There are layers to every trade made in the NBA. Numerous variables exist, making a cumulative grade to any trade all but impossible. The infamous swap of Alex Caruso for Josh Giddey involving the Oklahoma City Thunder and Chicago Bulls is a classic example.

As soon as the trade was completed, fans and those around the league groaned at the notion of Chicago shipping an All-NBA defender to a 60-win squad in exchange for a player who requested a trade. To make matters worse, the Bulls had just traded for a player who was benched in the postseason because of several glaring weaknesses.

The Giddey-for-Caruso trade discourse has been all over the place

The move was ill-advised from the beginning, even more so because the Bulls failed to acquire any draft compensation from the treasure trove of draft assets that the Thunder possesses. In the aftermath of the deal, Bleacher Report gave the Bulls a grade of D-, and the Thunder an “A++++++”. CBS Sports was a tad more generous, handing Chicago a C- and Oklahoma City only an A+.

The discourse could go on and on, but after two examples, the point is made. Praise of the Bulls’ decision to acquire Giddey was nowhere to be found. Months later, the trade didn’t look any better for Chicago. Giddey struggled to begin his fourth professional season, averaging 12.2 points and shooting below 45.0 percent from the floor prior to the All-Star break.

Moreover, Caruso wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. The 6-foot-5 guard’s three-point efficiency fell off a cliff (32.1 percent pre-All-Star), and his counting stats left much to be desired. Amid a relatively disappointing inaugural campaign in Oklahoma City, the Thunder still felt inclined to reward Caruso with a contract extension. The Thunder shelled out a four-year, $81 million extension to retain the then-30-year-old guard.

Extending a soon-to-be 31-year-old for four more seasons at $20 million per year would have been a catastrophic move for the rebuilding Bulls, thus, the once ill-advised swap appeared much better in hindsight.

Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Giddey’s game reached new heights. Although not entirely out of nowhere, Zach LaVine’s departure played a role, Giddey took a major leap in February. The 22-year-old averaged 19.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 6.4 assists in his first full month without LaVine on the roster. The increased counting stats weren’t the only revelation. Giddey’s three-point percentage skyrocketed to 53.6 percent on 56 attempts. Sure, one would expect Giddey’s role to increase with Lavine in Sacramento, but a drastic uptick in efficiency was out of the blue.

The Aussie continued to string together one impressive performance after another. He averaged 20.3 points in March before totaling a triple-double, 20.8 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 10.8 assists in April. Giddey’s phenomenal post-All-Star break run included a 25-point triple-double with a halfcourt buzzer-beater to boot against the Los Angeles Lakers; an otherworldly 28-point, 16-rebound, 11-assist, 2-steal, and 3-block performance against the Miami Heat; and a 25-point double-double in Chicago’s Play-In Tournament defeat.

The trade teetered from borderline imprudent to deliberately ingenious within a year. However, there’s still a kicker. The Bulls haven’t played since April 16, while Caruso’s squad is five wins away from hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

Caruso’s value is at an all-time high during the Thunder’s playoff run

Of course, Caruso isn’t solely responsible for the Thunder’s newfound dominance. He ranked ninth on the team in scoring, seventh in player efficiency rating, fifth in box plus/minus, and eighth in win shares. As a matter of fact, he’s not even the runaway favorite for Oklahoma City’s best defender on a team that includes Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, and Cason Wallace.

Yet, Caruso’s value has never been higher amid the Thunder’s tremendous postseason run. He ranks fifth on the team in scoring, sixth in player efficiency rating, second in box plus/minus, and fifth in win shares on a team with the MVP and numerous current and future All-Stars.

Although this won’t necessarily show up on the box score, the former Aggie was crucial in Oklahoma City’s efforts to knock off the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals. Caruso defended the 7-foot, 280-pound Nikola Jokic and held him to 4-of-12 shooting throughout the series and a noticeably flustered performance in Game 7.

Caruso is an all-world difference-maker in the increasingly physical postseason. Both his minutes and production have increased from the regular season to the postseason. The same cannot be said of Giddey, whose painstakingly poor playoff performance from a season ago ultimately led to his departure. Giddey averaged merely 8.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists for Oklahoma City last season.

Just like we prefaced, there are layers to each and every trade. Are the Thunder the winners because of Caruso’s wonderful postseason impact? Or does the “winner” distinction go to Chicago after Giddey’s awe-inspiring finish to the 2024-25 season? Those who value playoff success will assuredly side with the Thunder, while those who value Giddey’s youth, potential, and all-around impact will side with the Bulls.

However, what it will eventually come down to is how much of an impact Giddey will have on the Bulls’ future. If he continues to improve and becomes a catalyst on a playoff team, Chicago will ostensibly win this trade. On the flip side, if Giddey continues to excel in the regular season without aiding in his team’s success, all while earning north of $30 million, Oklahoma City will be deemed the winners.