The NBA Draft has such a wide range of outcomes that predicting who’s picked where is impossible. Nonetheless, we have a very good idea of who will be picked first and even second. Duke freshman phenom Cooper Flagg will land in Dallas, while Rutgers combo guard Dylan Harper will be selected second by the San Antonio Spurs.

However, after the first two selections are made, the possibilities are endless. For much of the season, fellow Rutgers freshman Ace Bailey was the no-brainer, third-overall pick. With elite-level shotmaking for a 6-foot-10 wing, Bailey drew comparisons to Kevin Durant, Paul George, and other lanky, versatile scoring wings.

Ace Bailey’s draft combine has brought forth unwanted attention

Yet, upon closer review, Bailey more closely resembles Denver’s Michael Porter Jr. and Houston’s Jabari Smith Jr. But alas, the talented freshman measured 6-foot-7 and a half and his wingspan 7-foot and a half at the NBA Draft Combine. Bailey’s measurements alternatively resemble Boston Celtics’ star Jayson Tatum.

Standing nearly 6-foot-9 in shoes is by no means a liability. Still, throughout the pre-draft process, Bailey was listed at 6-foot-10, namely on Rutgers’ basketball team’s website. Bailey’s player comparisons, Porter Jr. measured 6-foot-9 and a half barefoot at the Draft Combine, while Smith Jr. is listed at 6-foot-10 by the Rockets.

Smaller than expected, without exciting off-the-dribble juice, Bailey’s ceiling is slowly beginning to be questioned. In a draft board seemingly out of left field, The New York Times’ John Hollinger ranked the 19-year-old as his 12th-best prospect—the lowest Bailey has been ranked in any mock draft or big board.

An NBA expert downplayed Bailey’s value

Hollinger wrote, “Bailey came into the year as the third-highest rated prospect according to most evaluators, and man, have they been stubborn in adjusting their priors. About the best that can be said for Bailey’s freshman year at Rutgers is that he managed halfway decent efficiency (53.6 percent true shooting) despite arguably the worst shot selection in college basketball.”

Harsh, yet honest. Hollinger went on to say, “…but right now, he’s a half-baked version of Jabari Smith Jr. Bailey’s basketball education will need to continue at the pro level, and you might want to be his second team rather than his first one.” Clearly, the NBA pundit isn’t a fan; he has Marquette senior Kam Jones ranked ahead of Bailey. Jones is notably unranked on The Ringer’s top-30 big board, comes in at 45 on ESPN’s, and is projected to be selected 30th overall in Bleacher Report’s latest mock draft.

Ranking Jones ahead of Bailey as a prospect his hasty, sure. Jones is 23 years old and projects as a reserve at the next level. Though the agenda Hollinger is pushing is apparent. Bailey is more of an idea at this point. He’s a superb shotmaker, but his shot selection is, at times, laughably bad. Thus, combined with a low assist percentage (8.3 percent), is Bailey a surefire offensive alpha, or is he more of a third or fourth option?

That question is why Bailey’s draft stock is anything but solidified. Two weeks prior to the combine, the NBA Draft aficionados at No Ceilings lauded Bailey as one of the higher ceiling prospects this draft cycle before lamenting, “But there are also plenty of questions to be answered with Bailey. The shot selection can be worrisome at times. Bailey is extremely raw when it comes to his game maturing.”

Lastly, Tyler Rucker of No Ceilings penned, “I’ll be fascinated to see how the pre-draft process goes for Bailey. A strong process could cement him near the top 4. A questionable one could make for an interesting draft night.” Bailey’s combine performance has teetered on the edge of questionable. Aside from an unexpected height measurement, Bailey recorded a max vertical of 34.5 inches, two inches shorter than Harper’s and an inch less than Flagg’s.

This comes after Bailey appeared far more athletically gifted than Harper during the season. Of course, workout numbers will forever be different than in-game ability. Still, a max vertical higher than Harper’s was expected. For reference, Bailey’s 34.5 max vertical is the same as Celtics’ sharpshooter Sam Hauser’s.

There’s certainly no guarantee Bailey will fall in the draft. He’s been mocked third in ESPN’s, Yahoo’s, The Athletic’s, and fourth in NBA.com’s Mock Draft. Yet, with questions piling up a month before the draft, it’s not unfeasible to expect a slight drop.

If Bailey’s draft stock craters, the Bulls must act fast

That’s where the Chicago Bulls come in. If the connection has yet to be made, the Bulls own the 12th pick in June’s draft, the same spot Hollinger ranked Bailey. Does the talented freshman fall that far from his expected draft position? Probably not, but it’s fair to wonder if he does fall, should Chicago package its 12th pick to move up and snag Bailey?

A forward with shotmaking versatility is surely intriguing to the Bulls’ Front Office. Chicago is flush with ball handlers and willing passers. The Bulls ranked fifth in the NBA in assists per game. A pass-first player fits Billy Donovan’s play style, but adding a player with Bailey’s unwavering confidence would be a boon to an offense that relies heavily on Coby White’s shotmaking.

Additionally, the 19-year-old wouldn’t have to settle for the same amount of bad shots as he did suiting up for Rutgers. Matas Buzelis, who was far more inefficient than Bailey leading up to his NBA debut, attempted almost all his threes with at least four feet of space playing alongside Josh Giddey and White. Ace is less bashful than Buzelis when it comes to his shot attempts, but with increased spacing in the NBA, especially on the Bulls, Bailey’s 34.6 percent three-point clip should improve.

After elaborating on Bailey’s weaknesses and unforeseen draft combine showing, it’s necessary to highlight his strengths, considering he’d be a steal if he were to fall beyond the top five. Bailey is smooth, possesses terrific footwork, can score all over the floor, and proved to be an equally versatile defender, averaging 1.0 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. He’s nowhere near an egregiously overrated prospect. Not many freshmen average 17.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game.

The mid-to-late lottery range might best suit Bailey. For what it’s worth, Porter Jr. was a projected first-overall pick before falling to 14th on draft night. The Nuggets’ forward’s situation is vastly different than Bailey’s. Injury concerns caused Porter Jr.’s abrupt fall. Still, the parallels are evident. Should Bailey’s draft stock decline, the Bulls must take the plunge.