It wasn’t too long ago that Francisco Alvarez was the No. 1 prospect in baseball. Since joining the New York Mets, Alvarez’s potential to become an impact player has been obvious: During his rookie season in 2023, the 23-year-old hit 25 home runs, seemingly stamping himself as the team’s catcher of the future.

However, regression hit in 2024, partially due to lingering injuries. And this spring, he faced another challenge thanks to a fractured hamate bone, causing him to miss the start of 2025. He’s now in the midst of a rehab assignment, and could be ready to join the Mets later this week.

Alvarez’s injury was unfortunate, especially with the Mets expecting a potential breakout season from their young catcher. Luckily, Luis Torrens has been a pleasant surprise offensively, along with providing elite defense behind the dish. The veteran catcher is hitting .333 with a .942 OPS across the 11 games he’s played this season. Hayden Senger, New York’s current backup catcher, has also played stellar defense; the duo has thrown out a surplus of runners attempting to steal bases already, something Alvarez has struggled with in the past two seasons.

That surprising production has helped keep the Mets afloat in Alvarez’s absence. But it also presents an unforeseen dilemma now that he’s almost back.

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The Mets will face a challenge when Alvarez returns

When Alvarez returns, the Mets will have to make a tough decision. Not only have Torrens and Senger been gunning down runners, but they’ve also worked extremely well with a patchwork pitching staff. Carlos Mendoza’s staff holds a collective 2.30 ERA, which leads MLB. Alvarez shouldn’t be too big a dropoff in that regard; nevertheless, you can’t ignore how well Senger and Torrens have integrated themselves.

Although Torrens is hitting the ball consistently, expecting him to continue to do that is unreasonable. He holds a career .231 batting average and a career .642 OPS. Senger isn’t raking by any stretch, as he’s posted a .586 OPS in his five games played.

The upside of Alvarez’s bat is the one thing that could make the Mets’ decision simple. Offensively, Mendoza’s squad hasn’t lived up to expectations across their first 15 games: Outside of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, the Mets aren’t getting a ton of production. The bottom of the order could be much better with Alvarez back, as he offers the ability to change the complexion of a game with one swing of that bat.

Alvarez will likely get his chance to prove this discussion is pointless. The Mets will undoubtedly keep him as the everyday catcher if he rakes. It will likely be his job to lose, even after his lackluster performance last season. He has all the tools to be a serious X-factor in the Mets’ lineup; the 23-year-old was the top prospect in baseball for a reason. Hopefully, he lives up to his expectations and has a breakout season once he returns.