On Tuesday, football analytics site Pro Football Focus released its 2025 preseason quarterback rankings — with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at No. 1.

Here is the explanation from PFF writer John Kosko:

1. PATRICK MAHOMES, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Mahomes still holds the top spot, but the margin has never been slimmer. His passing grade over the past two seasons sits at 86.0, a strong number but a step below the elite level we saw from 2018 through 2022. The supporting cast hasn’t always helped, particularly at receiver, but it’s fair to say his otherworldly level of play we saw from him from 2018 to 2022 is starting to get further and further away in the rearview mirror. That said, no one blends poise, playmaking and postseason performance like Mahomes, which is why he remains at No. 1 entering 2025, even if the field is closer than ever.

The Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow (No. 2), the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (No. 3) and the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen (No. 4) all fell into behind Mahomes within the Tier 1: Elite category.

Around the AFC West, the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert came in at No. 8, Las Vegas Raiders’ Geno Smith at No. 10 and the Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix at No. 19.

Takeaway

Despite the Chiefs trading Tyreek Hill ahead of the 2022 campaign, Mahomes had his most productive season in terms of yardage that year with 5,250. Since then, he’s thrown for 4,183 yards (2023) and 3,928 yards (2024), likely due to weaker personnel at receiver and defensive coordinators adapting to his tendencies.

Over the last two years, the drop in production has seen plenty of national analysts rank Mahomes lower than he deserved, but I think Kosko nailed it in this write-up.

I agree that it is fair to say the margin between Mahomes and the pack has slimmed, though I still maintain that if most NFL decision-makers were anonymously polled to name the league’s best option, the Texas Tech product would still be the pick.

In 2023, wideout Rashee Rice emerged late in the season and into the playoffs, helping the Chiefs win their second straight Super Bowl title. The receivers behind him were Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who each finished under 500 yards.

2024 projections showed a much stronger wide receiver room for Mahomes, but a preseason injury to Hollywood Brown and Week 4’s season-ending injury to Rice changed that dramatically. Rookie Xavier Worthy took time to develop and — like Rice in his first campaign — looked the part for the final stretch, but Mahomes’ numbers were still impacted. It’s also worth remembering that future Pro Football Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce got another year older.

2025 should serve as a do-over for what might have been with that trio — and theoretically, Mahomes has a legitimate shot to return to his 2022 form. Despite the big dips in yardage, the quarterback actually had a slightly higher completion percentage in 2023 (67.2%) and 2024 (67.5%) than he did during the 5,000-yard season in 2022 (67.1%). With the additions of offensive tackles Jaylon Moore and Josh Simmons, he should also be better protected.

I see 2025 as a potential renaissance year for Mahomes, one that sees him back in the thick of the MVP conversation. Of course, for that to happen, Kansas City’s receivers will need to stay healthy.