Weighing the potential risks and rewards of Kansas City Chiefs 2025 first-round pick Josh Simmons

There is an element of risk and reward with every player in the draft.

No matter how much research is done on a prospect’s skills, medical records, or character, a team never truly knows how they will translate from the college game to the pros. On the flip side, sometimes a player with low expectations makes the most of their opportunity and blooms into a stud.

When you’re consistently picking at the bottom of the first round like the Kansas City Chiefs have over the past several years, you have to take some chances in order to find a potential star. They did just that with their selection of Ohio State offensive tackle Josh Simmons at No. 31 overall.

Let’s examine the possible risks and rewards that Simmons brings to the table.

Potential risks the Chiefs are taking with Simmons

Let’s start with the obvious: Simmons’ medicals. In October during a game against Oregon, Simmons suffered a torn patellar tendon that ended his 2024 season. While the Chiefs’ medical staff feels good about Simmons’ recovery, you never how well a player will bounce back until they get back on the field.

The Chiefs have also taken the risk of their first-round pick not playing much during his rookie year. They signed Jaylon Moore to a two-year, $30 million contract with $20 million guaranteed during free agency, and likely didn’t give him that amount of money to ride the bench.

While it’s nice to have depth at an important position, only one can start. It’s possible that Moore or Simmons could play on the right side, but then K.C. would be paying Jawaan Taylor big bucks to be a backup. No matter how you slice it, somebody who the Chiefs have invested significant resources in may not see the field much in 2025.

Potential rewards the Chiefs will reap from Simmons

It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Simmons ends up being the best OT of the entire 2025 draft class. Before going down with the injury, he was projected to be a top 10 pick. Getting that kind of value at No. 31, especially at the OT position, is nearly unheard of.

The Chiefs picking Simmons has affects well beyond the 2025 season. They could move on from both Moore and Taylor with very little financial ramifications in 2026, which would create another big need for an OT. When it come to the left side specifically, K.C. hasn’t had stability there since the days of Eric Fishe

If Simmons is as good as the Chiefs hope he is, they’ll have their franchise LT to protect quarterback Patrick Mahomes for years to come. Even if he ends up as a RT, there’s still a lot of value there. Simmons has already proven he can step his game up against higher competition, so it’s safe to assume he can do it again as he transitions to the NFL level.