting both Omarr Norman-Lott and Ashton Gillotte.

In this model, I’m adding +15 sacks to account for the addition of the rookies and Omenihu’s return to health. However, I’m also subtracting -6 sacks due to the loss of Turk Wharton.

I’m also factoring in that George Karlaftis and Mike Danna are both entering contract years, which adds motivation to produce.

Projected sacks: 49

My take: Over

The Chiefs topped 50 sacks in both 2022 and 2023. With this infusion of young talent and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s love of creative blitzes, I see Kansas City returning to the half-century mark again.

Interceptions

If we look at recent Chiefs history, we’ll see that they usually average somewhere between 12 and 13 interceptions per season.

Based on the quarterbacks they’re facing — and where and when those games happen —you’ll land on a similar number if you start crunching the digits. The improvements at cornerback are offset by the loss of Justin Reid and the lingering questions at safety.

So, all things considered, I think we’re in for a year that mirrors what the Chiefs did in 2024.

Projected interceptions: 13

My take: Push

The Chiefs’ secondary could very well improve without necessarily generating more turnovers. More interceptions would be nice, but that’ll largely depend on whether the safeties are in over their heads next year.

Forced fumbles

Kansas City Chiefs v Los Angeles Chargers

Fumbles are funny because they’re 100% preventable, and yet the best players in the game always seem to feast when the opportunity presents itself.

The Chiefs usually record 12 forced fumbles or fewer, and it’s hard to see them exceeding that number this season. An optimistic take might project one or two more, especially with an improved pass rush, but I’m not entirely sold on that idea.

Projected forced fumbles: 12

My take: Under

Fumbles are just too unpredictable. 12 could be the high-water mark, or they could stumble into a few more. That’s the nature of the game.

Defensive touchdowns

NFL: FEB 12 Super Bowl LVII - Eagles vs Chiefs

This one is even harder to predict. You’re essentially looking at the roster and the schedule and trying to guess how many of the 25 combined fumbles and interceptions will turn into touchdowns.

Historical data suggests it happens a couple of times per season; however, last year it only occurred once.

Then again, you never know how the ball is going to bounce.

Projected defensive touchdowns: 2

My take: Push

You never know when it’s going to happen, but that unpredictability is exactly what makes it so rare and fun to watch.

Points allowed per game

The 2024 Chiefs allowed the fourth-fewest points per game, giving up just 19.2 on average. But in 2025, they’re facing a much tougher schedule, including matchups against the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills, to name a few.

That’s not to say the Chiefs can’t outperform last season, but it’s clear the defense has its work cut out in 2025.

Projected points allowed per game: 20

My take: Over

The Chiefs’ defense overperformed for large stretches last season. It will be tough to replicate that level of execution again this year.