Opening up the Miami Heat mailbag…

I’d be willing to offer Bam [Adebayo] for Dylan Harper. I think Harper is the best player in the draft. My gf is from Jersey, so I watched a lot of Rutgers this year. His game is amazing, a natural scorer, and 6’4 with a 6’10 wingspan is what u need next to Tyler

First of all, I would not do this. It’s far too risky. But it’s an interesting hypothetical, so I’ll humor you and your New Jersey girlfriend.

Harper is widely expected to go no. 2 to the San Antonio Spurs. For all the reasons you said Harper fits with Tyler Herro, he also fits with De’Aaron Fox. Anything can happen on draft night, but if the Heat truly want Harper, it appears that they’d have to trade up for the second overall pick.

Bam Adebayo would be the only asset that could force the Spurs to have a meeting about it. They wouldn’t trade no. 2 for Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, the 20th pick, or any combination of those things. The Spurs were fortunate to move up in the draft lottery (again!) and they won’t pass up an opportunity to draft a third franchise cornerstone unless bowled over by an offer.

Adebayo makes a ton of sense next to Victor Wembanyama. I’m not sure you could build a better frontcourt partner for either play in a lab. Wembanyama is everything Bam isn’t: Long, blocks shots and can shoot the 3. Adebayo is what Wembanyama isn’t (yet): Technically sound, experienced, and insanely strong.

Putting Adebayo and Wembanyama together, with Fox, Castle and Devin Vassell to round out the starting five, would be a sure-fire playoff team in the West. (Having one of Adebayo or Wembanyama on the court at all times would solve San Antonio’s Wemby-less lineup issues right away.)

But, again, young teams don’t generally trade away top-two picks.

The Heat are the NBA’s most risk-averse franchise.

And teams trying to remain competitive don’t generally trade away their franchise players for rookies who have never played an NBA possession.

Before we go any further, we should at least check out the scouting report on Harper. Here’s ESPN’s Jonathan Givony.

Harper did his best to keep the No. 1 pick conversation interesting for parts of the season with his skill level, shot creation and scoring prowess. He also can get to where he wants on the floor while demonstrating strong passing ability.

The physical nature of the NBA playoffs has emphasized why a sturdy playmaker of Harper’s type can be so valuable, with his ability to finish through contact and draw fouls a major part of his appeal, along with the way he fills up the box score with an excellent feel for the game. 

Harper has been compared to Jalen Brunson and James Harden because of his handle, craftiness and upside.

In other words, he projects to be the sort of playmaking guard worthy of building a team around. But the key word there is projects. There are no sure things in the draft, even when it seems like Cooper Flagg has a 99% chance at success. There’s always that 1%.

Perhaps a team ready to push the big red button and begin a rebuild would entertain something as risky as trading its best player for a lottery ticket, but the Heat aren’t that team. The Heat may be the most risk-averse team in the league. They don’t tank and don’t rebuild out of fear that they won’t be able to return to winning soon enough. When they have good players, they tend to hold onto them.

Harper may well go on to become a franchise player and top-10 scorer, but the Heat won’t sweat it. This is a franchise that traffics in known commodities. They aren’t messing around with Bitcoin, even if they see some of their friends enjoying huge returns. Instead, they invest steadily in the S&P 500 and enjoy their 5-10% annual growth.

Would they trade Bam for a superstar like Giannis? Now, that’s a real question and something the Heat would have to consider. But they’d prefer to add a star next to Bam, not trade him for one.